Fourth Down Data
← All Teams
BAY

Baylor

BearsBalanced
Big 12 Conference6-7#58 (+1.63)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

57· COverall
Offense
73· BRating
71· BPer play
71· BConsistency
87· BBig plays
Defense
46· CRating
29· DPer play
28· DConsistency
Situational
86· BRed-zone O
18· DRed-zone D
87· B3rd down O
17· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.078
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.009
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.063
Defensive EPA/play
+0.034
lower = better
Off Success Rate
49.6%
Def Success Rate
47.1%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
26.9%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.5%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.029
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.110
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.51

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.50
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.10
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.18
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.20
own return game
Return Defense
-0.78
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#58
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#44
market 14 higher
Recruiting Rank
#46
recruiting 12 spots higher
7 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Baylor ranks among all FBS teams in 2022 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
78th
Opp-adjusted defense
48th
Offensive EPA/play
72th
Defensive EPA/play
30th
Offensive success rate
81th
Explosiveness
88th
Defensive havoc
39th
Points per drive
67th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Oklahoma2022OA +0.102 / +0.001similar: TD drive rate, defensive EPA, rushing offense4042Oregon State2021OA +0.096 / -0.057similar: takeaway rate, havoc rate, defensive success rate4033TCU2022OA +0.134 / +0.023similar: rushing offense, defensive EPA, pass defense3954UCLA2021OA +0.125 / -0.079similar: pass defense, turnover rate, offensive success rate3855Houston2018OA +0.075 / -0.078similar: pass defense, havoc rate, turnover rate378

2022 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Albany69-10W-42.5W45.5O
2@ BYU20-26L+2.5L53U
3vs Texas State42-7W-30.0W53U
4@ Iowa State31-24W+2.5W45.5O
5vs Oklahoma State25-36L-2.0L56.5O
7@ West Virginia40-43L----
8vs Kansas35-23W-8.0W58P
9@ Texas Tech45-17W+2.5W62.5U
10@ Oklahoma38-35W+3.5W57.5O
11vs Kansas State3-31L-2.5L52.75U
12vs TCU28-29L+8.5L56O
13@ Texas27-38L----
17@ Air Force15-30L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
7-6
53.8%
O/U Record
6-6-1
50.0%
Straight Up
6-7
46.2%
Home ATS4-2
Away ATS3-4
Favorite ATS3-4
Underdog ATS4-2
Last 5 ATS
WLWLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off64thRush Off80thRed Zone Off87th3rd Down Off88thPass Def19thRush Def53thRed Zone Def19th3rd Down Def17th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.07076th+0.01536th
Red Zone+0.16387th+0.15219th
Third Down+0.33888th+0.26817th
No Garbage Time+0.04369th+0.04025th
First Half+0.11684th+0.01638th
Second Half+0.01859th+0.01433th
Early Downs+0.05077th-0.05361th
Passing Downs+0.06464th+0.10119th
Standard Downs+0.07380th-0.02753th
Goal to Go+0.33592th-0.02750th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 42.3%Rush 57.7%
Havoc/Game
12.2
Havoc Rate
17.3%
TO Margin
+0.2
Explosive/G
17.3
Yards/Game
413.8
Pts/Drive
2.51
3rd Down%
40.2%
3&Out%
15.3%

Team Statistics

2022 season totals across 13 games — Baylor vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatBaylorOpponents
Scoring
Points418349
Points / Game32.226.8
First Downs
Total295272
Rushing134123
Passing137130
Penalty2419
Rushing
Attempts535496
Yards2,3711,927
Yards / Carry4.43.9
Yards / Game182.4148.2
Touchdowns3425
Passing
Attempts392402
Completions247245
Completion %63.0%60.9%
Yards3,0092,896
Yards / Attempt7.77.2
Touchdowns1917
Interceptions1113
Passer Rating137.87128.95
Total Offense
Plays927898
Yards5,3804,823
Yards / Play5.85.4
Yards / Game413.8371.0
Punt Returns
Returns1514
Yards18966
Average12.64.7
Touchdowns10
Kickoff Returns
Returns3516
Yards596361
Average17.022.6
Touchdowns01
Punting
Punts4249
Yards1,7162,013
Average40.941.1
Interception Returns
Returns1311
Yards8766
Touchdowns10
Fumbles
Fumbles811
Lost66
Penalties
Penalties6268
Yards534539
Yards / Game41.141.5
Time of Possession
Per Game31:3028:30
Third Downs
Attempts179177
Conversions7281
Conversion %40.2%45.8%
Fourth Downs
Attempts4722
Conversions309
Conversion %63.8%40.9%
Red Zone
Trips5551
Scores (TD + FG)4446
Score %80.0%90.2%
Touchdowns3934
TD %70.9%66.7%
Field Goals
Attempts1218
Made814
Pct66.7%77.8%
PAT Kicking
Attempts5341
Made5039
Pct94.3%95.1%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts33
Made30
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →