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ORE
Oregon
DucksRun-HeavyBig Ten Conference7-6#51 (+4.81)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
62· COverall
Offense
62· CRating
60· CPer play
80· BConsistency
80· BBig plays
Defense
62· CRating
60· CPer play
58· CConsistency
Situational
92· A-Red-zone O
72· BRed-zone D
63· C3rd down O
54· C3rd down D
How grades work →2017 is the earliest season the model grades — first-year numbers run a touch noisier than later seasons.
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
+0.036
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.077
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.011
Defensive EPA/play
-0.060
lower = better
Off Success Rate
48.6%
Def Success Rate
44.8%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
25.5%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
22.4%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.072
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.030
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.43
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-0.21
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.56
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.33
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.02
own return game
Return Defense
+0.00
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#51
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#21
recruiting 30 spots higher
25 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Oregon ranks among all FBS teams in 2017 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense66th
Opp-adjusted defense76th
Offensive EPA/play61th
Defensive EPA/play61th
Offensive success rate77th
Explosiveness81th
Defensive havoc87th
Points per drive74th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Toledo2023OA +0.030 / +0.045similar: rushing offense, TD drive rate, havoc rate4122Oregon State2022OA +0.047 / +0.105similar: offensive EPA, passing offense, TD drive rate4033UCLA2020OA +0.029 / +0.008similar: turnover rate, defensive EPA, offensive success rate3784Louisiana2026OA +0.023 / -0.011similar: rushing offense, pass defense, TD drive rate3775UTSA2023OA -0.019 / -0.006similar: TD drive rate, run defense, defensive EPA362
2017 Schedule & Results
13 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Southern Utah | 77-21 | W | -7.0 | L | 62.5 | O |
| 2 | vs Nebraska | 42-35 | W | -10.5 | L | 67 | O |
| 3 | @ Wyoming | 49-13 | W | -14.0 | W | 66 | U |
| 4 | @ Arizona State | 35-37 | L | -14.5 | L | 75 | U |
| 5 | vs California | 45-24 | W | -17.0 | W | 66 | O |
| 6 | vs Washington State | 10-33 | L | +1.5 | L | 60.5 | U |
| 7 | @ Stanford | 7-49 | L | +9.5 | L | 57.5 | U |
| 8 | @ UCLA | 14-31 | L | +6.0 | L | 68 | U |
| 9 | vs Utah | 41-20 | W | +3.0 | W | 49.5 | O |
| 10 | @ Washington | 3-38 | L | +17.5 | L | 53 | U |
| 12 | vs Arizona | 48-28 | W | -3.0 | W | 77 | U |
| 13 | vs Oregon State | 69-10 | W | -25.5 | W | 62 | O |
| 16 | vs Boise State | 28-38 | L | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
5-7
41.7%
O/U Record
5-7
41.7%
Straight Up
6-6
50.0%
Home ATS4-3
Away ATS1-4
Favorite ATS4-3
Underdog ATS1-4
Last 5 ATS
LWLWW
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | +0.006 | 58th | -0.057 | 59th |
| Red Zone | +0.238 | 92th | -0.124 | 73th |
| Third Down | +0.066 | 63th | -0.040 | 55th |
| No Garbage Time | +0.014 | 60th | -0.069 | 64th |
| First Half | +0.021 | 66th | -0.124 | 74th |
| Second Half | -0.011 | 53th | +0.004 | 41th |
| Early Downs | +0.052 | 80th | -0.083 | 69th |
| Passing Downs | -0.113 | 23th | -0.095 | 68th |
| Standard Downs | +0.061 | 78th | -0.036 | 53th |
| Goal to Go | +0.221 | 81th | -0.434 | 95th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 33.1%Rush 66.9%
Havoc/Game
16.8
Havoc Rate
22.5%
TO Margin
0.0
Explosive/G
15.4
Yards/Game
440.9
Pts/Drive
2.43
3rd Down%
41.0%
3&Out%
19.5%
Team Statistics
2017 season totals across 13 games — Oregon vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Oregon | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 468 | 377 |
| Points / Game | 36.0 | 29.0 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 285 | 270 |
| Rushing | 162 | 93 |
| Passing | 96 | 132 |
| Penalty | 27 | 45 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 628 | 481 |
| Yards | 3,263 | 1,671 |
| Yards / Carry | 5.2 | 3.5 |
| Yards / Game | 251.0 | 128.5 |
| Touchdowns | 40 | 19 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 311 | 465 |
| Completions | 203 | 256 |
| Completion % | 65.3% | 55.1% |
| Yards | 2,469 | 3,128 |
| Yards / Attempt | 7.9 | 6.7 |
| Touchdowns | 18 | 25 |
| Interceptions | 12 | 15 |
| Passer Rating | 143.34 | 122.85 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 939 | 946 |
| Yards | 5,732 | 4,799 |
| Yards / Play | 6.1 | 5.1 |
| Yards / Game | 440.9 | 369.2 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 18 | 20 |
| Yards | 116 | 131 |
| Average | 6.4 | 6.5 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 2 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 40 | 42 |
| Yards | 909 | 930 |
| Average | 22.7 | 22.1 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 65 | 73 |
| Yards | 2,444 | 2,742 |
| Average | 37.6 | 37.6 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 15 | 12 |
| Yards | 242 | 232 |
| Touchdowns | 2 | 1 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 23 | 19 |
| Lost | 13 | 10 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 122 | 68 |
| Yards | 1,148 | 701 |
| Yards / Game | 88.3 | 53.9 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 28:15 | 31:45 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 178 | 198 |
| Conversions | 73 | 66 |
| Conversion % | 41.0% | 33.3% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 17 | 24 |
| Conversions | 7 | 10 |
| Conversion % | 41.2% | 41.7% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 56 | 46 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 50 | 38 |
| Score % | 89.3% | 82.6% |
| Touchdowns | 44 | 27 |
| TD % | 78.6% | 58.7% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 12 | 21 |
| Made | 9 | 16 |
| Pct | 75.0% | 76.2% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 63 | 47 |
| Made | 63 | 47 |
| Pct | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 0 | 0 |
| Made | 0 | 0 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.