Fourth Down Data
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Florida Atlantic

OwlsRun-Heavy
American Conference11-3#25 (+11.52)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

81· BOverall
Offense
90· A-Rating
94· APer play
95· AConsistency
89· BBig plays
Defense
46· CRating
42· CPer play
43· CConsistency
Situational
91· A-Red-zone O
36· DRed-zone D
94· A3rd down O
16· D3rd down D
How grades work →2017 is the earliest season the model grades — first-year numbers run a touch noisier than later seasons.

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.102
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.065
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.172
Defensive EPA/play
+0.007
lower = better
Off Success Rate
51.1%
Def Success Rate
45.4%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
26.4%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
25.6%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.165
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.011
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
3.32

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+1.75
expected pts/game
Kicking
+1.07
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.46
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.09
own return game
Return Defense
+0.13
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#25
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
model 1 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#75
model 50 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Florida Atlantic ranks among all FBS teams in 2017 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
83th
Opp-adjusted defense
28th
Offensive EPA/play
95th
Defensive EPA/play
42th
Offensive success rate
94th
Explosiveness
89th
Defensive havoc
54th
Points per drive
98th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Memphis2024OA +0.049 / -0.012similar: defensive EPA, run defense, rushing offense4112East Carolina2022OA +0.119 / -0.021similar: turnover rate, havoc rate, offensive EPA3913Memphis2018OA +0.059 / -0.073similar: rushing offense, offensive EPA, defensive success rate3824Jacksonville State2024OA +0.056 / -0.008similar: offensive success rate, offensive EPA, rushing offense3755UCF2017OA +0.155 / +0.015similar: TD drive rate, offensive success rate, offensive EPA369

2017 Schedule & Results

14 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Navy19-42L-23.0W65U
2@ Wisconsin14-31L+34.5W59.5U
3vs Bethune-Cookman45-0W-20.0W--
4@ Buffalo31-34L+1.5L58O
5vs Middle Tennessee38-20W-2.5W60U
6@ Old Dominion58-28W-5.0W57.5O
8vs North Texas69-31W-3.5W67.5O
9@ Western Kentucky42-28W-6.5W67O
10vs Marshall30-25W-6.5L63.5U
11@ Louisiana Tech48-23W-3.0W68O
12vs Florida International52-24W-14.5W65.5O
13@ Charlotte31-12W-24.5L65U
14vs North Texas41-17W-11.0W71U
17vs Akron50-3W----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
10-3
76.9%
O/U Record
6-6
50.0%
Straight Up
11-2
84.6%
Home ATS6-1
Away ATS4-2
Favorite ATS9-2
Underdog ATS1-1
Last 5 ATS
LWWLW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off96thRush Off83thRed Zone Off92th3rd Down Off95thPass Def34thRush Def47thRed Zone Def37th3rd Down Def17th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.12793th+0.00542th
Red Zone+0.22992th+0.06937th
Third Down+0.29795th+0.18117th
No Garbage Time+0.14092th-0.00647th
First Half+0.20094th-0.00743th
Second Half+0.03571th+0.01735th
Early Downs+0.06282th-0.05561th
Passing Downs+0.24896th+0.04834th
Standard Downs+0.06983th-0.02047th
Goal to Go+0.07966th-0.08359th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 35.2%Rush 64.8%
Havoc/Game
14.0
Havoc Rate
18.4%
TO Margin
+0.9
Explosive/G
16.1
Yards/Game
498.4
Pts/Drive
3.32
3rd Down%
39.7%
3&Out%
16.9%

Team Statistics

2017 season totals across 14 games — Florida Atlantic vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatFlorida AtlanticOpponents
Scoring
Points568318
Points / Game40.622.7
First Downs
Total340305
Rushing209116
Passing111163
Penalty2026
Rushing
Attempts665557
Yards3,9942,224
Yards / Carry6.04.0
Yards / Game285.3158.9
Touchdowns5222
Passing
Attempts361494
Completions234276
Completion %64.8%55.9%
Yards2,9833,230
Yards / Attempt8.36.5
Touchdowns2118
Interceptions720
Passer Rating149.55114.72
Total Offense
Plays1,0261,051
Yards6,9775,454
Yards / Play6.85.2
Yards / Game498.4389.6
Punt Returns
Returns1712
Yards15554
Average9.14.5
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns3423
Yards734399
Average21.617.3
Touchdowns10
Punting
Punts4769
Yards1,9932,820
Average42.440.9
Interception Returns
Returns207
Yards19043
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles1715
Lost66
Penalties
Penalties8270
Yards733605
Yards / Game52.443.2
Time of Possession
Per Game27:2832:32
Third Downs
Attempts184216
Conversions7385
Conversion %39.7%39.4%
Fourth Downs
Attempts3932
Conversions2414
Conversion %61.5%43.8%
Red Zone
Trips6548
Scores (TD + FG)6137
Score %93.8%77.1%
Touchdowns5027
TD %76.9%56.3%
Field Goals
Attempts2121
Made1513
Pct71.4%61.9%
PAT Kicking
Attempts6937
Made6535
Pct94.2%94.6%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts63
Made41
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →