Fourth Down Data
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UL

Louisiana

Ragin' CajunsRun-Heavy
Sun Belt Conference13-1#25 (+6.36)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

81· BOverall
Offense
66· CRating
71· BPer play
76· BConsistency
66· CBig plays
Defense
74· BRating
66· CPer play
83· BConsistency
Situational
72· BRed-zone O
19· DRed-zone D
65· C3rd down O
28· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.026
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.005
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.057
Defensive EPA/play
-0.050
lower = better
Off Success Rate
48.9%
Def Success Rate
42.1%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
25.4%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.5%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.108
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.062
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.46

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+2.14
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.55
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.02
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.06
own return game
Return Defense
+1.64
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#25
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#16
AP 9 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
#18
market 7 higher
Recruiting Rank
#72
model 47 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Louisiana ranks among all FBS teams in 2021 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
60th
Opp-adjusted defense
50th
Offensive EPA/play
71th
Defensive EPA/play
66th
Offensive success rate
74th
Explosiveness
66th
Defensive havoc
78th
Points per drive
65th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Clemson2024OA +0.048 / +0.036similar: turnover rate, offensive success rate, rushing offense3822Baylor2021OA -0.042 / +0.084similar: TD drive rate, offensive success rate, passing offense3723UCF2021OA +0.016 / +0.050similar: rushing offense, defensive EPA, havoc rate3694UAB2017OA -0.060 / -0.004similar: turnover rate, pass defense, passing offense3635App State2022OA +0.021 / +0.003similar: offensive EPA, offensive success rate, takeaway rate359

2021 Schedule & Results

14 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Texas18-38L+8.0L58U
2vs Nicholls State27-24W-25.5L64.25U
3vs Ohio49-14W----
4@ Georgia Southern28-20W-14.5L54U
5@ South Alabama20-18W-12.5L53U
7vs App State41-13W-18.0L70.5U
8@ Arkansas State28-27W----
9vs Texas State45-0W-21.5W58.5U
10vs Georgia State21-17W----
11@ Troy35-21W-7.0W47.5O
12@ Liberty42-14W+4.0W53.5O
13vs UL Monroe21-16W-21.5L54.5U
14vs App State24-16W+3.0W52.5U
16@ Marshall36-21W-4.0W55.5O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
7-7
50.0%
O/U Record
4-10
28.6%
Straight Up
13-1
92.9%
Home ATS4-3
Away ATS3-4
Favorite ATS4-6
Underdog ATS3-1
Last 5 ATS
WWLWW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off68thRush Off75thRed Zone Off73th3rd Down Off65thPass Def40thRush Def93thRed Zone Def20th3rd Down Def28th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.07078th-0.06574th
Red Zone+0.08273th+0.12220th
Third Down+0.15265th+0.17828th
No Garbage Time+0.04664th-0.04059th
First Half+0.05064th-0.05766th
Second Half+0.08986th-0.07274th
Early Downs+0.07182th-0.13694th
Passing Downs+0.05368th+0.02440th
Standard Downs+0.07775th-0.12693th
Goal to Go+0.08071th+0.20420th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 41.7%Rush 58.3%
Havoc/Game
14.1
Havoc Rate
20.6%
TO Margin
+1.1
Explosive/G
16.6
Yards/Game
412.5
Pts/Drive
2.46
3rd Down%
36.7%
3&Out%
23.1%

Team Statistics

2021 season totals across 14 games — Louisiana vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatLouisianaOpponents
Scoring
Points435259
Points / Game31.118.5
First Downs
Total300257
Rushing150109
Passing133124
Penalty1724
Rushing
Attempts565520
Yards2,7162,084
Yards / Carry4.84.0
Yards / Game194.0148.9
Touchdowns3416
Passing
Attempts404414
Completions246220
Completion %60.9%53.1%
Yards3,0592,688
Yards / Attempt7.66.5
Touchdowns2217
Interceptions410
Passer Rating140.48116.40
Total Offense
Plays969934
Yards5,7754,772
Yards / Play6.05.1
Yards / Game412.5340.9
Punt Returns
Returns2625
Yards154122
Average5.94.9
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns3342
Yards595720
Average18.017.1
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts5970
Yards2,7222,841
Average46.140.6
Interception Returns
Returns104
Yards15035
Touchdowns10
Fumbles
Fumbles1019
Lost413
Penalties
Penalties7480
Yards686674
Yards / Game49.048.1
Time of Possession
Per Game30:5328:55
Third Downs
Attempts188199
Conversions6974
Conversion %36.7%37.2%
Fourth Downs
Attempts3737
Conversions2221
Conversion %59.5%56.8%
Red Zone
Trips6134
Scores (TD + FG)4928
Score %80.3%82.4%
Touchdowns4221
TD %68.9%61.8%
Field Goals
Attempts1716
Made1111
Pct64.7%68.8%
PAT Kicking
Attempts5529
Made5226
Pct94.5%89.7%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts34
Made11
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →