Fourth Down Data
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Oregon State

BeaversRun-Heavy
Pac-12 Conference10-3#13 (+7.89)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

90· A-Overall
Offense
71· BRating
60· CPer play
89· BConsistency
65· CBig plays
Defense
88· BRating
70· BPer play
66· CConsistency
Situational
62· CRed-zone O
87· BRed-zone D
48· C3rd down O
57· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.047
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.105
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.026
Defensive EPA/play
-0.082
lower = better
Off Success Rate
51.3%
Def Success Rate
44.4%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
25.0%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
21.6%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.107
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.060
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.69

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.81
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.40
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+1.31
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.99
own return game
Return Defense
-1.10
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#13
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#17
model 4 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
#51
model 38 higher
Recruiting Rank
#75
model 62 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Oregon State ranks among all FBS teams in 2022 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
67th
Opp-adjusted defense
86th
Offensive EPA/play
61th
Defensive EPA/play
71th
Offensive success rate
90th
Explosiveness
65th
Defensive havoc
70th
Points per drive
81th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Oregon2017OA +0.036 / +0.077similar: offensive EPA, passing offense, TD drive rate4032Ohio2017OA +0.025 / -0.003similar: offensive success rate, turnover rate, takeaway rate3903UCF2026OA -0.004 / +0.046similar: offensive EPA, rushing offense, passing offense3694Liberty2021OA +0.054 / +0.011similar: run defense, rushing offense, defensive EPA3655Iowa State2020OA +0.039 / +0.038similar: TD drive rate, offensive success rate, rushing offense350

2022 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Boise State34-17W-2.5W57U
2@ Fresno State35-32W0.0W60O
3vs Montana State68-28W----
4vs USC14-17L+6.0W70.5U
5@ Utah16-42L+10.0L54.5O
6@ Stanford28-27W-4.5L53.5O
7vs Washington State24-10W-3.5W52.5U
8vs Colorado42-9W-23.5W48.5O
10@ Washington21-24L----
11vs California38-10W-14.0W49U
12@ Arizona State31-7W-7.5W54U
13vs Oregon38-34W+3.0W58O
16vs Florida30-3W-10.0W52.5U

Betting Profile

ATS Record
10-2
83.3%
O/U Record
5-7
41.7%
Straight Up
10-3
76.9%
Home ATS7-0
Away ATS3-2
Favorite ATS6-1
Underdog ATS4-1
Last 5 ATS
WWWWW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off73thRush Off57thRed Zone Off62th3rd Down Off49thPass Def49thRush Def86thRed Zone Def88th3rd Down Def58th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.03664th-0.07773th
Red Zone+0.07362th-0.24588th
Third Down+0.07049th+0.02758th
No Garbage Time+0.03366th-0.08272th
First Half-0.00251th-0.16690th
Second Half+0.07777th+0.01136th
Early Downs-0.00453th-0.12488th
Passing Downs+0.10673th-0.01249th
Standard Downs+0.00557th-0.11686th
Goal to Go-0.01850th-0.36788th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 38.1%Rush 61.9%
Havoc/Game
13.1
Havoc Rate
20.0%
TO Margin
-0.1
Explosive/G
14.5
Yards/Game
396.0
Pts/Drive
2.69
3rd Down%
43.8%
3&Out%
16.8%

Team Statistics

2022 season totals across 13 games — Oregon State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatOregon StateOpponents
Scoring
Points419260
Points / Game32.220.0
First Downs
Total291235
Rushing14794
Passing122122
Penalty2219
Rushing
Attempts524375
Yards2,5541,407
Yards / Carry4.93.8
Yards / Game196.5108.2
Touchdowns3617
Passing
Attempts322459
Completions201266
Completion %62.4%58.0%
Yards2,5942,919
Yards / Attempt8.16.4
Touchdowns1611
Interceptions1312
Passer Rating138.41114.05
Total Offense
Plays846834
Yards5,1484,326
Yards / Play6.15.2
Yards / Game396.0332.8
Punt Returns
Returns2010
Yards319104
Average15.910.4
Touchdowns20
Kickoff Returns
Returns3134
Yards667805
Average21.523.7
Touchdowns01
Punting
Punts3856
Yards1,7482,203
Average46.039.3
Interception Returns
Returns1213
Yards105252
Touchdowns21
Fumbles
Fumbles1214
Lost55
Penalties
Penalties7880
Yards701735
Yards / Game53.956.5
Time of Possession
Per Game31:5828:01
Third Downs
Attempts153178
Conversions6769
Conversion %43.8%38.8%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2326
Conversions168
Conversion %69.6%30.8%
Red Zone
Trips6042
Scores (TD + FG)4928
Score %81.7%66.7%
Touchdowns4020
TD %66.7%47.6%
Field Goals
Attempts2023
Made1115
Pct55.0%65.2%
PAT Kicking
Attempts5130
Made4829
Pct94.1%96.7%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts41
Made10
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →