Fourth Down Data
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Oregon State

BeaversRun-Heavy
Pac-12 Conference7-6#55 (+2.29)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

59· COverall
Offense
85· BRating
85· BPer play
90· A-Consistency
69· CBig plays
Defense
31· DRating
24· DPer play
31· DConsistency
Situational
85· BRed-zone O
55· CRed-zone D
80· B3rd down O
2· F3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.096
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.057
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.088
Defensive EPA/play
+0.053
lower = better
Off Success Rate
51.0%
Def Success Rate
47.7%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
25.6%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
26.6%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.035
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.037
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.75

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.46
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.31
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.29
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.26
own return game
Return Defense
-0.39
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#55
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#52
market 3 higher
Recruiting Rank
#72
model 17 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Oregon State ranks among all FBS teams in 2021 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
85th
Opp-adjusted defense
23th
Offensive EPA/play
86th
Defensive EPA/play
24th
Offensive success rate
92th
Explosiveness
70th
Defensive havoc
36th
Points per drive
84th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Arizona2017OA +0.178 / -0.100similar: offensive success rate, defensive EPA, run defense4122Baylor2022OA +0.078 / -0.009similar: takeaway rate, havoc rate, defensive success rate4033Oregon2021OA +0.003 / -0.012similar: offensive EPA, offensive success rate, TD drive rate3984UCLA2021OA +0.125 / -0.079similar: defensive success rate, pass defense, rushing offense3875Kansas2023OA +0.208 / -0.066similar: offensive success rate, run defense, defensive EPA377

2021 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Purdue21-30L+7.0L68.5U
2vs Hawai'i45-27W-11.5W61.5O
3vs Idaho42-0W-28.5W63.5U
4@ USC45-27W+11.0W62.5O
5vs Washington27-24W-2.5W57.5U
6@ Washington State24-31L-3.5L59U
8vs Utah42-34W+3.0W56.5O
9@ California25-39L-1.5L55.5O
10@ Colorado34-37L-10.5L54O
11vs Stanford35-14W-12.0W56U
12vs Arizona State24-10W+3.0W59.5U
13@ Oregon29-38L+7.0L61O
16vs Utah State13-24L-7.0L68U

Betting Profile

ATS Record
7-6
53.8%
O/U Record
6-7
46.2%
Straight Up
7-6
53.8%
Home ATS6-1
Away ATS1-5
Favorite ATS4-4
Underdog ATS3-2
Last 5 ATS
LWWLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off49thRush Off92thRed Zone Off86th3rd Down Off81thPass Def14thRush Def35thRed Zone Def56th3rd Down Def2th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.08786th+0.06220th
Red Zone+0.14686th-0.06756th
Third Down+0.23481th+0.5272th
No Garbage Time+0.09086th+0.05327th
First Half+0.07376th-0.00750th
Second Half+0.10089th+0.1328th
Early Downs+0.08386th-0.02354th
Passing Downs-0.00449th+0.13014th
Standard Downs+0.12892th+0.02635th
Goal to Go+0.05666th-0.34083th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 40.0%Rush 60.0%
Havoc/Game
11.9
Havoc Rate
17.3%
TO Margin
+0.1
Explosive/G
16.2
Yards/Game
429.2
Pts/Drive
2.75
3rd Down%
49.4%
3&Out%
10.9%

Team Statistics

2021 season totals across 13 games — Oregon State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatOregon StateOpponents
Scoring
Points406335
Points / Game31.225.8
First Downs
Total300290
Rushing165118
Passing116142
Penalty1930
Rushing
Attempts521452
Yards2,7601,867
Yards / Carry5.34.1
Yards / Game212.3143.6
Touchdowns3319
Passing
Attempts347431
Completions218267
Completion %62.8%61.9%
Yards2,8203,166
Yards / Attempt8.17.3
Touchdowns1922
Interceptions1215
Passer Rating142.24133.54
Total Offense
Plays868883
Yards5,5805,033
Yards / Play6.45.7
Yards / Game429.2387.2
Punt Returns
Returns147
Yards14757
Average10.58.1
Touchdowns10
Kickoff Returns
Returns1615
Yards320344
Average20.022.9
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts3441
Yards1,5571,699
Average45.841.4
Interception Returns
Returns1512
Yards6577
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles1310
Lost64
Penalties
Penalties8981
Yards820656
Yards / Game63.150.5
Time of Possession
Per Game30:3029:30
Third Downs
Attempts160185
Conversions7993
Conversion %49.4%50.3%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2321
Conversions118
Conversion %47.8%38.1%
Red Zone
Trips5754
Scores (TD + FG)4844
Score %84.2%81.5%
Touchdowns4032
TD %70.2%59.3%
Field Goals
Attempts1822
Made1216
Pct66.7%72.7%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4839
Made4839
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts52
Made21
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →