Fourth Down Data
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OHIO

Ohio

BobcatsRun-Heavy
Mid-American Conference9-4#77 (-2.59)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

43· COverall
Offense
47· CRating
77· BPer play
92· A-Consistency
89· BBig plays
Defense
45· CRating
57· CPer play
66· CConsistency
Situational
92· A-Red-zone O
84· BRed-zone D
69· C3rd down O
84· B3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.039
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.025
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.088
Defensive EPA/play
-0.037
lower = better
Off Success Rate
51.5%
Def Success Rate
44.2%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
26.0%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.1%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.124
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.008
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.44

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.13
expected pts/game
Kicking
-1.11
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.97
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.06
own return game
Return Defense
-0.06
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#77
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#42
market 35 higher
Recruiting Rank
#79
model 2 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Ohio ranks among all FBS teams in 2025 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
67th
Opp-adjusted defense
39th
Offensive EPA/play
78th
Defensive EPA/play
58th
Offensive success rate
94th
Explosiveness
90th
Defensive havoc
44th
Points per drive
65th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Wisconsin2018OA +0.015 / +0.070similar: turnover rate, TD drive rate, offensive success rate3862Tulane2019OA +0.046 / +0.029similar: havoc rate, offensive EPA, rushing offense3773Kentucky2021OA +0.063 / +0.042similar: offensive success rate, offensive EPA, TD drive rate3754UCF2022OA +0.098 / -0.025similar: offensive EPA, rushing offense, TD drive rate3715Kansas2024OA +0.048 / -0.020similar: offensive success rate, TD drive rate, offensive EPA361

2025 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Rutgers31-34L----
2vs West Virginia17-10W-6.5W51.5U
3@ Ohio State9-37L+28.5W49.5U
4vs Gardner-Webb52-35W-18.5L67.5O
5vs Bowling Green35-20W-7.5W50.5O
6@ Ball State14-20L-14.5L51U
8vs Northern Illinois48-21W-26.5W62.5O
9@ Eastern Michigan28-21W-11.5L58.5U
11vs Miami (OH)24-20W+1.5L47U
12@ Western Michigan13-17L-34.0L53.5O
13vs Massachusetts42-14W-7.0L44.5O
14@ Buffalo31-26W----
18vs UNLV17-10W----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
7-6
53.8%
O/U Record
6-7
46.2%
Straight Up
9-4
69.2%
Home ATS5-2
Away ATS2-4
Favorite ATS4-5
Underdog ATS3-1
Last 5 ATS
WLLLW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off65thRush Off84thRed Zone Off93th3rd Down Off70thPass Def76thRush Def38thRed Zone Def85th3rd Down Def85th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.08479th-0.01952th
Red Zone+0.22993th-0.19385th
Third Down+0.18270th-0.12185th
No Garbage Time+0.09381th-0.02052th
First Half+0.10679th-0.06769th
Second Half+0.06175th+0.03136th
Early Downs+0.08989th-0.02149th
Passing Downs+0.05365th-0.10476th
Standard Downs+0.09884th+0.02538th
Goal to Go+0.41393th-0.33785th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 35.9%Rush 64.1%
Havoc/Game
11.0
Havoc Rate
17.6%
TO Margin
-0.2
Explosive/G
17.0
Yards/Game
411.5
Pts/Drive
2.44
3rd Down%
42.7%
3&Out%
12.9%

Team Statistics

2025 season totals across 13 games — Ohio vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatOhioOpponents
Scoring
Points361285
Points / Game27.821.9
First Downs
Total281240
Rushing144109
Passing117115
Penalty2016
Rushing
Attempts558429
Yards2,9561,872
Yards / Carry5.34.4
Yards / Game227.4144.0
Touchdowns3215
Passing
Attempts312360
Completions192231
Completion %61.5%64.2%
Yards2,3942,705
Yards / Attempt7.77.5
Touchdowns1419
Interceptions1112
Passer Rating133.75138.03
Total Offense
Plays870789
Yards5,3504,577
Yards / Play6.15.8
Yards / Game411.5352.1
Punt Returns
Returns1213
Yards160117
Average13.39.0
Touchdowns01
Kickoff Returns
Returns1730
Yards398671
Average23.422.4
Touchdowns10
Punting
Punts4355
Yards1,7482,285
Average40.741.5
Interception Returns
Returns1211
Yards17680
Touchdowns10
Fumbles
Fumbles1610
Lost95
Penalties
Penalties8058
Yards628504
Yards / Game48.338.8
Time of Possession
Per Game32:0727:41
Third Downs
Attempts164162
Conversions7054
Conversion %42.7%33.3%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2929
Conversions1717
Conversion %58.6%58.6%
Red Zone
Trips4739
Scores (TD + FG)4030
Score %85.1%76.9%
Touchdowns3520
TD %74.5%51.3%
Field Goals
Attempts1219
Made713
Pct58.3%68.4%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4730
Made4230
Pct89.4%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts25
Made22
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →