Fourth Down Data
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BC

Boston College

EaglesRun-Heavy
Atlantic Coast Conference7-6#107 (-4.60)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

21· DOverall
Offense
50· CRating
64· CPer play
69· CConsistency
85· BBig plays
Defense
10· FRating
19· DPer play
26· DConsistency
Situational
79· BRed-zone O
1· FRed-zone D
93· A3rd down O
45· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.059
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.056
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.044
Defensive EPA/play
+0.074
lower = better
Off Success Rate
47.7%
Def Success Rate
47.1%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
26.3%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
26.1%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.029
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.028
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.11

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.59
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.60
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.03
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.08
own return game
Return Defense
+0.12
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#107
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#96
market 11 higher
Recruiting Rank
#43
recruiting 64 spots higher
8 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Boston College ranks among all FBS teams in 2023 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
75th
Opp-adjusted defense
29th
Offensive EPA/play
64th
Defensive EPA/play
19th
Offensive success rate
67th
Explosiveness
86th
Defensive havoc
3th
Points per drive
47th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Oregon State2024OA +0.001 / -0.054similar: havoc rate, rushing offense, takeaway rate3552Florida Atlantic2018OA +0.003 / -0.016similar: rushing offense, offensive EPA, defensive success rate3503Louisiana2017OA -0.058 / -0.169similar: run defense, rushing offense, offensive EPA3484Liberty2025OA -0.029 / -0.097similar: TD drive rate, run defense, havoc rate3295UL Monroe2019OA +0.013 / -0.120similar: pass defense, passing offense, defensive EPA329

2023 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Northern Illinois24-27L-8.5L50.5O
2vs Holy Cross31-28W-9.0L56O
3vs Florida State29-31L+26.3W48O
4@ Louisville28-56L+14.0L54.75O
5vs Virginia27-24W-3.5L53.5U
6@ Army27-24W+3.0W49.75O
8@ Georgia Tech38-23W+4.5W58.5O
9vs UConn21-14W+2.5W51U
10@ Syracuse17-10W----
11vs Virginia Tech22-48L+3.0L46.5U
12@ Pittsburgh16-24L+8.5L47.5O
13vs Miami20-45L----
18vs SMU23-14W----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
5-8
38.5%
O/U Record
8-5
61.5%
Straight Up
7-6
53.8%
Home ATS2-6
Away ATS3-2
Favorite ATS0-4
Underdog ATS5-4
Last 5 ATS
WLLLW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off81thRush Off58thRed Zone Off80th3rd Down Off94thPass Def15thRush Def39thRed Zone Def1th3rd Down Def46th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.06673th+0.06324th
Red Zone+0.13080th+0.3721th
Third Down+0.48094th+0.18146th
No Garbage Time+0.04964th+0.07718th
First Half+0.02150th+0.1568th
Second Half+0.11186th-0.04064th
Early Downs-0.12713th-0.02744th
Passing Downs+0.18281th+0.15815th
Standard Downs+0.00658th+0.01439th
Goal to Go-0.15719th+0.4624th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 39.8%Rush 60.2%
Havoc/Game
8.2
Havoc Rate
13.0%
TO Margin
-0.2
Explosive/G
16.8
Yards/Game
381.2
Pts/Drive
2.11
3rd Down%
41.4%
3&Out%
15.2%

Team Statistics

2023 season totals across 13 games — Boston College vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatBoston CollegeOpponents
Scoring
Points323368
Points / Game24.828.3
First Downs
Total280247
Rushing161107
Passing98118
Penalty2122
Rushing
Attempts547462
Yards2,5842,443
Yards / Carry4.75.3
Yards / Game198.8187.9
Touchdowns2530
Passing
Attempts361334
Completions204194
Completion %56.5%58.1%
Yards2,3722,563
Yards / Attempt6.67.7
Touchdowns1519
Interceptions148
Passer Rating117.66136.52
Total Offense
Plays908796
Yards4,9565,006
Yards / Play5.56.3
Yards / Game381.2385.1
Punt Returns
Returns129
Yards11258
Average9.36.4
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns2035
Yards311657
Average15.618.8
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts5352
Yards2,0102,155
Average37.941.4
Interception Returns
Returns814
Yards4547
Touchdowns10
Fumbles
Fumbles1521
Lost59
Penalties
Penalties8579
Yards717640
Yards / Game55.249.2
Time of Possession
Per Game31:0828:32
Third Downs
Attempts191154
Conversions7964
Conversion %41.4%41.6%
Fourth Downs
Attempts3818
Conversions2913
Conversion %76.3%72.2%
Red Zone
Trips4243
Scores (TD + FG)3640
Score %85.7%93.0%
Touchdowns3135
TD %73.8%81.4%
Field Goals
Attempts1414
Made119
Pct78.6%64.3%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3948
Made3647
Pct92.3%97.9%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts30
Made10
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →