Fourth Down Data
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LIB

Liberty

FlamesRun-Heavy
Conference USA4-8#104 (-9.51)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

23· DOverall
Offense
36· DRating
51· CPer play
59· CConsistency
71· BBig plays
Defense
15· DRating
35· DPer play
18· DConsistency
Situational
70· BRed-zone O
27· DRed-zone D
41· C3rd down O
40· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.029
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.097
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.001
Defensive EPA/play
+0.019
lower = better
Off Success Rate
46.7%
Def Success Rate
48.4%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.3%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.4%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.019
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.158
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.19

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.36
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.19
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.28
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.01
own return game
Return Defense
+0.11
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#104
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#59
market 45 higher
Recruiting Rank
#79
recruiting 25 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Liberty ranks among all FBS teams in 2025 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
41th
Opp-adjusted defense
15th
Offensive EPA/play
51th
Defensive EPA/play
36th
Offensive success rate
56th
Explosiveness
72th
Defensive havoc
7th
Points per drive
45th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Bowling Green2017OA +0.025 / -0.172similar: turnover rate, run defense, havoc rate3372UCLA2018OA +0.036 / -0.086similar: run defense, rushing offense, defensive success rate3333Boston College2023OA +0.059 / -0.056similar: TD drive rate, run defense, havoc rate3294Northern Illinois2021OA +0.071 / -0.096similar: havoc rate, defensive success rate, run defense3275Tulsa2018OA -0.122 / -0.008similar: turnover rate, havoc rate, defensive EPA326

2025 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Maine28-7W-7.5W34.5O
2@ Jacksonville State24-34L-6.5L50.5O
3@ Bowling Green13-23L-2.0L37.5U
4vs James Madison13-31L+6.5L43.5O
5@ Old Dominion7-21L+14.5W53.5U
7@ UTEP19-8W-10.5L48.5O
8vs New Mexico State30-27W----
10vs Delaware59-30W-15.5W75.5O
11vs Missouri State17-21L-7.5L51.5U
12@ Florida International27-34L-2.5L51.5O
13@ Louisiana Tech28-34L-13.5L46.5O
14vs Kennesaw State42-48L+6.5W51.5O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
5-7
41.7%
O/U Record
8-4
66.7%
Straight Up
4-8
33.3%
Home ATS3-3
Away ATS2-4
Favorite ATS3-6
Underdog ATS2-1
Last 5 ATS
WLLLW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off59thRush Off41thRed Zone Off71th3rd Down Off41thPass Def18thRush Def48thRed Zone Def27th3rd Down Def40th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.00150th+0.03130th
Red Zone+0.09871th+0.09427th
Third Down+0.04541th+0.11540th
No Garbage Time+0.00150th+0.02931th
First Half-0.00944th-0.07272th
Second Half+0.00757th+0.1267th
Early Downs-0.02542th-0.02453th
Passing Downs+0.02759th+0.09818th
Standard Downs-0.01541th-0.00448th
Goal to Go+0.02356th+0.02545th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 38.3%Rush 61.7%
Havoc/Game
9.7
Havoc Rate
14.0%
TO Margin
-0.6
Explosive/G
16.2
Yards/Game
389.5
Pts/Drive
2.19
3rd Down%
40.7%
3&Out%
14.3%

Team Statistics

2025 season totals across 12 games — Liberty vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatLibertyOpponents
Scoring
Points307318
Points / Game25.626.5
First Downs
Total245242
Rushing122116
Passing106107
Penalty1719
Rushing
Attempts508455
Yards2,3282,149
Yards / Carry4.64.7
Yards / Game194.0179.1
Touchdowns2523
Passing
Attempts316350
Completions174203
Completion %55.1%58.0%
Yards2,3462,361
Yards / Attempt7.46.7
Touchdowns1117
Interceptions137
Passer Rating120.68126.69
Total Offense
Plays824805
Yards4,6744,510
Yards / Play5.75.6
Yards / Game389.5375.8
Punt Returns
Returns1211
Yards3680
Average3.07.3
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns2723
Yards577435
Average21.418.9
Touchdowns10
Punting
Punts4650
Yards1,9342,153
Average42.043.1
Interception Returns
Returns713
Yards13644
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles1210
Lost87
Penalties
Penalties7463
Yards667552
Yards / Game55.646.0
Time of Possession
Per Game30:3329:17
Third Downs
Attempts167171
Conversions6875
Conversion %40.7%43.9%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2523
Conversions1314
Conversion %52.0%60.9%
Red Zone
Trips4242
Scores (TD + FG)3636
Score %85.7%85.7%
Touchdowns2529
TD %59.5%69.0%
Field Goals
Attempts2219
Made1613
Pct72.7%68.4%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3535
Made3535
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts24
Made12
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →