Fourth Down Data
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ORE

Oregon

DucksBalanced
Big Ten Conference10-4#65 (+0.41)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

51· COverall
Offense
68· CRating
83· BPer play
92· A-Consistency
57· CBig plays
Defense
40· CRating
36· DPer play
26· DConsistency
Situational
94· ARed-zone O
10· FRed-zone D
88· B3rd down O
20· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.003
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.012
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.084
Defensive EPA/play
+0.022
lower = better
Off Success Rate
51.3%
Def Success Rate
48.5%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.9%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
25.6%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.063
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.028
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.65

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.80
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.29
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.07
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.43
own return game
Return Defense
-0.87
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#65
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#22
AP 43 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
#20
market 45 higher
Recruiting Rank
#9
recruiting 56 spots higher
51 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Oregon ranks among all FBS teams in 2021 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
48th
Opp-adjusted defense
41th
Offensive EPA/play
84th
Defensive EPA/play
36th
Offensive success rate
95th
Explosiveness
57th
Defensive havoc
23th
Points per drive
83th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1UNLV2025OA +0.085 / -0.075similar: defensive EPA, rushing offense, offensive EPA4032Oregon State2021OA +0.096 / -0.057similar: offensive EPA, offensive success rate, TD drive rate3983Eastern Michigan2022OA +0.042 / -0.141similar: pass defense, TD drive rate, defensive success rate3824Coastal Carolina2019OA -0.000 / -0.063similar: offensive success rate, pass defense, havoc rate3675Washington State2024OA +0.048 / -0.028similar: offensive success rate, defensive success rate, takeaway rate366

2021 Schedule & Results

14 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Fresno State31-24W-20.5L64U
2@ Ohio State35-28W+13.5W62.5O
3vs Stony Brook48-7W-28.5W56U
4vs Arizona41-19W-29.5L58O
5@ Stanford24-31L-8.0L58U
7vs California24-17W----
8@ UCLA34-31W+2.0W60O
9vs Colorado52-29W-24.0L49O
10@ Washington26-16W-6.5W51.5U
11vs Washington State38-24W-14.0P56.5O
12@ Utah7-38L+3.0L59U
13vs Oregon State38-29W-7.0W61O
14@ Utah10-38L----
18@ Oklahoma32-47L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
5-8-1
38.5%
O/U Record
7-7
50.0%
Straight Up
10-4
71.4%
Home ATS2-4
Away ATS3-4
Favorite ATS3-5
Underdog ATS2-3
Last 5 ATS
PLLWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off62thRush Off97thRed Zone Off95th3rd Down Off89thPass Def37thRush Def34thRed Zone Def11th3rd Down Def20th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.12995th+0.03429th
Red Zone+0.22095th+0.19011th
Third Down+0.33289th+0.23320th
No Garbage Time+0.11590th+0.01538th
First Half+0.05468th+0.06226th
Second Half+0.20999th+0.00547th
Early Downs+0.11594th-0.09280th
Passing Downs+0.04162th+0.04137th
Standard Downs+0.16997th+0.03034th
Goal to Go+0.10075th+0.15227th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 43.3%Rush 56.7%
Havoc/Game
11.5
Havoc Rate
15.9%
TO Margin
+0.6
Explosive/G
14.8
Yards/Game
423.6
Pts/Drive
2.65
3rd Down%
51.1%
3&Out%
14.4%

Team Statistics

2021 season totals across 14 games — Oregon vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatOregonOpponents
Scoring
Points440378
Points / Game31.427.0
First Downs
Total321314
Rushing162122
Passing135162
Penalty2430
Rushing
Attempts536502
Yards2,8332,005
Yards / Carry5.34.0
Yards / Game202.4143.2
Touchdowns3624
Passing
Attempts410487
Completions259296
Completion %63.2%60.8%
Yards3,0983,380
Yards / Attempt7.66.9
Touchdowns2022
Interceptions817
Passer Rating138.84127.01
Total Offense
Plays946989
Yards5,9315,385
Yards / Play6.35.4
Yards / Game423.6384.6
Punt Returns
Returns1716
Yards170176
Average10.011.0
Touchdowns01
Kickoff Returns
Returns3637
Yards808853
Average22.423.1
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts4550
Yards1,8972,160
Average42.243.2
Interception Returns
Returns178
Yards162123
Touchdowns11
Fumbles
Fumbles1418
Lost66
Penalties
Penalties103111
Yards905866
Yards / Game64.661.9
Time of Possession
Per Game29:4630:14
Third Downs
Attempts180198
Conversions9291
Conversion %51.1%46.0%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1936
Conversions924
Conversion %47.4%66.7%
Red Zone
Trips5761
Scores (TD + FG)4853
Score %84.2%86.9%
Touchdowns3942
TD %68.4%68.9%
Field Goals
Attempts1615
Made1313
Pct81.3%86.7%
PAT Kicking
Attempts5641
Made5539
Pct98.2%95.1%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts17
Made14
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →