Fourth Down Data
← All Teams
USF

South Florida

BullsBalanced
American Conference1-11#124 (-7.23)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

9· FOverall
Offense
60· CRating
69· CPer play
70· BConsistency
97· A+Big plays
Defense
1· FRating
1· FPer play
1· FConsistency
Situational
85· BRed-zone O
60· CRed-zone D
84· B3rd down O
9· F3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.076
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.176
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.049
Defensive EPA/play
+0.218
lower = better
Off Success Rate
48.2%
Def Success Rate
53.2%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
29.1%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
29.8%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.169
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.064
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.34

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.46
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.03
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.19
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.46
own return game
Return Defense
-0.16
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#124
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#117
market 7 higher
Recruiting Rank
#75
recruiting 49 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where South Florida ranks among all FBS teams in 2022 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
76th
Opp-adjusted defense
1th
Offensive EPA/play
70th
Defensive EPA/play
1th
Offensive success rate
68th
Explosiveness
98th
Defensive havoc
7th
Points per drive
60th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1UConn2018OA -0.006 / -0.392similar: defensive EPA, run defense, offensive EPA4132Louisiana2017OA -0.058 / -0.169similar: offensive EPA, TD drive rate, defensive success rate3693Oregon State2024OA +0.001 / -0.054similar: run defense, havoc rate, TD drive rate3504Navy2018OA -0.008 / -0.113similar: havoc rate, pass defense, defensive EPA3405West Virginia2024OA +0.027 / -0.079similar: defensive EPA, havoc rate, offensive success rate322

2022 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs BYU21-50L+12.0L58.5O
2vs Howard42-20W-39.5L60O
3@ Florida28-31L+24.0W58.5O
4@ Louisville3-41L+14.5L64.5U
5vs East Carolina28-48L+9.0L57O
6@ Cincinnati24-28L+27.0W58.5U
7vs Tulane31-45L+12.0L55O
9@ Houston27-42L+17.5W61O
10@ Temple28-54L-3.5L51O
11vs SMU23-41L+17.5L71.5U
12@ Tulsa42-48L----
13vs UCF39-46L+20.0W68.75O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
5-7
41.7%
O/U Record
9-3
75.0%
Straight Up
1-11
8.3%
Home ATS1-5
Away ATS4-2
Favorite ATS0-2
Underdog ATS5-5
Last 5 ATS
WLWLW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off68thRush Off79thRed Zone Off86th3rd Down Off84thPass Def6thRush Def1thRed Zone Def61th3rd Down Def9th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.07679th+0.1981th
Red Zone+0.15986th-0.10161th
Third Down+0.30884th+0.3829th
No Garbage Time+0.05972th+0.2271th
First Half+0.03661th+0.2911th
Second Half+0.11688th+0.08714th
Early Downs+0.04376th+0.1701th
Passing Downs+0.08668th+0.2386th
Standard Downs+0.07079th+0.1801th
Goal to Go-0.12632th+0.09927th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 42.4%Rush 57.6%
Havoc/Game
9.8
Havoc Rate
13.9%
TO Margin
-0.4
Explosive/G
15.7
Yards/Game
389.7
Pts/Drive
2.34
3rd Down%
39.1%
3&Out%
20.0%

Team Statistics

2022 season totals across 12 games — South Florida vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatSouth FloridaOpponents
Scoring
Points336494
Points / Game28.041.2
First Downs
Total234309
Rushing113134
Passing105159
Penalty1616
Rushing
Attempts442460
Yards2,3612,817
Yards / Carry5.36.1
Yards / Game196.8234.8
Touchdowns2537
Passing
Attempts326375
Completions188275
Completion %57.7%73.3%
Yards2,3153,384
Yards / Attempt7.19.0
Touchdowns1825
Interceptions96
Passer Rating130.02167.93
Total Offense
Plays768835
Yards4,6766,201
Yards / Play6.17.4
Yards / Game389.7516.8
Punt Returns
Returns128
Yards10077
Average8.39.6
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns5010
Yards994166
Average19.916.6
Touchdowns10
Punting
Punts4125
Yards1,6791,004
Average41.040.2
Interception Returns
Returns69
Yards4994
Touchdowns02
Fumbles
Fumbles1915
Lost119
Penalties
Penalties5563
Yards443548
Yards / Game36.945.7
Time of Possession
Per Game29:2830:32
Third Downs
Attempts151145
Conversions5973
Conversion %39.1%50.3%
Fourth Downs
Attempts3123
Conversions1414
Conversion %45.2%60.9%
Red Zone
Trips4762
Scores (TD + FG)4052
Score %85.1%83.9%
Touchdowns3238
TD %68.1%61.3%
Field Goals
Attempts1318
Made915
Pct69.2%83.3%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3762
Made3761
Pct100.0%98.4%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts72
Made41
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →