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NAVY
Navy
MidshipmenRun-HeavyAmerican Conference7-6#45 (+6.43)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
66· COverall
Offense
76· BRating
82· BPer play
84· BConsistency
76· BBig plays
Defense
55· CRating
12· FPer play
28· DConsistency
Situational
85· BRed-zone O
19· DRed-zone D
86· B3rd down O
12· F3rd down D
How grades work →2017 is the earliest season the model grades — first-year numbers run a touch noisier than later seasons.
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
+0.069
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.058
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.088
Defensive EPA/play
+0.106
lower = better
Off Success Rate
49.5%
Def Success Rate
47.8%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
25.2%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
26.5%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.018
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.021
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.70
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-0.14
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.49
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.33
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.05
own return game
Return Defense
+0.06
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#45
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#75
model 30 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Navy ranks among all FBS teams in 2017 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense74th
Opp-adjusted defense29th
Offensive EPA/play83th
Defensive EPA/play12th
Offensive success rate83th
Explosiveness77th
Defensive havoc27th
Points per drive85th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1North Texas2022OA +0.077 / -0.108similar: defensive EPA, rushing offense, passing offense3902Army2019OA +0.004 / -0.066similar: offensive EPA, TD drive rate, run defense3743West Virginia2024OA +0.027 / -0.079similar: rushing offense, offensive EPA, takeaway rate3704Georgia Tech2018OA +0.123 / -0.089similar: passing offense, TD drive rate, offensive EPA3665Florida State2025OA +0.075 / -0.008similar: offensive EPA, turnover rate, rushing offense364
2017 Schedule & Results
13 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @ Florida Atlantic | 42-19 | W | -2.5 | W | 51 | O |
| 2 | vs Tulane | 23-21 | W | -8.0 | L | 49.5 | U |
| 4 | vs Cincinnati | 42-32 | W | -7.5 | W | 52.5 | O |
| 5 | @ Tulsa | 31-21 | W | -8.5 | W | 70.5 | U |
| 6 | vs Air Force | 48-45 | W | -9.0 | L | 53.5 | O |
| 7 | @ Memphis | 27-30 | L | +3.0 | P | 72.5 | U |
| 8 | vs UCF | 21-31 | L | +10.0 | P | 64.5 | U |
| 10 | @ Temple | 26-34 | L | -6.5 | L | 51.5 | O |
| 11 | vs SMU | 43-40 | W | -1.5 | W | 66 | O |
| 12 | @ Notre Dame | 17-24 | L | +21.0 | W | 58.5 | U |
| 13 | @ Houston | 14-24 | L | +6.5 | L | 55 | U |
| 15 | vs Army | 13-14 | L | -2.5 | L | 43.5 | U |
| 18 | vs Virginia | 49-7 | W | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
5-5-2
50.0%
O/U Record
5-7
41.7%
Straight Up
6-6
50.0%
Home ATS3-3
Away ATS2-2
Favorite ATS4-4
Underdog ATS1-1
Last 5 ATS
LWWLL
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | +0.083 | 83th | +0.094 | 14th |
| Red Zone | +0.185 | 86th | +0.152 | 19th |
| Third Down | +0.204 | 86th | +0.196 | 12th |
| No Garbage Time | +0.084 | 83th | +0.110 | 12th |
| First Half | +0.118 | 89th | -0.013 | 47th |
| Second Half | +0.050 | 77th | +0.202 | 2th |
| Early Downs | -0.015 | 59th | +0.110 | 10th |
| Passing Downs | +0.084 | 71th | +0.008 | 40th |
| Standard Downs | +0.083 | 86th | +0.136 | 6th |
| Goal to Go | +0.008 | 56th | +0.320 | 8th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 11.0%Rush 89.0%
Havoc/Game
9.6
Havoc Rate
15.8%
TO Margin
-0.2
Explosive/G
17.0
Yards/Game
428.7
Pts/Drive
2.70
3rd Down%
45.5%
3&Out%
13.0%
Team Statistics
2017 season totals across 13 games — Navy vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Navy | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 396 | 342 |
| Points / Game | 30.5 | 26.3 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 275 | 233 |
| Rushing | 232 | 101 |
| Passing | 29 | 115 |
| Penalty | 14 | 17 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 822 | 447 |
| Yards | 4,568 | 2,009 |
| Yards / Carry | 5.6 | 4.5 |
| Yards / Game | 351.4 | 154.5 |
| Touchdowns | 42 | 18 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 102 | 333 |
| Completions | 42 | 204 |
| Completion % | 41.2% | 61.3% |
| Yards | 1,005 | 2,805 |
| Yards / Attempt | 9.9 | 8.4 |
| Touchdowns | 10 | 23 |
| Interceptions | 10 | 7 |
| Passer Rating | 136.69 | 150.61 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 924 | 780 |
| Yards | 5,573 | 4,814 |
| Yards / Play | 6.0 | 6.2 |
| Yards / Game | 428.7 | 370.3 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 8 | 14 |
| Yards | 58 | 69 |
| Average | 7.3 | 4.9 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 37 | 50 |
| Yards | 730 | 929 |
| Average | 19.7 | 18.6 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 1 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 42 | 46 |
| Yards | 1,703 | 1,710 |
| Average | 40.5 | 37.2 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 7 | 10 |
| Yards | 52 | 56 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 15 | 13 |
| Lost | 9 | 9 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 53 | 67 |
| Yards | 528 | 523 |
| Yards / Game | 40.6 | 40.2 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 36:18 | 23:42 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 187 | 160 |
| Conversions | 85 | 68 |
| Conversion % | 45.5% | 42.5% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 35 | 18 |
| Conversions | 23 | 9 |
| Conversion % | 65.7% | 50.0% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 51 | 45 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 43 | 40 |
| Score % | 84.3% | 88.9% |
| Touchdowns | 35 | 30 |
| TD % | 68.6% | 66.7% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 18 | 18 |
| Made | 10 | 13 |
| Pct | 55.6% | 72.2% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 50 | 39 |
| Made | 48 | 37 |
| Pct | 96.0% | 94.9% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 2 | 4 |
| Made | 1 | 3 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.