Fourth Down Data
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MEM

Memphis

TigersBalanced
American Conference11-2#31 (+4.68)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

77· BOverall
Offense
87· BRating
89· BPer play
81· BConsistency
67· CBig plays
Defense
55· CRating
41· CPer play
69· CConsistency
Situational
72· BRed-zone O
8· FRed-zone D
97· A+3rd down O
22· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.049
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.012
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.127
Defensive EPA/play
+0.015
lower = better
Off Success Rate
49.3%
Def Success Rate
43.6%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.7%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.5%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.112
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.193
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.91

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.46
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.43
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.02
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.04
own return game
Return Defense
+0.06
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#31
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#24
AP 7 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
#17
market 14 higher
Recruiting Rank
#63
model 32 spots higher
3 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Memphis ranks among all FBS teams in 2024 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
89th
Opp-adjusted defense
34th
Offensive EPA/play
90th
Defensive EPA/play
41th
Offensive success rate
81th
Explosiveness
68th
Defensive havoc
75th
Points per drive
95th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1NC State2017OA +0.101 / +0.021similar: pass defense, run defense, passing offense4202Florida Atlantic2017OA +0.102 / -0.065similar: defensive EPA, run defense, rushing offense4113Texas2019OA +0.093 / +0.011similar: offensive EPA, offensive success rate, passing offense3934SMU2020OA +0.035 / -0.008similar: offensive success rate, run defense, offensive EPA3655App State2022OA +0.021 / +0.003similar: offensive success rate, pass defense, TD drive rate363

2024 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs North Alabama40-0W-37.5W62.5U
2vs Troy38-17W-17.0W54.75O
3@ Florida State20-12W+6.5W53.5U
4@ Navy44-56L-9.5L49O
5vs Middle Tennessee24-7W-25.5L61.5U
7@ South Florida21-3W-7.5W60.5U
8vs North Texas52-44W-10.5L66.75O
9vs Charlotte33-28W-18.5L57O
10@ UTSA36-44L-7.5L60.5O
11vs Rice27-20W----
12vs UAB53-18W-14.0W62.5O
14@ Tulane34-24W----
17@ West Virginia42-37W----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
6-7
46.2%
O/U Record
8-5
61.5%
Straight Up
11-2
84.6%
Home ATS3-4
Away ATS3-3
Favorite ATS4-7
Underdog ATS2-0
Last 5 ATS
LLWWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off96thRush Off80thRed Zone Off73th3rd Down Off98thPass Def37thRush Def47thRed Zone Def8th3rd Down Def22th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.12792th+0.01240th
Red Zone+0.12473th+0.2438th
Third Down+0.41498th+0.21822th
No Garbage Time+0.12287th+0.00744th
First Half+0.12990th-0.05662th
Second Half+0.12490th+0.07122th
Early Downs+0.05682th-0.03454th
Passing Downs+0.22896th+0.04237th
Standard Downs+0.07880th-0.00647th
Goal to Go-0.02742th+0.4121th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 51.7%Rush 48.3%
Havoc/Game
13.8
Havoc Rate
21.2%
TO Margin
+1.4
Explosive/G
17.2
Yards/Game
444.5
Pts/Drive
2.91
3rd Down%
46.1%
3&Out%
17.9%

Team Statistics

2024 season totals across 13 games — Memphis vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatMemphisOpponents
Scoring
Points464310
Points / Game35.723.8
First Downs
Total300225
Rushing12271
Passing150132
Penalty2822
Rushing
Attempts448367
Yards2,2631,453
Yards / Carry5.14.0
Yards / Game174.1111.8
Touchdowns3321
Passing
Attempts479457
Completions310275
Completion %64.7%60.2%
Yards3,5163,348
Yards / Attempt7.37.3
Touchdowns2517
Interceptions611
Passer Rating141.09129.18
Total Offense
Plays927824
Yards5,7794,801
Yards / Play6.25.8
Yards / Game444.5369.3
Punt Returns
Returns149
Yards17354
Average12.46.0
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns135
Yards22589
Average17.317.8
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts4756
Yards2,0432,352
Average43.542.0
Interception Returns
Returns116
Yards13891
Touchdowns01
Fumbles
Fumbles726
Lost215
Penalties
Penalties6977
Yards624602
Yards / Game48.046.3
Time of Possession
Per Game33:1426:46
Third Downs
Attempts178177
Conversions8268
Conversion %46.1%38.4%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2328
Conversions1217
Conversion %52.2%60.7%
Red Zone
Trips6140
Scores (TD + FG)5435
Score %88.5%87.5%
Touchdowns4328
TD %70.5%70.0%
Field Goals
Attempts2615
Made1713
Pct65.4%86.7%
PAT Kicking
Attempts5335
Made5135
Pct96.2%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts65
Made31
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →