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Florida Atlantic

OwlsRun-Heavy
American Conference5-7#71 (+0.37)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

46· COverall
Offense
58· CRating
69· CPer play
68· CConsistency
68· CBig plays
Defense
49· CRating
43· CPer play
47· CConsistency
Situational
48· CRed-zone O
10· FRed-zone D
46· C3rd down O
26· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.003
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.016
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.049
Defensive EPA/play
+0.016
lower = better
Off Success Rate
48.5%
Def Success Rate
46.8%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.4%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
25.0%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.034
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.027
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.38

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.32
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.46
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.21
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.08
own return game
Return Defense
+0.27
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#71
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#77
model 6 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Florida Atlantic ranks among all FBS teams in 2018 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
47th
Opp-adjusted defense
43th
Offensive EPA/play
70th
Defensive EPA/play
43th
Offensive success rate
75th
Explosiveness
68th
Defensive havoc
27th
Points per drive
69th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Texas2021OA -0.054 / -0.022similar: TD drive rate, takeaway rate, havoc rate3552Florida2021OA -0.001 / -0.027similar: passing offense, pass defense, run defense3533Boston College2023OA +0.059 / -0.056similar: rushing offense, offensive EPA, defensive success rate3504UL Monroe2019OA +0.013 / -0.120similar: offensive success rate, TD drive rate, rushing offense3455South Alabama2025OA +0.027 / -0.099similar: offensive EPA, defensive success rate, havoc rate344

2018 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Oklahoma14-63L+18.5L67O
2vs Air Force33-27W-8.0L61U
3vs Bethune-Cookman49-28W-41.0L--
4@ UCF36-56L+14.0L74.5O
5@ Middle Tennessee24-25L-2.5L63.5U
6vs Old Dominion52-33W-13.5W63.5O
8@ Marshall7-31L-2.5L59.5U
9vs Louisiana Tech13-21L-3.5L58.5U
10@ Florida International49-14W+2.0W59.5O
11vs Western Kentucky34-15W-17.5W59.5U
12@ North Texas38-41L+4.5W63.5O
13vs Charlotte24-27L-16.5L54.5U

Betting Profile

ATS Record
4-8
33.3%
O/U Record
5-6
45.5%
Straight Up
5-7
41.7%
Home ATS2-4
Away ATS2-4
Favorite ATS2-6
Underdog ATS2-2
Last 5 ATS
LWWWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off52thRush Off90thRed Zone Off48th3rd Down Off46thPass Def32thRush Def33thRed Zone Def11th3rd Down Def26th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.06777th+0.05025th
Red Zone+0.01248th+0.23411th
Third Down+0.03346th+0.16326th
No Garbage Time+0.04368th+0.03835th
First Half+0.05770th-0.02052th
Second Half+0.07977th+0.11616th
Early Downs+0.08086th+0.02336th
Passing Downs+0.00552th+0.09332th
Standard Downs+0.10090th+0.02833th
Goal to Go+0.26283th+0.29015th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 39.1%Rush 60.9%
Havoc/Game
12.3
Havoc Rate
16.8%
TO Margin
-0.6
Explosive/G
17.5
Yards/Game
478.8
Pts/Drive
2.38
3rd Down%
33.1%
3&Out%
19.3%

Team Statistics

2018 season totals across 12 games — Florida Atlantic vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatFlorida AtlanticOpponents
Scoring
Points373381
Points / Game31.131.8
First Downs
Total288276
Rushing156112
Passing115142
Penalty1722
Rushing
Attempts566484
Yards2,9022,232
Yards / Carry5.14.6
Yards / Game241.8186.0
Touchdowns3527
Passing
Attempts364379
Completions226241
Completion %62.1%63.6%
Yards2,8442,861
Yards / Attempt7.87.5
Touchdowns1422
Interceptions1511
Passer Rating132.17140.35
Total Offense
Plays930863
Yards5,7465,093
Yards / Play6.25.9
Yards / Game478.8424.4
Punt Returns
Returns1514
Yards69142
Average4.610.1
Touchdowns02
Kickoff Returns
Returns2838
Yards722599
Average25.815.8
Touchdowns10
Punting
Punts4661
Yards1,7742,559
Average38.642.0
Interception Returns
Returns1115
Yards47219
Touchdowns01
Fumbles
Fumbles169
Lost63
Penalties
Penalties7949
Yards770488
Yards / Game64.240.7
Time of Possession
Per Game29:2430:36
Third Downs
Attempts169165
Conversions5668
Conversion %33.1%41.2%
Fourth Downs
Attempts4420
Conversions248
Conversion %54.5%40.0%
Red Zone
Trips4847
Scores (TD + FG)4039
Score %83.3%83.0%
Touchdowns3135
TD %64.6%74.5%
Field Goals
Attempts1712
Made107
Pct58.8%58.3%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4247
Made3946
Pct92.9%97.9%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts85
Made21
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →