Fourth Down Data
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ARMY

Army

Black KnightsRun-Heavy
American Conference5-8#83 (-4.10)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

38· DOverall
Offense
47· CRating
82· BPer play
88· BConsistency
81· BBig plays
Defense
38· DRating
25· DPer play
24· DConsistency
Situational
89· BRed-zone O
5· FRed-zone D
71· B3rd down O
3· F3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.004
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.066
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.097
Defensive EPA/play
+0.068
lower = better
Off Success Rate
52.1%
Def Success Rate
47.4%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
25.8%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.6%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.029
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.010
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.67

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.64
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.20
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.26
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.21
own return game
Return Defense
+0.04
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#83
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#75
recruiting 8 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Army ranks among all FBS teams in 2019 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
53th
Opp-adjusted defense
23th
Offensive EPA/play
83th
Defensive EPA/play
25th
Offensive success rate
93th
Explosiveness
82th
Defensive havoc
8th
Points per drive
84th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Navy2017OA +0.069 / -0.058similar: offensive EPA, TD drive rate, run defense3742Navy2025OA +0.116 / -0.031similar: defensive EPA, run defense, rushing offense3423Georgia Tech2018OA +0.123 / -0.089similar: TD drive rate, havoc rate, pass defense3364UCF2024OA +0.033 / -0.009similar: rushing offense, passing offense, offensive EPA3225Kansas2024OA +0.048 / -0.020similar: rushing offense, defensive EPA, offensive EPA320

2019 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Rice14-7W-23.5L46.5U
2@ Michigan21-24L+21.5W48U
3@ UTSA31-13W-14.5W44P
4vs Morgan State52-21W-45.5L55.5O
6vs Tulane33-42L+2.5L42.5O
7@ Western Kentucky8-17L-5.0L43.5U
8@ Georgia State21-28L-4.0L54.5U
9vs San José State29-34L-10.0L55O
10@ Air Force13-17L+17.0W44.5U
11vs Massachusetts63-7W-35.0W61O
12vs VMI47-6W----
14@ Hawai'i31-52L+2.0L55O
16@ Navy7-31L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
4-8
33.3%
O/U Record
5-6-1
45.5%
Straight Up
5-8
38.5%
Home ATS1-4
Away ATS3-4
Favorite ATS2-5
Underdog ATS2-3
Last 5 ATS
WWLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off48thRush Off95thRed Zone Off90th3rd Down Off72thPass Def49thRush Def23thRed Zone Def5th3rd Down Def3th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.10888th+0.04132th
Red Zone+0.21990th+0.2135th
Third Down+0.13572th+0.3623th
No Garbage Time+0.09782th+0.07023th
First Half+0.09275th+0.05330th
Second Half+0.12590th+0.03036th
Early Downs+0.07980th+0.04129th
Passing Downs+0.00848th-0.00549th
Standard Downs+0.14895th+0.06423th
Goal to Go+0.11571th+0.05636th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 14.5%Rush 85.5%
Havoc/Game
8.7
Havoc Rate
14.1%
TO Margin
-0.1
Explosive/G
15.5
Yards/Game
379.2
Pts/Drive
2.67
3rd Down%
45.2%
3&Out%
17.5%

Team Statistics

2019 season totals across 13 games — Army vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatArmyOpponents
Scoring
Points370299
Points / Game28.523.0
First Downs
Total272234
Rushing219110
Passing38110
Penalty1514
Rushing
Attempts743463
Yards3,8632,124
Yards / Carry5.24.6
Yards / Game297.2163.4
Touchdowns4521
Passing
Attempts126326
Completions59203
Completion %46.8%62.3%
Yards1,0662,326
Yards / Attempt8.57.1
Touchdowns616
Interceptions77
Passer Rating122.50134.11
Total Offense
Plays869789
Yards4,9294,450
Yards / Play5.75.6
Yards / Game379.2342.3
Punt Returns
Returns149
Yards3737
Average2.64.1
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns1738
Yards286799
Average16.821.0
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts3745
Yards1,6601,846
Average44.941.0
Interception Returns
Returns77
Yards155162
Touchdowns01
Fumbles
Fumbles2116
Lost1110
Penalties
Penalties6063
Yards496479
Yards / Game38.236.8
Time of Possession
Per Game32:5626:56
Third Downs
Attempts168165
Conversions7674
Conversion %45.2%44.8%
Fourth Downs
Attempts3924
Conversions2612
Conversion %66.7%50.0%
Red Zone
Trips5238
Scores (TD + FG)4433
Score %84.6%86.8%
Touchdowns4125
TD %78.8%65.8%
Field Goals
Attempts717
Made411
Pct57.1%64.7%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4735
Made4434
Pct93.6%97.1%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts53
Made12
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →