Fourth Down Data
← All Teams
UCF

UCF

KnightsBalanced
Big 12 Conference9-4#51 (+3.04)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

62· COverall
Offense
49· CRating
48· CPer play
39· DConsistency
28· DBig plays
Defense
76· BRating
66· CPer play
70· BConsistency
Situational
95· ARed-zone O
66· CRed-zone D
7· F3rd down O
33· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.016
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.050
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.005
Defensive EPA/play
-0.051
lower = better
Off Success Rate
46.3%
Def Success Rate
43.9%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
22.8%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.3%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.056
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.028
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.29

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.10
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.48
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.10
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.09
own return game
Return Defense
+0.20
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#51
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#39
market 12 higher
Recruiting Rank
#72
model 21 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where UCF ranks among all FBS teams in 2021 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
56th
Opp-adjusted defense
71th
Offensive EPA/play
48th
Defensive EPA/play
67th
Offensive success rate
50th
Explosiveness
29th
Defensive havoc
81th
Points per drive
56th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Louisiana2021OA +0.026 / +0.005similar: rushing offense, defensive EPA, havoc rate3692Hawai'i2020OA -0.004 / -0.014similar: offensive EPA, pass defense, offensive success rate3423Kansas State2025OA +0.062 / +0.016similar: TD drive rate, turnover rate, defensive success rate3414Marshall2021OA +0.091 / +0.049similar: defensive EPA, passing offense, rushing offense3405UAB2017OA -0.060 / -0.004similar: pass defense, defensive success rate, offensive success rate330

2021 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Boise State36-31W----
2vs Bethune-Cookman63-14W-6.5L67O
3@ Louisville35-42L----
5@ Navy30-34L-16.5L53.25O
6vs East Carolina20-16W-10.0L67U
7@ Cincinnati21-56L-1.0W63.5U
8vs Memphis24-7W----
9@ Temple49-7W-10.5W52O
10vs Tulane14-10W-12.8L59.25U
11@ SMU28-55L+7.5L60.5O
12vs UConn49-17W-18.5L62U
13vs South Florida17-13W----
17@ Florida29-17W----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
4-8
33.3%
O/U Record
6-6
50.0%
Straight Up
9-4
69.2%
Home ATS2-4
Away ATS2-4
Favorite ATS3-6
Underdog ATS1-2
Last 5 ATS
LLWLW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off53thRush Off66thRed Zone Off96th3rd Down Off7thPass Def54thRush Def72thRed Zone Def67th3rd Down Def34th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.03658th-0.05170th
Red Zone+0.22696th-0.11767th
Third Down-0.2117th+0.14734th
No Garbage Time+0.01450th-0.05165th
First Half+0.02653th-0.00349th
Second Half+0.04670th-0.10985th
Early Downs+0.04568th-0.09581th
Passing Downs+0.01153th-0.01454th
Standard Downs+0.04966th-0.07272th
Goal to Go+0.07770th-0.05457th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 45.0%Rush 55.0%
Havoc/Game
15.6
Havoc Rate
20.9%
TO Margin
+0.4
Explosive/G
12.8
Yards/Game
402.5
Pts/Drive
2.29
3rd Down%
37.9%
3&Out%
29.0%

Team Statistics

2021 season totals across 13 games — UCF vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatUCFOpponents
Scoring
Points415319
Points / Game31.924.5
First Downs
Total262274
Rushing122111
Passing121139
Penalty1924
Rushing
Attempts476479
Yards2,5522,070
Yards / Carry5.44.3
Yards / Game196.3159.2
Touchdowns2724
Passing
Attempts390467
Completions252269
Completion %64.6%57.6%
Yards2,6802,731
Yards / Attempt6.95.8
Touchdowns2912
Interceptions911
Passer Rating142.26110.49
Total Offense
Plays866946
Yards5,2324,801
Yards / Play6.05.1
Yards / Game402.5369.3
Punt Returns
Returns2217
Yards174148
Average7.98.7
Touchdowns01
Kickoff Returns
Returns2630
Yards554615
Average21.320.5
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts7366
Yards2,9272,728
Average40.141.3
Interception Returns
Returns119
Yards114268
Touchdowns03
Fumbles
Fumbles1316
Lost69
Penalties
Penalties8080
Yards696633
Yards / Game53.548.7
Time of Possession
Per Game28:3331:24
Third Downs
Attempts174201
Conversions6676
Conversion %37.9%37.8%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1329
Conversions1114
Conversion %84.6%48.3%
Red Zone
Trips5852
Scores (TD + FG)4942
Score %84.5%80.8%
Touchdowns4229
TD %72.4%55.8%
Field Goals
Attempts1418
Made813
Pct57.1%72.2%
PAT Kicking
Attempts5440
Made5340
Pct98.1%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts20
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →