Fourth Down Data
← All Teams
ORST

Oregon State

BeaversBalanced
Pac-12 Conference5-7#106 (-5.01)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

21· DOverall
Offense
45· CRating
54· CPer play
55· CConsistency
74· BBig plays
Defense
13· FRating
8· FPer play
7· FConsistency
Situational
76· BRed-zone O
76· BRed-zone D
52· C3rd down O
24· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.001
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.054
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.021
Defensive EPA/play
+0.126
lower = better
Off Success Rate
46.0%
Def Success Rate
49.6%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
25.0%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
27.3%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.105
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.113
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.39

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.39
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.29
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.65
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.07
own return game
Return Defense
+0.04
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#106
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#85
market 21 higher
Recruiting Rank
#63
recruiting 43 spots higher
3 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Oregon State ranks among all FBS teams in 2024 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
48th
Opp-adjusted defense
8th
Offensive EPA/play
54th
Defensive EPA/play
8th
Offensive success rate
49th
Explosiveness
75th
Defensive havoc
4th
Points per drive
63th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Louisiana2017OA -0.058 / -0.169similar: defensive EPA, takeaway rate, offensive success rate3842Toledo2019OA -0.001 / -0.123similar: defensive EPA, offensive EPA, run defense3643Boston College2023OA +0.059 / -0.056similar: havoc rate, rushing offense, takeaway rate3554South Florida2022OA +0.076 / -0.176similar: run defense, havoc rate, TD drive rate3505Arizona2019OA -0.007 / -0.040similar: havoc rate, run defense, offensive success rate342

2024 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Idaho State38-15W-27.5L54.5U
2@ San Diego State21-0W-4.5W56U
3vs Oregon14-49L+16.5L51O
4vs Purdue38-21W-4.5W50O
6vs Colorado State39-31W-11.5L47.5O
7@ Nevada37-42L-4.0L48.5O
8vs UNLV25-33L+7.5L61.5U
9@ California7-44L+9.5L49.25O
11vs San José State13-24L-2.5L55.5U
12@ Air Force0-28L-4.0L45U
13vs Washington State41-38W+19.0W57U
14@ Boise State18-34L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
4-8
33.3%
O/U Record
6-6
50.0%
Straight Up
5-7
41.7%
Home ATS2-5
Away ATS2-3
Favorite ATS2-5
Underdog ATS2-3
Last 5 ATS
LLLWW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off16thRush Off84thRed Zone Off77th3rd Down Off53thPass Def19thRush Def4thRed Zone Def77th3rd Down Def24th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.01451th+0.1227th
Red Zone+0.13177th-0.14977th
Third Down+0.12053th+0.20224th
No Garbage Time+0.02758th+0.1278th
First Half+0.08076th+0.11810th
Second Half-0.04424th+0.1269th
Early Downs+0.01664th+0.1352th
Passing Downs-0.16016th+0.12419th
Standard Downs+0.09784th+0.1214th
Goal to Go-0.35110th+0.22710th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 42.7%Rush 57.3%
Havoc/Game
8.4
Havoc Rate
13.3%
TO Margin
-0.3
Explosive/G
16.1
Yards/Game
390.6
Pts/Drive
2.39
3rd Down%
43.9%
3&Out%
13.2%

Team Statistics

2024 season totals across 12 games — Oregon State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatOregon StateOpponents
Scoring
Points291359
Points / Game24.329.9
First Downs
Total268249
Rushing133116
Passing110116
Penalty2517
Rushing
Attempts484419
Yards2,2702,230
Yards / Carry4.75.3
Yards / Game189.2185.8
Touchdowns2926
Passing
Attempts360317
Completions216190
Completion %60.0%59.9%
Yards2,4172,569
Yards / Attempt6.78.1
Touchdowns715
Interceptions115
Passer Rating116.70140.47
Total Offense
Plays844736
Yards4,6874,799
Yards / Play5.66.5
Yards / Game390.6399.9
Punt Returns
Returns816
Yards2790
Average3.45.6
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns196
Yards373113
Average19.618.8
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts3434
Yards1,5701,415
Average46.241.6
Interception Returns
Returns511
Yards88122
Touchdowns13
Fumbles
Fumbles1411
Lost57
Penalties
Penalties6162
Yards548594
Yards / Game45.749.5
Time of Possession
Per Game33:0926:51
Third Downs
Attempts173131
Conversions7659
Conversion %43.9%45.0%
Fourth Downs
Attempts4215
Conversions227
Conversion %52.4%46.7%
Red Zone
Trips4153
Scores (TD + FG)3343
Score %80.5%81.1%
Touchdowns2730
TD %65.9%56.6%
Field Goals
Attempts1519
Made1016
Pct66.7%84.2%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3339
Made3339
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts45
Made33
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →