Fourth Down Data
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HOU

Houston

CougarsBalanced
Big 12 Conference8-5#64 (+0.87)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

52· COverall
Offense
86· BRating
96· APer play
62· CConsistency
96· ABig plays
Defense
21· DRating
36· DPer play
34· DConsistency
Situational
97· A+Red-zone O
5· FRed-zone D
94· A3rd down O
32· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.075
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.078
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.166
Defensive EPA/play
+0.037
lower = better
Off Success Rate
47.4%
Def Success Rate
48.9%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
28.1%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
22.5%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.130
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.207
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.96

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.39
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.10
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.38
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.26
own return game
Return Defense
+0.14
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#64
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#53
recruiting 11 spots higher
3 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Houston ranks among all FBS teams in 2018 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
77th
Opp-adjusted defense
21th
Offensive EPA/play
97th
Defensive EPA/play
37th
Offensive success rate
61th
Explosiveness
97th
Defensive havoc
34th
Points per drive
91th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1SMU2022OA +0.037 / -0.085similar: TD drive rate, pass defense, turnover rate3812Baylor2022OA +0.078 / -0.009similar: pass defense, havoc rate, turnover rate3783UNLV2025OA +0.085 / -0.075similar: rushing offense, passing offense, defensive EPA3724Washington State2024OA +0.048 / -0.028similar: havoc rate, TD drive rate, offensive EPA3695North Carolina2020OA +0.097 / -0.025similar: offensive EPA, TD drive rate, pass defense369

2018 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Rice45-27W+6.5L56O
2vs Arizona45-18W-3.0W71U
3@ Texas Tech49-63L--68O
4vs Texas Southern70-14W-55.0W65.5O
6vs Tulsa41-26W-17.5L71.5U
7@ East Carolina42-20W-16.0W69.5U
8@ Navy49-36W-11.0W59.5O
9vs South Florida57-36W-10.0W76O
10@ SMU31-45L-14.0L71O
11vs Temple49-59L-3.5L69.5O
12vs Tulane48-17W-7.5W68U
13@ Memphis31-52L+9.5L75.5O
17@ Army14-70L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
6-5
54.5%
O/U Record
8-4
66.7%
Straight Up
7-5
58.3%
Home ATS4-2
Away ATS2-3
Favorite ATS6-3
Underdog ATS0-2
Last 5 ATS
WLLWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off85thRush Off93thRed Zone Off98th3rd Down Off95thPass Def52thRush Def14thRed Zone Def5th3rd Down Def33th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.13694th+0.06820th
Red Zone+0.33598th+0.3075th
Third Down+0.39895th+0.11333th
No Garbage Time+0.15295th+0.03933th
First Half+0.09983th+0.04730th
Second Half+0.17696th+0.09021th
Early Downs+0.10393th+0.08415th
Passing Downs+0.15785th-0.00452th
Standard Downs+0.12493th+0.10214th
Goal to Go+0.50598th+0.19931th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 46.9%Rush 53.1%
Havoc/Game
14.8
Havoc Rate
17.3%
TO Margin
+0.4
Explosive/G
18.2
Yards/Game
512.5
Pts/Drive
2.96
3rd Down%
45.9%
3&Out%
18.8%

Team Statistics

2018 season totals across 13 games — Houston vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatHoustonOpponents
Scoring
Points571483
Points / Game43.937.2
First Downs
Total334335
Rushing147152
Passing160161
Penalty2722
Rushing
Attempts536616
Yards2,8222,877
Yards / Carry5.34.7
Yards / Game217.1221.3
Touchdowns2942
Passing
Attempts474469
Completions284279
Completion %59.9%59.5%
Yards3,8413,582
Yards / Attempt8.17.6
Touchdowns4519
Interceptions914
Passer Rating155.52131.04
Total Offense
Plays1,0101,085
Yards6,6636,459
Yards / Play6.66.0
Yards / Game512.5496.8
Punt Returns
Returns1719
Yards167159
Average9.88.4
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns2359
Yards4841,218
Average21.020.6
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts6168
Yards2,5232,842
Average41.441.8
Interception Returns
Returns149
Yards23658
Touchdowns20
Fumbles
Fumbles1821
Lost1010
Penalties
Penalties8794
Yards683826
Yards / Game52.563.5
Time of Possession
Per Game25:0334:57
Third Downs
Attempts194224
Conversions89104
Conversion %45.9%46.4%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2820
Conversions1410
Conversion %50.0%50.0%
Red Zone
Trips5763
Scores (TD + FG)5058
Score %87.7%92.1%
Touchdowns4547
TD %78.9%74.6%
Field Goals
Attempts1121
Made816
Pct72.7%76.2%
PAT Kicking
Attempts7659
Made7557
Pct98.7%96.6%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts23
Made21
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →