Fourth Down Data
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ARIZ

Arizona

WildcatsRun-Heavy
Big 12 Conference7-6#48 (+5.79)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

64· COverall
Offense
95· ARating
93· APer play
87· BConsistency
85· BBig plays
Defense
30· DRating
23· DPer play
15· DConsistency
Situational
86· BRed-zone O
33· DRed-zone D
84· B3rd down O
17· D3rd down D
How grades work →2017 is the earliest season the model grades — first-year numbers run a touch noisier than later seasons.

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.178
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.100
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.166
Defensive EPA/play
+0.073
lower = better
Off Success Rate
50.9%
Def Success Rate
50.5%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
26.0%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
27.1%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.094
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.115
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.89

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-1.22
expected pts/game
Kicking
-1.33
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.08
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.17
own return game
Return Defense
-0.13
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#48
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#39
recruiting 9 spots higher
8 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Arizona ranks among all FBS teams in 2017 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
98th
Opp-adjusted defense
18th
Offensive EPA/play
94th
Defensive EPA/play
23th
Offensive success rate
92th
Explosiveness
86th
Defensive havoc
43th
Points per drive
92th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Florida2026OA +0.067 / -0.051similar: defensive EPA, takeaway rate, TD drive rate4992Washington State2024OA +0.048 / -0.028similar: offensive EPA, defensive success rate, offensive success rate4233SMU2017OA +0.140 / -0.078similar: offensive EPA, TD drive rate, pass defense4164Oregon State2021OA +0.096 / -0.057similar: offensive success rate, defensive EPA, run defense4125Kansas2023OA +0.208 / -0.066similar: offensive success rate, TD drive rate, pass defense393

2017 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Northern Arizona62-24W-2.5L64.5O
2vs Houston16-19L+1.0L64.5U
3@ UTEP63-16W-25.0W58.5O
4vs Utah24-30L+4.5L61U
6@ Colorado45-42W+7.0W59.5O
7vs UCLA47-30W+3.0W76O
8@ California45-44W-5.0L66O
9vs Washington State58-37W--63O
10@ USC35-49L+6.5L76O
11vs Oregon State49-28W-20.5W68.5O
12@ Oregon28-48L+3.0L77U
13@ Arizona State30-42L-2.0L75.5U
18@ Purdue35-38L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
4-7
36.4%
O/U Record
8-4
66.7%
Straight Up
6-6
50.0%
Home ATS2-2
Away ATS2-5
Favorite ATS2-3
Underdog ATS2-4
Last 5 ATS
LWLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off92thRush Off98thRed Zone Off86th3rd Down Off85thPass Def6thRush Def23thRed Zone Def33th3rd Down Def17th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.17796th+0.10111th
Red Zone+0.18786th+0.08033th
Third Down+0.18785th+0.17417th
No Garbage Time+0.17195th+0.06723th
First Half+0.21296th+0.05331th
Second Half+0.14294th+0.1514th
Early Downs+0.10492th+0.04623th
Passing Downs+0.20192th+0.2276th
Standard Downs+0.16798th+0.04123th
Goal to Go+0.26185th-0.04450th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 32.5%Rush 67.5%
Havoc/Game
13.8
Havoc Rate
17.3%
TO Margin
+0.2
Explosive/G
16.5
Yards/Game
489.5
Pts/Drive
2.89
3rd Down%
42.3%
3&Out%
17.6%

Team Statistics

2017 season totals across 13 games — Arizona vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatArizonaOpponents
Scoring
Points537447
Points / Game41.334.4
First Downs
Total307321
Rushing169128
Passing98164
Penalty4029
Rushing
Attempts613522
Yards4,0212,406
Yards / Carry6.64.6
Yards / Game309.3185.1
Touchdowns4832
Passing
Attempts295493
Completions183307
Completion %62.0%62.3%
Yards2,3433,719
Yards / Attempt7.97.5
Touchdowns1925
Interceptions1319
Passer Rating141.19134.66
Total Offense
Plays9081,015
Yards6,3646,125
Yards / Play7.06.0
Yards / Game489.5471.2
Punt Returns
Returns1817
Yards186205
Average10.312.1
Touchdowns21
Kickoff Returns
Returns3128
Yards771625
Average24.922.3
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts5157
Yards1,7442,354
Average34.241.3
Interception Returns
Returns1913
Yards32083
Touchdowns21
Fumbles
Fumbles1213
Lost96
Penalties
Penalties68107
Yards705993
Yards / Game54.276.4
Time of Possession
Per Game28:3831:22
Third Downs
Attempts168197
Conversions7192
Conversion %42.3%46.7%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1725
Conversions1214
Conversion %70.6%56.0%
Red Zone
Trips5263
Scores (TD + FG)4648
Score %88.5%76.2%
Touchdowns3742
TD %71.2%66.7%
Field Goals
Attempts1917
Made1411
Pct73.7%64.7%
PAT Kicking
Attempts6956
Made6754
Pct97.1%96.4%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts23
Made12
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →