Fourth Down Data
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ASU

Arizona State

Sun DevilsRun-Heavy
Big 12 Conference8-5#57 (+1.65)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

57· COverall
Offense
60· CRating
80· BPer play
79· BConsistency
88· BBig plays
Defense
73· BRating
77· BPer play
41· CConsistency
Situational
68· CRed-zone O
36· DRed-zone D
68· C3rd down O
70· B3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.046
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.047
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.075
Defensive EPA/play
-0.067
lower = better
Off Success Rate
49.4%
Def Success Rate
46.5%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
26.6%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.5%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.142
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.111
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.51

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-1.06
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.11
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.80
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.36
own return game
Return Defense
+0.21
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#57
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#12
market 45 higher
Recruiting Rank
#31
recruiting 26 spots higher
14 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Arizona State ranks among all FBS teams in 2021 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
67th
Opp-adjusted defense
69th
Offensive EPA/play
80th
Defensive EPA/play
77th
Offensive success rate
80th
Explosiveness
89th
Defensive havoc
56th
Points per drive
71th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Oregon2017OA +0.036 / +0.077similar: TD drive rate, offensive success rate, run defense3572Ohio2025OA +0.039 / -0.025similar: offensive EPA, TD drive rate, rushing offense3543Wisconsin2018OA +0.015 / +0.070similar: pass defense, defensive EPA, takeaway rate3524Louisiana2020OA +0.039 / +0.022similar: offensive success rate, TD drive rate, takeaway rate3465UCLA2020OA +0.029 / +0.008similar: offensive EPA, offensive success rate, TD drive rate338

2021 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Southern Utah41-14W----
2vs UNLV37-10W-35.0L54.5U
3@ BYU17-27L-3.0L50.5U
4vs Colorado35-13W-14.0W45O
5@ UCLA42-23W-13.0W51.5U
6vs Stanford28-10W----
7@ Utah21-35L-1.0L50.5O
9vs Washington State21-34L-16.0L53O
10vs USC31-16W-8.5W59.5U
11@ Washington35-30W-5.5L44O
12@ Oregon State10-24L-3.0L59.5U
13vs Arizona38-15W-20.0W52.5O
18vs Wisconsin13-20L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
5-7-1
41.7%
O/U Record
6-7
46.2%
Straight Up
8-5
61.5%
Home ATS4-3
Away ATS1-4
Favorite ATS4-7
Underdog ATS1-0
Last 5 ATS
WLLWP
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off79thRush Off68thRed Zone Off69th3rd Down Off68thPass Def73thRush Def65thRed Zone Def36th3rd Down Def71th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.06174th-0.06674th
Red Zone+0.06669th+0.02236th
Third Down+0.16868th-0.02671th
No Garbage Time+0.06877th-0.06071th
First Half+0.07275th+0.01541th
Second Half+0.05172th-0.15991th
Early Downs+0.06276th-0.03559th
Passing Downs+0.08579th-0.09973th
Standard Downs+0.05168th-0.04865th
Goal to Go+0.13178th+0.18623th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 38.7%Rush 61.3%
Havoc/Game
12.8
Havoc Rate
19.0%
TO Margin
-0.1
Explosive/G
15.5
Yards/Game
387.9
Pts/Drive
2.51
3rd Down%
45.0%
3&Out%
13.4%

Team Statistics

2021 season totals across 13 games — Arizona State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatArizona StateOpponents
Scoring
Points369271
Points / Game28.420.8
First Downs
Total261254
Rushing140100
Passing107119
Penalty1435
Rushing
Attempts495471
Yards2,5131,709
Yards / Carry5.13.6
Yards / Game193.3131.5
Touchdowns3418
Passing
Attempts313382
Completions206229
Completion %65.8%59.9%
Yards2,5302,533
Yards / Attempt8.16.6
Touchdowns1213
Interceptions1016
Passer Rating139.97118.50
Total Offense
Plays808853
Yards5,0434,242
Yards / Play6.25.0
Yards / Game387.9326.3
Punt Returns
Returns2116
Yards25590
Average12.15.6
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns3617
Yards681338
Average18.919.9
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts4655
Yards1,9982,507
Average43.445.6
Interception Returns
Returns1610
Yards25640
Touchdowns30
Fumbles
Fumbles1710
Lost125
Penalties
Penalties11366
Yards1,015614
Yards / Game78.147.2
Time of Possession
Per Game29:2130:34
Third Downs
Attempts149178
Conversions6767
Conversion %45.0%37.6%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1425
Conversions913
Conversion %64.3%52.0%
Red Zone
Trips5245
Scores (TD + FG)4239
Score %80.8%86.7%
Touchdowns3426
TD %65.4%57.8%
Field Goals
Attempts1324
Made819
Pct61.5%79.2%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4628
Made4328
Pct93.5%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts33
Made30
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →