Fourth Down Data
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MRSH

Marshall

Thundering HerdBalanced
Sun Belt Conference7-6#21 (+7.19)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

84· BOverall
Offense
83· BRating
71· BPer play
89· BConsistency
36· DBig plays
Defense
82· BRating
67· CPer play
67· CConsistency
Situational
60· CRed-zone O
71· BRed-zone D
20· D3rd down O
40· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.091
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.049
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.058
Defensive EPA/play
-0.052
lower = better
Off Success Rate
49.9%
Def Success Rate
44.7%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.2%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.7%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.110
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.012
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.60

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.82
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.17
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.67
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.02
own return game
Return Defense
+0.30
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#21
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
model 5 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
#27
model 6 higher
Recruiting Rank
#72
model 51 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Marshall ranks among all FBS teams in 2021 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
83th
Opp-adjusted defense
70th
Offensive EPA/play
72th
Defensive EPA/play
68th
Offensive success rate
85th
Explosiveness
37th
Defensive havoc
54th
Points per drive
79th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Oregon2017OA +0.036 / +0.077similar: passing offense, turnover rate, TD drive rate3452UCF2021OA +0.016 / +0.050similar: defensive EPA, passing offense, rushing offense3403Liberty2024OA +0.014 / -0.013similar: defensive success rate, turnover rate, offensive success rate3314Oregon State2022OA +0.047 / +0.105similar: defensive success rate, passing offense, TD drive rate3305Purdue2022OA +0.107 / -0.006similar: turnover rate, takeaway rate, run defense328

2021 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Navy49-7W-2.5W47.5O
2vs North Carolina Central44-10W----
3vs East Carolina38-42L-10.0L58O
4@ App State30-31L----
5@ Middle Tennessee28-34L-10.0L65.75U
6vs Old Dominion20-13W-21.0L65.5U
7@ North Texas49-21W----
9vs Florida International38-0W-21.5W64.5U
10@ Florida Atlantic28-13W-1.5W58U
11vs UAB14-21L-5.0L54.5U
12@ Charlotte49-28W-14.5W62O
13vs Western Kentucky21-53L-1.0L74P
16vs Louisiana21-36L+4.0L55.5O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
6-6
50.0%
O/U Record
5-5-1
50.0%
Straight Up
7-6
53.8%
Home ATS1-5
Away ATS5-1
Favorite ATS5-5
Underdog ATS1-1
Last 5 ATS
WLWLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off25thRush Off77thRed Zone Off61th3rd Down Off20thPass Def81thRush Def46thRed Zone Def72th3rd Down Def41th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.02653th-0.05069th
Red Zone+0.03061th-0.14472th
Third Down-0.08820th+0.11441th
No Garbage Time+0.05067th-0.04360th
First Half+0.10280th-0.04665th
Second Half-0.05531th-0.05463th
Early Downs+0.07985th-0.05967th
Passing Downs-0.09325th-0.14281th
Standard Downs+0.07977th+0.00246th
Goal to Go+0.18484th+0.03043th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 52.2%Rush 47.8%
Havoc/Game
14.8
Havoc Rate
18.8%
TO Margin
-0.5
Explosive/G
14.9
Yards/Game
456.5
Pts/Drive
2.60
3rd Down%
41.8%
3&Out%
22.2%

Team Statistics

2021 season totals across 13 games — Marshall vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatMarshallOpponents
Scoring
Points429309
Points / Game33.023.8
First Downs
Total304277
Rushing130139
Passing158114
Penalty1624
Rushing
Attempts449584
Yards2,1052,496
Yards / Carry4.74.3
Yards / Game161.9192.0
Touchdowns3818
Passing
Attempts490419
Completions324229
Completion %66.1%54.7%
Yards3,8302,660
Yards / Attempt7.86.3
Touchdowns1818
Interceptions1510
Passer Rating137.78117.38
Total Offense
Plays9391,003
Yards5,9355,156
Yards / Play6.35.1
Yards / Game456.5396.6
Punt Returns
Returns2419
Yards8045
Average3.32.4
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns3437
Yards731675
Average21.518.2
Touchdowns21
Punting
Punts6273
Yards2,4772,987
Average40.040.9
Interception Returns
Returns1015
Yards163309
Touchdowns01
Fumbles
Fumbles2015
Lost108
Penalties
Penalties8484
Yards740749
Yards / Game56.957.6
Time of Possession
Per Game27:2532:33
Third Downs
Attempts170215
Conversions7180
Conversion %41.8%37.2%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1633
Conversions1016
Conversion %62.5%48.5%
Red Zone
Trips5543
Scores (TD + FG)4532
Score %81.8%74.4%
Touchdowns3825
TD %69.1%58.1%
Field Goals
Attempts1319
Made813
Pct61.5%68.4%
PAT Kicking
Attempts5737
Made5736
Pct100.0%97.3%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts12
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →