Fourth Down Data
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UL

Louisiana

Ragin' CajunsRun-Heavy
Sun Belt Conference10-1#13 (+8.50)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

90· A-Overall
Offense
85· BRating
84· BPer play
81· BConsistency
88· BBig plays
Defense
77· BRating
67· CPer play
47· CConsistency
Situational
73· BRed-zone O
44· CRed-zone D
90· A-3rd down O
59· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.039
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.022
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.118
Defensive EPA/play
-0.027
lower = better
Off Success Rate
49.9%
Def Success Rate
47.2%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
27.2%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
25.1%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.145
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.078
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.62

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+2.82
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.10
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.99
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+1.20
own return game
Return Defense
+0.53
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#13
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#15
model 2 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
#12
market 1 higher
Recruiting Rank
#38
model 25 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Louisiana ranks among all FBS teams in 2020 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
86th
Opp-adjusted defense
74th
Offensive EPA/play
84th
Defensive EPA/play
68th
Offensive success rate
80th
Explosiveness
89th
Defensive havoc
26th
Points per drive
78th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Arizona State2021OA +0.046 / +0.047similar: offensive success rate, TD drive rate, takeaway rate3462Arizona State2020OA +0.031 / +0.014similar: rushing offense, takeaway rate, defensive EPA3313Oregon2021OA +0.003 / -0.012similar: offensive EPA, run defense, rushing offense3304UAB2022OA -0.012 / -0.013similar: pass defense, TD drive rate, offensive EPA3245San Diego State2017OA +0.025 / +0.065similar: defensive EPA, TD drive rate, passing offense321

2020 Schedule & Results

11 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
2@ Iowa State31-14W+11.5W56U
3@ Georgia State34-31W-15.5L57.25O
4vs Georgia Southern20-18W-11.5L52.25U
7vs Coastal Carolina27-30L-2.5W50U
8@ UAB24-20W----
9@ Texas State44-34W-16.5L56O
10vs Arkansas State27-20W-14.0L66U
11vs South Alabama38-10W-15.5W54U
13@ UL Monroe70-20W-28.5W54.5O
14@ App State24-21W----
17@ UTSA31-24W-13.0L57.5U

Betting Profile

ATS Record
5-6
45.5%
O/U Record
3-8
27.3%
Straight Up
10-1
90.9%
Home ATS1-3
Away ATS4-3
Favorite ATS3-6
Underdog ATS2-0
Last 5 ATS
LWWWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off63thRush Off88thRed Zone Off73th3rd Down Off91thPass Def89thRush Def55thRed Zone Def45th3rd Down Def59th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.11484th-0.03870th
Red Zone+0.11673th+0.01245th
Third Down+0.34691th+0.01859th
No Garbage Time+0.11483th-0.02766th
First Half+0.10976th-0.03167th
Second Half+0.11984th-0.04670th
Early Downs+0.08784th-0.03568th
Passing Downs+0.10363th-0.13189th
Standard Downs+0.11988th+0.00755th
Goal to Go+0.17569th+0.18726th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 41.9%Rush 58.1%
Havoc/Game
11.6
Havoc Rate
15.9%
TO Margin
+0.9
Explosive/G
17.4
Yards/Game
421.5
Pts/Drive
2.62
3rd Down%
42.8%
3&Out%
13.9%

Team Statistics

2020 season totals across 11 games — Louisiana vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatLouisianaOpponents
Scoring
Points370242
Points / Game33.622.0
First Downs
Total231234
Rushing120119
Passing9589
Penalty1626
Rushing
Attempts429471
Yards2,3432,032
Yards / Carry5.54.3
Yards / Game213.0184.7
Touchdowns2520
Passing
Attempts310324
Completions180168
Completion %58.1%51.9%
Yards2,2941,877
Yards / Attempt7.45.8
Touchdowns2010
Interceptions716
Passer Rating137.00100.82
Total Offense
Plays739795
Yards4,6373,909
Yards / Play6.34.9
Yards / Game421.5355.4
Punt Returns
Returns2317
Yards17199
Average7.45.8
Touchdowns10
Kickoff Returns
Returns3538
Yards810680
Average23.117.9
Touchdowns20
Punting
Punts3646
Yards1,5671,847
Average43.540.2
Interception Returns
Returns167
Yards17867
Touchdowns10
Fumbles
Fumbles1512
Lost67
Penalties
Penalties6856
Yards676447
Yards / Game61.540.6
Time of Possession
Per Game28:2831:32
Third Downs
Attempts138170
Conversions5974
Conversion %42.8%43.5%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2527
Conversions1115
Conversion %44.0%55.6%
Red Zone
Trips5238
Scores (TD + FG)4232
Score %80.8%84.2%
Touchdowns3324
TD %63.5%63.2%
Field Goals
Attempts1515
Made1010
Pct66.7%66.7%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4626
Made4424
Pct95.7%92.3%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts24
Made12
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →