Fourth Down Data
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UCF

UCF

KnightsRun-Heavy
Big 12 Conference4-8#75 (-0.08)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

44· COverall
Offense
68· CRating
78· BPer play
77· BConsistency
82· BBig plays
Defense
44· CRating
30· DPer play
51· CConsistency
Situational
60· CRed-zone O
33· DRed-zone D
16· D3rd down O
27· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.033
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.009
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.069
Defensive EPA/play
+0.033
lower = better
Off Success Rate
49.8%
Def Success Rate
43.9%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
25.7%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.4%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.036
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.093
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.40

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-1.40
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.56
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.67
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.07
own return game
Return Defense
-0.10
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#75
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#31
market 44 higher
Recruiting Rank
#41
recruiting 34 spots higher
10 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where UCF ranks among all FBS teams in 2024 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
82th
Opp-adjusted defense
38th
Offensive EPA/play
78th
Defensive EPA/play
31th
Offensive success rate
86th
Explosiveness
83th
Defensive havoc
51th
Points per drive
65th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Florida Atlantic2018OA +0.003 / -0.016similar: takeaway rate, TD drive rate, rushing offense3392Missouri2017OA +0.143 / -0.049similar: takeaway rate, defensive EPA, pass defense3363Western Michigan2018OA +0.035 / -0.079similar: offensive EPA, offensive success rate, pass defense3274Michigan2025OA +0.091 / +0.024similar: defensive success rate, turnover rate, rushing offense3225Army2019OA +0.004 / -0.066similar: rushing offense, passing offense, offensive EPA322

2024 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs New Hampshire57-3W----
2vs Sam Houston45-14W-23.5W58O
3@ TCU35-34W-2.0L62.5O
5vs Colorado21-48L-14.0L62O
6@ Florida13-24L-2.5L61.5U
7vs Cincinnati13-19L-3.0L59U
8@ Iowa State35-38L+13.5W48.5O
9vs BYU24-37L-1.0L55.5O
10vs Arizona56-12W-6.0W55.5O
11@ Arizona State31-35L+3.0L55.5O
13@ West Virginia21-31L-9.5L47.5U
14vs Utah14-28L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
4-8
33.3%
O/U Record
7-5
58.3%
Straight Up
4-8
33.3%
Home ATS3-4
Away ATS1-4
Favorite ATS3-7
Underdog ATS1-1
Last 5 ATS
LWLLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off45thRush Off87thRed Zone Off60th3rd Down Off16thPass Def22thRush Def66thRed Zone Def33th3rd Down Def27th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.07378th+0.00744th
Red Zone+0.04960th+0.08733th
Third Down-0.04716th+0.18527th
No Garbage Time+0.06178th+0.02735th
First Half+0.04366th+0.08418th
Second Half+0.10784th-0.06780th
Early Downs+0.11592th-0.10382th
Passing Downs+0.00445th+0.10222th
Standard Downs+0.10387th-0.05166th
Goal to Go-0.04140th-0.02449th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 37.6%Rush 62.4%
Havoc/Game
12.3
Havoc Rate
18.1%
TO Margin
-0.7
Explosive/G
15.5
Yards/Game
447.8
Pts/Drive
2.40
3rd Down%
41.6%
3&Out%
13.9%

Team Statistics

2024 season totals across 12 games — UCF vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatUCFOpponents
Scoring
Points365323
Points / Game30.426.9
First Downs
Total283231
Rushing16282
Passing103127
Penalty1822
Rushing
Attempts516412
Yards2,9771,444
Yards / Carry5.83.5
Yards / Game248.1120.3
Touchdowns3314
Passing
Attempts311376
Completions181244
Completion %58.2%64.9%
Yards2,3962,624
Yards / Attempt7.77.0
Touchdowns1421
Interceptions119
Passer Rating130.70137.16
Total Offense
Plays827788
Yards5,3734,068
Yards / Play6.55.2
Yards / Game447.8339.0
Punt Returns
Returns1810
Yards171175
Average9.517.5
Touchdowns01
Kickoff Returns
Returns2320
Yards385423
Average16.721.1
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts4160
Yards1,7652,633
Average43.043.9
Interception Returns
Returns911
Yards23188
Touchdowns13
Fumbles
Fumbles1510
Lost82
Penalties
Penalties7876
Yards653588
Yards / Game54.449.0
Time of Possession
Per Game28:1831:42
Third Downs
Attempts154173
Conversions6474
Conversion %41.6%42.8%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2817
Conversions1512
Conversion %53.6%70.6%
Red Zone
Trips4544
Scores (TD + FG)3940
Score %86.7%90.9%
Touchdowns3227
TD %71.1%61.4%
Field Goals
Attempts1518
Made915
Pct60.0%83.3%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4537
Made4434
Pct97.8%91.9%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts33
Made22
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →