Fourth Down Data
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APP

App State

MountaineersBalanced
Sun Belt Conference6-6#74 (-0.39)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

45· COverall
Offense
74· BRating
73· BPer play
76· BConsistency
83· BBig plays
Defense
26· DRating
48· CPer play
65· CConsistency
Situational
40· CRed-zone O
30· DRed-zone D
73· B3rd down O
41· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.021
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.003
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.068
Defensive EPA/play
-0.019
lower = better
Off Success Rate
49.4%
Def Success Rate
44.0%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
26.6%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.2%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.087
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.042
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.83

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-1.91
expected pts/game
Kicking
-1.21
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.28
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.06
own return game
Return Defense
-0.48
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#74
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#19
market 55 higher
Recruiting Rank
#75
model 1 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where App State ranks among all FBS teams in 2022 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
56th
Opp-adjusted defense
54th
Offensive EPA/play
73th
Defensive EPA/play
48th
Offensive success rate
80th
Explosiveness
84th
Defensive havoc
69th
Points per drive
86th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1NC State2017OA +0.101 / +0.021similar: rushing offense, defensive EPA, pass defense4102Memphis2025OA +0.037 / +0.005similar: defensive success rate, passing offense, run defense3993Ohio State2020OA +0.077 / +0.018similar: havoc rate, TD drive rate, defensive success rate3804Memphis2024OA +0.049 / -0.012similar: offensive success rate, pass defense, TD drive rate3635Louisiana2021OA +0.026 / +0.005similar: offensive EPA, offensive success rate, takeaway rate359

2022 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs North Carolina61-63L+1.0L56O
2@ Texas A&M17-14W+18.5W54U
3vs Troy32-28W-13.5L52O
4vs James Madison28-32L-7.0L58.5O
5vs The Citadel49-0W----
6@ Texas State24-36L-19.0L55O
8vs Georgia State42-17W----
9vs Robert Morris42-3W-3.0L64U
10@ Coastal Carolina28-35L----
11@ Marshall21-28L-1.0L47.5O
12vs Old Dominion27-14W-16.0L50.5U
13@ Georgia Southern48-51L-4.5L63O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
2-9
18.2%
O/U Record
6-5
54.5%
Straight Up
6-6
50.0%
Home ATS1-5
Away ATS1-4
Favorite ATS1-8
Underdog ATS1-1
Last 5 ATS
LLLLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off63thRush Off83thRed Zone Off40th3rd Down Off74thPass Def53thRush Def62thRed Zone Def30th3rd Down Def41th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.07781th-0.04158th
Red Zone-0.04240th+0.07530th
Third Down+0.20074th+0.10041th
No Garbage Time+0.06874th-0.03153th
First Half+0.05166th-0.01147th
Second Half+0.10184th-0.07776th
Early Downs+0.10790th-0.04359th
Passing Downs+0.05863th-0.02153th
Standard Downs+0.08683th-0.05362th
Goal to Go-0.22023th-0.20175th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 43.1%Rush 56.9%
Havoc/Game
13.3
Havoc Rate
19.9%
TO Margin
+0.8
Explosive/G
16.7
Yards/Game
455.3
Pts/Drive
2.83
3rd Down%
38.1%
3&Out%
17.3%

Team Statistics

2022 season totals across 12 games — App State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatApp StateOpponents
Scoring
Points419321
Points / Game34.926.8
First Downs
Total275230
Rushing12589
Passing125119
Penalty2522
Rushing
Attempts474420
Yards2,4531,544
Yards / Carry5.23.7
Yards / Game204.4128.7
Touchdowns2720
Passing
Attempts359365
Completions226218
Completion %63.0%59.7%
Yards3,0112,636
Yards / Attempt8.47.2
Touchdowns2818
Interceptions67
Passer Rating155.80132.83
Total Offense
Plays833785
Yards5,4644,180
Yards / Play6.65.3
Yards / Game455.3348.3
Punt Returns
Returns167
Yards7941
Average4.95.9
Touchdowns01
Kickoff Returns
Returns2626
Yards675550
Average26.021.2
Touchdowns12
Punting
Punts4455
Yards1,6692,294
Average37.941.7
Interception Returns
Returns76
Yards32186
Touchdowns01
Fumbles
Fumbles1221
Lost513
Penalties
Penalties6766
Yards619636
Yards / Game51.653.0
Time of Possession
Per Game30:3529:25
Third Downs
Attempts155168
Conversions5970
Conversion %38.1%41.7%
Fourth Downs
Attempts3721
Conversions1811
Conversion %48.6%52.4%
Red Zone
Trips5436
Scores (TD + FG)4329
Score %79.6%80.6%
Touchdowns3524
TD %64.8%66.7%
Field Goals
Attempts1213
Made99
Pct75.0%69.2%
PAT Kicking
Attempts5038
Made5038
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts43
Made22
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →