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WIS
Wisconsin
BadgersRun-HeavyBig Ten Conference8-5#47 (+2.97)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
64· COverall
Offense
68· CRating
45· CPer play
91· A-Consistency
53· CBig plays
Defense
73· BRating
72· BPer play
54· CConsistency
Situational
89· BRed-zone O
74· BRed-zone D
21· D3rd down O
88· B3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
+0.015
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.070
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.010
Defensive EPA/play
-0.075
lower = better
Off Success Rate
52.1%
Def Success Rate
46.0%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.7%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
22.5%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.064
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.028
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.38
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-1.25
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.90
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.21
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.05
own return game
Return Defense
-0.08
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#47
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#35
recruiting 12 spots higher
9 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Wisconsin ranks among all FBS teams in 2018 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense53th
Opp-adjusted defense75th
Offensive EPA/play45th
Defensive EPA/play73th
Offensive success rate95th
Explosiveness54th
Defensive havoc48th
Points per drive68th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Ohio2025OA +0.039 / -0.025similar: turnover rate, TD drive rate, offensive success rate3862Arizona State2021OA +0.046 / +0.047similar: pass defense, defensive EPA, takeaway rate3523Oregon2017OA +0.036 / +0.077similar: rushing offense, defensive success rate, TD drive rate3194Minnesota2022OA +0.031 / +0.111similar: offensive success rate, rushing offense, offensive EPA3105Michigan2025OA +0.091 / +0.024similar: rushing offense, TD drive rate, offensive success rate310
2018 Schedule & Results
13 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Western Kentucky | 34-3 | W | +2.5 | W | 43.5 | U |
| 2 | vs New Mexico | 45-14 | W | -35.5 | L | 58 | O |
| 3 | vs BYU | 21-24 | L | -23.5 | L | 51 | U |
| 4 | @ Iowa | 28-17 | W | -3.0 | W | 43.5 | O |
| 6 | vs Nebraska | 41-24 | W | -18.0 | L | 60.5 | O |
| 7 | @ Michigan | 13-38 | L | +10.0 | L | 47.5 | O |
| 8 | vs Illinois | 49-20 | W | -24.0 | W | 53.5 | O |
| 9 | @ Northwestern | 17-31 | L | -4.5 | L | 50 | U |
| 10 | vs Rutgers | 31-17 | W | -29.0 | L | 50.5 | U |
| 11 | @ Penn State | 10-22 | L | +7.5 | L | 52 | U |
| 12 | @ Purdue | 47-44 | W | +3.5 | W | 56 | O |
| 13 | vs Minnesota | 15-37 | L | -10.5 | L | 53 | U |
| 18 | vs Miami | 35-3 | W | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
4-8
33.3%
O/U Record
6-6
50.0%
Straight Up
7-5
58.3%
Home ATS2-5
Away ATS2-3
Favorite ATS2-6
Underdog ATS2-2
Last 5 ATS
LLLWL
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | +0.019 | 56th | -0.046 | 65th |
| Red Zone | +0.200 | 90th | -0.131 | 75th |
| Third Down | -0.088 | 21th | -0.177 | 89th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.007 | 45th | -0.080 | 76th |
| First Half | -0.046 | 33th | -0.114 | 80th |
| Second Half | +0.088 | 80th | +0.019 | 43th |
| Early Downs | +0.063 | 77th | -0.000 | 42th |
| Passing Downs | +0.046 | 66th | -0.105 | 73th |
| Standard Downs | +0.008 | 52th | -0.016 | 50th |
| Goal to Go | +0.380 | 91th | -0.183 | 80th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 34.7%Rush 65.3%
Havoc/Game
11.8
Havoc Rate
18.3%
TO Margin
+0.1
Explosive/G
14.5
Yards/Game
431.1
Pts/Drive
2.38
3rd Down%
41.3%
3&Out%
14.9%
Team Statistics
2018 season totals across 13 games — Wisconsin vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Wisconsin | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 386 | 294 |
| Points / Game | 29.7 | 22.6 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 280 | 230 |
| Rushing | 172 | 98 |
| Passing | 100 | 108 |
| Penalty | 8 | 24 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 571 | 454 |
| Yards | 3,554 | 2,016 |
| Yards / Carry | 6.2 | 4.4 |
| Yards / Game | 273.4 | 155.1 |
| Touchdowns | 32 | 17 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 304 | 360 |
| Completions | 179 | 209 |
| Completion % | 58.9% | 58.1% |
| Yards | 2,050 | 2,458 |
| Yards / Attempt | 6.7 | 6.8 |
| Touchdowns | 19 | 14 |
| Interceptions | 14 | 14 |
| Passer Rating | 126.94 | 120.46 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 875 | 814 |
| Yards | 5,604 | 4,474 |
| Yards / Play | 6.4 | 5.5 |
| Yards / Game | 431.1 | 344.2 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 19 | 17 |
| Yards | 91 | 191 |
| Average | 4.8 | 11.2 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 1 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 30 | 13 |
| Yards | 578 | 263 |
| Average | 19.3 | 20.2 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 54 | 58 |
| Yards | 2,058 | 2,320 |
| Average | 38.1 | 40.0 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 14 | 14 |
| Yards | 98 | 179 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 1 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 16 | 18 |
| Lost | 10 | 11 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 74 | 44 |
| Yards | 657 | 421 |
| Yards / Game | 50.5 | 32.4 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 32:04 | 27:56 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 155 | 178 |
| Conversions | 64 | 67 |
| Conversion % | 41.3% | 37.6% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 12 | 13 |
| Conversions | 5 | 7 |
| Conversion % | 41.7% | 53.8% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 53 | 44 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 46 | 37 |
| Score % | 86.8% | 84.1% |
| Touchdowns | 37 | 23 |
| TD % | 69.8% | 52.3% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 18 | 28 |
| Made | 10 | 21 |
| Pct | 55.6% | 75.0% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 48 | 32 |
| Made | 48 | 31 |
| Pct | 100.0% | 96.9% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 2 | 1 |
| Made | 1 | 1 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.