Fourth Down Data
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SMU

SMU

MustangsBalanced
Atlantic Coast Conference7-6#66 (+1.51)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

51· COverall
Offense
88· BRating
90· A-Per play
83· BConsistency
91· A-Big plays
Defense
25· DRating
13· FPer play
23· DConsistency
Situational
68· CRed-zone O
36· DRed-zone D
74· B3rd down O
11· F3rd down D
How grades work →2017 is the earliest season the model grades — first-year numbers run a touch noisier than later seasons.

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.140
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.078
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.131
Defensive EPA/play
+0.101
lower = better
Off Success Rate
48.4%
Def Success Rate
48.6%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
26.9%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
28.8%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.029
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.043
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.81

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-1.33
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.56
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.63
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.11
own return game
Return Defense
-0.03
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#66
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#75
model 9 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where SMU ranks among all FBS teams in 2017 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
91th
Opp-adjusted defense
25th
Offensive EPA/play
91th
Defensive EPA/play
13th
Offensive success rate
76th
Explosiveness
92th
Defensive havoc
56th
Points per drive
89th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1UCF2020OA +0.077 / -0.036similar: rushing offense, havoc rate, offensive EPA4682Washington State2024OA +0.048 / -0.028similar: takeaway rate, offensive EPA, TD drive rate4653Memphis2017OA +0.130 / +0.006similar: offensive EPA, rushing offense, passing offense4644North Carolina2021OA +0.091 / -0.074similar: passing offense, offensive EPA, defensive EPA4415Duke2025OA +0.147 / -0.119similar: pass defense, offensive EPA, defensive EPA437

2017 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Stephen F. Austin58-14W-4.0L71U
2vs North Texas54-32W-13.5W64.5O
3@ TCU36-56L+22.0W65O
4vs Arkansas State44-21W-2.5W72.5U
5vs UConn49-28W-16.5W74O
6@ Houston22-35L+10.0L61U
8@ Cincinnati31-28W-5.5L65U
9vs Tulsa38-34W-11.5L77.5U
10vs UCF24-31L+14.0W76U
11@ Navy40-43L+1.5L66O
12@ Memphis45-66L+10.5L71.5O
13vs Tulane41-38W-7.0L66O
17vs Louisiana Tech10-51L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
5-7
41.7%
O/U Record
6-6
50.0%
Straight Up
6-6
50.0%
Home ATS4-3
Away ATS1-4
Favorite ATS3-4
Underdog ATS2-3
Last 5 ATS
LWLLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off74thRush Off95thRed Zone Off68th3rd Down Off74thPass Def11thRush Def19thRed Zone Def36th3rd Down Def11th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.12192th+0.09912th
Red Zone+0.07168th+0.07136th
Third Down+0.12374th+0.20111th
No Garbage Time+0.14293th+0.11311th
First Half+0.13089th+0.1725th
Second Half+0.11187th+0.01336th
Early Downs+0.12496th+0.07912th
Passing Downs+0.09374th+0.18211th
Standard Downs+0.13495th+0.05819th
Goal to Go+0.11070th-0.02047th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 50.1%Rush 49.9%
Havoc/Game
14.0
Havoc Rate
18.9%
TO Margin
+0.3
Explosive/G
17.5
Yards/Game
478.5
Pts/Drive
2.81
3rd Down%
43.2%
3&Out%
16.9%

Team Statistics

2017 season totals across 13 games — SMU vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatSMUOpponents
Scoring
Points492477
Points / Game37.836.7
First Downs
Total312304
Rushing121135
Passing161146
Penalty3023
Rushing
Attempts486546
Yards2,3972,700
Yards / Carry4.94.9
Yards / Game184.4207.7
Touchdowns2633
Passing
Attempts487394
Completions283247
Completion %58.1%62.7%
Yards3,8233,497
Yards / Attempt7.98.9
Touchdowns3526
Interceptions1312
Passer Rating142.43152.93
Total Offense
Plays973940
Yards6,2206,197
Yards / Play6.46.6
Yards / Game478.5476.7
Punt Returns
Returns710
Yards2667
Average3.76.7
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns4855
Yards9351,329
Average19.524.2
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts5947
Yards2,3961,886
Average40.640.1
Interception Returns
Returns1213
Yards168226
Touchdowns23
Fumbles
Fumbles1319
Lost611
Penalties
Penalties8394
Yards769861
Yards / Game59.266.2
Time of Possession
Per Game29:3330:27
Third Downs
Attempts192182
Conversions8378
Conversion %43.2%42.9%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2029
Conversions1413
Conversion %70.0%44.8%
Red Zone
Trips5153
Scores (TD + FG)4443
Score %86.3%81.1%
Touchdowns3334
TD %64.7%64.2%
Field Goals
Attempts2119
Made1514
Pct71.4%73.7%
PAT Kicking
Attempts6358
Made5757
Pct90.5%98.3%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts14
Made13
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →