Fourth Down Data
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TULN

Tulane

Green WaveRun-Heavy
American Conference7-6#41 (+6.06)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

69· COverall
Offense
69· CRating
75· BPer play
68· CConsistency
73· BBig plays
Defense
57· CRating
50· CPer play
63· CConsistency
Situational
94· ARed-zone O
74· BRed-zone D
79· B3rd down O
33· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.046
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.029
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.082
Defensive EPA/play
-0.000
lower = better
Off Success Rate
48.3%
Def Success Rate
44.3%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
25.1%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.0%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.082
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.086
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.46

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.45
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.10
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.16
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.16
own return game
Return Defense
+0.04
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#41
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#75
model 34 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Tulane ranks among all FBS teams in 2019 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
70th
Opp-adjusted defense
61th
Offensive EPA/play
75th
Defensive EPA/play
51th
Offensive success rate
72th
Explosiveness
74th
Defensive havoc
43th
Points per drive
68th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Baylor2024OA +0.032 / -0.011similar: offensive success rate, run defense, havoc rate4092Ohio2025OA +0.039 / -0.025similar: havoc rate, offensive EPA, rushing offense3773UCF2022OA +0.098 / -0.025similar: offensive EPA, run defense, havoc rate3704Oregon2017OA +0.036 / +0.077similar: rushing offense, pass defense, offensive success rate3605TCU2022OA +0.134 / +0.023similar: offensive success rate, rushing offense, takeaway rate358

2019 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Florida International42-14W-7.5W58U
2@ Auburn6-24L+15.0L51.5U
3vs Missouri State58-6W-31.5W55O
4vs Houston38-31W-4.0W57O
6@ Army42-33W-2.5W42.5O
7vs UConn49-7W-33.5W57U
8@ Memphis17-47L+2.5L61O
9@ Navy38-41L+4.5W59O
10vs Tulsa38-26W-10.5W59.5O
12@ Temple21-29L-7.0L53U
13vs UCF31-34L+7.0W73.5U
14@ SMU20-37L+3.5L72U
19vs Southern Miss30-13W----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
8-4
66.7%
O/U Record
6-6
50.0%
Straight Up
6-6
50.0%
Home ATS6-0
Away ATS2-4
Favorite ATS6-1
Underdog ATS2-3
Last 5 ATS
WWLWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off37thRush Off93thRed Zone Off95th3rd Down Off80thPass Def72thRush Def30thRed Zone Def75th3rd Down Def33th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.08178th-0.00049th
Red Zone+0.28895th-0.13475th
Third Down+0.18980th+0.11233th
No Garbage Time+0.08075th-0.00454th
First Half+0.02155th+0.02042th
Second Half+0.14393th-0.02360th
Early Downs+0.13594th+0.01646th
Passing Downs-0.03137th-0.07272th
Standard Downs+0.13893th+0.04530th
Goal to Go+0.58798th-0.10762th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 35.4%Rush 64.6%
Havoc/Game
12.7
Havoc Rate
17.9%
TO Margin
-0.2
Explosive/G
16.0
Yards/Game
449.3
Pts/Drive
2.46
3rd Down%
38.9%
3&Out%
17.0%

Team Statistics

2019 season totals across 13 games — Tulane vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatTulaneOpponents
Scoring
Points430342
Points / Game33.126.3
First Downs
Total299250
Rushing166109
Passing117120
Penalty1621
Rushing
Attempts612470
Yards3,1622,032
Yards / Carry5.24.3
Yards / Game243.2156.3
Touchdowns3318
Passing
Attempts336422
Completions197228
Completion %58.6%54.0%
Yards2,6792,869
Yards / Attempt8.06.8
Touchdowns1923
Interceptions1012
Passer Rating138.31123.44
Total Offense
Plays948892
Yards5,8414,901
Yards / Play6.25.5
Yards / Game449.3377.0
Punt Returns
Returns1711
Yards168134
Average9.912.2
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns4225
Yards980508
Average23.320.3
Touchdowns10
Punting
Punts5268
Yards2,1552,785
Average41.441.0
Interception Returns
Returns1210
Yards12947
Touchdowns21
Fumbles
Fumbles1417
Lost84
Penalties
Penalties10369
Yards883591
Yards / Game67.945.5
Time of Possession
Per Game30:3629:22
Third Downs
Attempts180195
Conversions7076
Conversion %38.9%39.0%
Fourth Downs
Attempts3426
Conversions2014
Conversion %58.8%53.8%
Red Zone
Trips4949
Scores (TD + FG)4440
Score %89.8%81.6%
Touchdowns3525
TD %71.4%51.0%
Field Goals
Attempts1718
Made1316
Pct76.5%88.9%
PAT Kicking
Attempts5639
Made5536
Pct98.2%92.3%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts04
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →