UCF Knights Football Analytics

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UCF

KnightsBalanced

Big 12 Conference9-5#23 (+5.56)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

83· BOverall

Offense

81· BRating

78· BPer play

87· BConsistency

73· BBig plays

Defense

65· CRating

34· DPer play

48· CConsistency

Situational

32· DRed-zone O

95· ARed-zone D

63· C3rd down O

43· C3rd down D

How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense

+0.098

Opp-Adj Defense

-0.025

higher = better

Offensive EPA/play

+0.088

Defensive EPA/play

+0.024

lower = better

Off Success Rate

51.2%

Def Success Rate

45.1%

allowed · lower = better

Explosive Rate

25.5%

pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8

Explosive Allowed

26.5%

lower = better

Net EPA/play

+0.064

net · higher = better

Recent EPA Trend

-0.051

last 3 weeks

Points / Drive

2.59

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating

+0.97

expected pts/game

Kicking

-0.05

own kicking game

Kick Defense

-0.16

vs opponent kicks

Returns

+1.00

own return game

Return Defense

+0.18

vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank

#23

opponent-adjusted strength

AP Poll

NR

model 3 spots higher

Market (Vegas)

#16

market 7 higher

Recruiting Rank

#64

model 41 spots higher

1 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where UCF ranks among all FBS teams in 2022 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense

81th

Opp-adjusted defense

40th

Offensive EPA/play

79th

Defensive EPA/play

35th

Offensive success rate

90th

Explosiveness

74th

Defensive havoc

38th

Points per drive

75th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Florida State2025OA +0.075 / -0.008similar: takeaway rate, TD drive rate, turnover rate384 2Ohio2025OA +0.039 / -0.025similar: offensive EPA, rushing offense, TD drive rate371 3Tulane2019OA +0.046 / +0.029similar: offensive EPA, run defense, havoc rate370 4Baylor2022OA +0.078 / -0.009similar: TD drive rate, havoc rate, passing offense364 5Louisville2020OA +0.021 / -0.013similar: defensive success rate, offensive EPA, run defense362

2022 Schedule & Results

14 games

Wk	Opponent	Score	W/L	Spread	ATS	Total	O/U
1	vs South Carolina State	56-10	W	-6.0	L	61.5	U
2	vs Louisville	14-20	L	-	-	-	-
3	@ Florida Atlantic	40-14	W	-8.0	W	61.5	U
4	vs Georgia Tech	27-10	W	-20.5	L	56.5	U
6	vs SMU	41-19	W	-23.5	W	46	O
7	vs Temple	70-13	W	-	-	-	-
8	@ East Carolina	13-34	L	-5.0	L	64.5	U
9	vs Cincinnati	25-21	W	-1.5	W	56	U
10	@ Memphis	35-28	W	-3.5	W	58.5	O
11	@ Tulane	38-31	W	+2.0	W	54.5	O
12	vs Navy	14-17	L	-16.5	L	53	U
13	@ South Florida	46-39	W	-20.0	L	68.75	O
14	@ Tulane	28-45	L	+4.0	L	57	O
18	@ Duke	13-30	L	-	-	-	-

Betting Profile

ATS Record

7-7

50.0%

O/U Record

6-8

42.9%

Straight Up

9-5

64.3%

Home ATS4-3

Away ATS3-4

Favorite ATS6-5

Underdog ATS1-2

Last 5 ATS

WLLLL

Full ATS log & splits →

Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Situation	OFF EPA	OFF Rank	DEF EPA	DEF Rank
Overall	+0.096	85th	+0.003	41th
Red Zone	-0.078	32th	-0.335	96th
Third Down	+0.138	64th	+0.079	43th
No Garbage Time	+0.084	79th	+0.024	34th
First Half	+0.116	84th	+0.059	21th
Second Half	+0.077	78th	-0.060	67th
Early Downs	+0.056	79th	+0.030	24th
Passing Downs	+0.075	66th	-0.055	67th
Standard Downs	+0.106	90th	+0.036	22th
Goal to Go	-0.013	52th	-0.393	90th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 42.3%Rush 57.7%

Havoc/Game

12.1

Havoc Rate

17.3%

TO Margin

-0.3

Explosive/G

18.3

Yards/Game

469.6

Pts/Drive

2.59

3rd Down%

45.5%

3&Out%

14.9%

Team Statistics

2022 season totals across 14 games — UCF vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.

Stat	UCF	Opponents
Scoring
Points	460	331
Points / Game	32.9	23.6
First Downs
Total	340	281
Rushing	165	104
Passing	155	146
Penalty	20	31
Rushing
Attempts	615	488
Yards	3,197	2,212
Yards / Carry	5.2	4.5
Yards / Game	228.4	158.0
Touchdowns	35	24
Passing
Attempts	451	454
Completions	291	268
Completion %	64.5%	59.0%
Yards	3,377	3,112
Yards / Attempt	7.5	6.9
Touchdowns	22	15
Interceptions	9	6
Passer Rating	139.53	124.87
Total Offense
Plays	1,066	942
Yards	6,574	5,324
Yards / Play	6.2	5.7
Yards / Game	469.6	380.3
Punt Returns
Returns	27	18
Yards	268	145
Average	9.9	8.1
Touchdowns	2	0
Kickoff Returns
Returns	34	25
Yards	639	452
Average	18.8	18.1
Touchdowns	0	0
Punting
Punts	53	60
Yards	2,214	2,610
Average	41.8	43.5
Interception Returns
Returns	6	9
Yards	34	97
Touchdowns	0	0
Fumbles
Fumbles	17	17
Lost	12	11
Penalties
Penalties	68	71
Yards	649	566
Yards / Game	46.4	40.4
Time of Possession
Per Game	30:42	29:15
Third Downs
Attempts	209	194
Conversions	95	74
Conversion %	45.5%	38.1%
Fourth Downs
Attempts	30	29
Conversions	19	13
Conversion %	63.3%	44.8%
Red Zone
Trips	66	58
Scores (TD + FG)	52	41
Score %	78.8%	70.7%
Touchdowns	41	27
TD %	62.1%	46.6%
Field Goals
Attempts	17	26
Made	14	19
Pct	82.4%	73.1%
PAT Kicking
Attempts	53	34
Made	52	34
Pct	98.1%	100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts	6	4
Made	4	3

Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.

Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →