Fourth Down Data
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Charlotte

49ersRun-Heavy
American Conference7-6#99 (-7.92)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

27· DOverall
Offense
69· CRating
90· A-Per play
91· A-Consistency
89· BBig plays
Defense
7· FRating
15· DPer play
30· DConsistency
Situational
96· ARed-zone O
33· DRed-zone D
95· A3rd down O
16· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.119
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.146
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.134
Defensive EPA/play
+0.106
lower = better
Off Success Rate
50.0%
Def Success Rate
48.1%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
26.7%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
25.4%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.028
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.061
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.60

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-1.70
expected pts/game
Kicking
-1.27
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.01
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.12
own return game
Return Defense
-0.32
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#99
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#75
recruiting 24 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Charlotte ranks among all FBS teams in 2019 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
90th
Opp-adjusted defense
3th
Offensive EPA/play
91th
Defensive EPA/play
15th
Offensive success rate
88th
Explosiveness
90th
Defensive havoc
75th
Points per drive
78th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Kansas2023OA +0.208 / -0.066similar: run defense, rushing offense, defensive EPA4322Florida2026OA +0.067 / -0.051similar: pass defense, run defense, offensive EPA3863Oregon State2021OA +0.096 / -0.057similar: defensive success rate, TD drive rate, run defense3764Arizona2017OA +0.178 / -0.100similar: run defense, offensive EPA, offensive success rate3695Navy2017OA +0.069 / -0.058similar: defensive success rate, defensive EPA, rushing offense355

2019 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Gardner-Webb49-28W+7.0L52.5U
2@ App State41-56L+23.0W54O
3vs Massachusetts52-17W-20.5W66.5O
4@ Clemson10-52L+41.5L62P
5vs Florida Atlantic27-45L+2.5L63.5O
7@ Florida International23-48L+5.5L57.5O
8@ Western Kentucky14-30L+9.5L48U
9vs North Texas39-38W+4.0W64O
10vs Middle Tennessee34-20W+5.0W65U
11@ UTEP28-21W-13.0L55U
13vs Marshall24-13W+6.5W56.5U
14@ Old Dominion38-22W-10.0W51O
17vs Buffalo9-31L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
6-6
50.0%
O/U Record
6-5-1
54.5%
Straight Up
6-6
50.0%
Home ATS4-2
Away ATS2-4
Favorite ATS2-1
Underdog ATS4-5
Last 5 ATS
WWLWW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off94thRush Off65thRed Zone Off97th3rd Down Off96thPass Def30thRush Def9thRed Zone Def34th3rd Down Def16th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.11691th+0.08816th
Red Zone+0.43497th+0.05334th
Third Down+0.37396th+0.19716th
No Garbage Time+0.14391th+0.10712th
First Half+0.07271th+0.10916th
Second Half+0.16197th+0.06721th
Early Downs-0.00943th+0.05922th
Passing Downs+0.27394th+0.08430th
Standard Downs+0.03465th+0.0919th
Goal to Go+0.62998th+0.4203th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 37.9%Rush 62.1%
Havoc/Game
13.5
Havoc Rate
20.7%
TO Margin
-0.3
Explosive/G
15.3
Yards/Game
411.8
Pts/Drive
2.60
3rd Down%
41.0%
3&Out%
19.4%

Team Statistics

2019 season totals across 13 games — Charlotte vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatCharlotteOpponents
Scoring
Points388421
Points / Game29.832.4
First Downs
Total270252
Rushing129125
Passing119109
Penalty2218
Rushing
Attempts527510
Yards2,6052,495
Yards / Carry4.94.9
Yards / Game200.4191.9
Touchdowns2627
Passing
Attempts321314
Completions195195
Completion %60.7%62.1%
Yards2,7492,457
Yards / Attempt8.67.8
Touchdowns2423
Interceptions149
Passer Rating148.63146.27
Total Offense
Plays848824
Yards5,3544,952
Yards / Play6.36.0
Yards / Game411.8380.9
Punt Returns
Returns1819
Yards127238
Average7.112.5
Touchdowns13
Kickoff Returns
Returns2223
Yards380589
Average17.325.6
Touchdowns02
Punting
Punts5155
Yards1,9752,280
Average38.741.5
Interception Returns
Returns914
Yards101167
Touchdowns11
Fumbles
Fumbles1112
Lost56
Penalties
Penalties6875
Yards594744
Yards / Game45.757.2
Time of Possession
Per Game31:5928:01
Third Downs
Attempts156163
Conversions6468
Conversion %41.0%41.7%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2319
Conversions1315
Conversion %56.5%78.9%
Red Zone
Trips4352
Scores (TD + FG)3842
Score %88.4%80.8%
Touchdowns3235
TD %74.4%67.3%
Field Goals
Attempts1316
Made1010
Pct76.9%62.5%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4553
Made4251
Pct93.3%96.2%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts73
Made22
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →