Fourth Down Data
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UCLA

UCLA

BruinsRun-Heavy
Big Ten Conference8-4#36 (+4.90)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

73· BOverall
Offense
92· A-Rating
93· APer play
84· BConsistency
96· ABig plays
Defense
25· DRating
33· DPer play
23· DConsistency
Situational
97· A+Red-zone O
22· DRed-zone D
81· B3rd down O
11· F3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.125
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.079
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.139
Defensive EPA/play
+0.029
lower = better
Off Success Rate
49.1%
Def Success Rate
47.9%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
28.3%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
25.2%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.110
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.167
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
3.04

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+2.06
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.06
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.69
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+1.57
own return game
Return Defense
-0.14
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#36
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#43
model 7 higher
Recruiting Rank
#23
recruiting 13 spots higher
19 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where UCLA ranks among all FBS teams in 2021 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
89th
Opp-adjusted defense
17th
Offensive EPA/play
94th
Defensive EPA/play
34th
Offensive success rate
78th
Explosiveness
97th
Defensive havoc
53th
Points per drive
93th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Texas2019OA +0.093 / +0.011similar: defensive EPA, passing offense, run defense4292Louisville2017OA +0.148 / -0.016similar: defensive success rate, rushing offense, run defense4023SMU2017OA +0.140 / -0.078similar: defensive success rate, offensive success rate, offensive EPA3994Kansas2023OA +0.208 / -0.066similar: TD drive rate, offensive EPA, takeaway rate3965Colorado State2017OA +0.040 / -0.109similar: turnover rate, offensive EPA, TD drive rate393

2021 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
0vs Hawai'i44-10W-17.5W67U
1vs LSU38-27W+3.0W65.5U
3vs Fresno State37-40L-11.0L64.5O
4@ Stanford35-24W-7.5W--
5vs Arizona State23-42L-3.0L55.5O
6@ Arizona34-16W-16.0W61U
7@ Washington24-17W+1.5W55.5U
8vs Oregon31-34L-2.0L60O
9@ Utah24-44L+6.5L60.5O
11vs Colorado44-20W-16.5W57O
12@ USC62-33W-3.0W65.5O
13vs California42-14W-7.0W57.5U

Betting Profile

ATS Record
8-4
66.7%
O/U Record
6-5
54.5%
Straight Up
8-4
66.7%
Home ATS4-3
Away ATS4-1
Favorite ATS6-3
Underdog ATS2-1
Last 5 ATS
LLWWW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off84thRush Off92thRed Zone Off98th3rd Down Off82thPass Def38thRush Def41thRed Zone Def23th3rd Down Def11th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.12494th+0.02238th
Red Zone+0.24598th+0.10123th
Third Down+0.23582th+0.29411th
No Garbage Time+0.13695th+0.03732th
First Half+0.10381th+0.06723th
Second Half+0.14395th-0.03157th
Early Downs+0.06680th-0.00844th
Passing Downs+0.11584th+0.03238th
Standard Downs+0.12892th+0.01741th
Goal to Go+0.20687th-0.23376th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 39.2%Rush 60.8%
Havoc/Game
13.5
Havoc Rate
18.7%
TO Margin
+0.4
Explosive/G
19.0
Yards/Game
441.3
Pts/Drive
3.04
3rd Down%
46.0%
3&Out%
12.8%

Team Statistics

2021 season totals across 12 games — UCLA vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatUCLAOpponents
Scoring
Points438321
Points / Game36.526.8
First Downs
Total282258
Rushing14699
Passing117132
Penalty1927
Rushing
Attempts519397
Yards2,5811,491
Yards / Carry5.03.8
Yards / Game215.1124.3
Touchdowns3124
Passing
Attempts335445
Completions207278
Completion %61.8%62.5%
Yards2,7143,122
Yards / Attempt8.17.0
Touchdowns2315
Interceptions812
Passer Rating147.72127.13
Total Offense
Plays854842
Yards5,2954,613
Yards / Play6.25.5
Yards / Game441.3384.4
Punt Returns
Returns158
Yards26836
Average17.94.5
Touchdowns20
Kickoff Returns
Returns2424
Yards657571
Average27.423.8
Touchdowns10
Punting
Punts3444
Yards1,4641,852
Average43.142.1
Interception Returns
Returns128
Yards14447
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles1115
Lost67
Penalties
Penalties8572
Yards774528
Yards / Game64.544.0
Time of Possession
Per Game29:4630:08
Third Downs
Attempts163161
Conversions7571
Conversion %46.0%44.1%
Fourth Downs
Attempts3024
Conversions2010
Conversion %66.7%41.7%
Red Zone
Trips5043
Scores (TD + FG)4440
Score %88.0%93.0%
Touchdowns3727
TD %74.0%62.8%
Field Goals
Attempts2120
Made1416
Pct66.7%80.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts5436
Made5235
Pct96.3%97.2%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts33
Made11
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →