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NAVY
Navy
MidshipmenRun-HeavyAmerican Conference3-10#103 (-5.62)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
22· DOverall
Offense
50· CRating
48· CPer play
22· DConsistency
65· CBig plays
Defense
11· FRating
10· FPer play
16· DConsistency
Situational
98· A+Red-zone O
38· DRed-zone D
68· C3rd down O
8· F3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.008
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.113
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.002
Defensive EPA/play
+0.135
lower = better
Off Success Rate
43.8%
Def Success Rate
49.9%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.3%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
28.1%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.133
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.000
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.19
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-1.00
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.47
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.21
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.22
own return game
Return Defense
-0.09
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#103
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#77
recruiting 26 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Navy ranks among all FBS teams in 2018 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense41th
Opp-adjusted defense12th
Offensive EPA/play48th
Defensive EPA/play10th
Offensive success rate25th
Explosiveness66th
Defensive havoc3th
Points per drive49th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1UNLV2018OA -0.016 / -0.111similar: offensive EPA, pass defense, run defense3572South Florida2022OA +0.076 / -0.176similar: havoc rate, pass defense, defensive EPA3403Louisiana2017OA -0.058 / -0.169similar: defensive EPA, pass defense, turnover rate3334South Florida2021OA -0.052 / -0.142similar: havoc rate, defensive EPA, rushing offense3285Kansas2021OA -0.047 / -0.174similar: havoc rate, turnover rate, defensive EPA319
2018 Schedule & Results
13 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @ Hawai'i | 41-59 | L | -12.5 | L | 62.5 | O |
| 2 | vs Memphis | 22-21 | W | +7.0 | W | 67 | U |
| 3 | vs Lehigh | 51-21 | W | -33.0 | L | 57.5 | O |
| 4 | @ SMU | 30-31 | L | -6.5 | L | 57.5 | O |
| 6 | @ Air Force | 7-35 | L | -2.5 | L | 47 | U |
| 7 | vs Temple | 17-24 | L | +6.5 | L | 49 | U |
| 8 | vs Houston | 36-49 | L | +11.0 | L | 59.5 | O |
| 9 | vs Notre Dame | 22-44 | L | +21.5 | L | 55.5 | O |
| 10 | @ Cincinnati | 0-42 | L | +13.0 | L | 47 | U |
| 11 | @ UCF | 24-35 | L | +23.5 | W | 68 | U |
| 12 | vs Tulsa | 37-29 | W | -5.0 | W | 50.5 | O |
| 13 | @ Tulane | 28-29 | L | +5.0 | W | 51.5 | O |
| 15 | @ Army | 10-17 | L | +7.0 | P | 38.5 | U |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
4-8-1
33.3%
O/U Record
7-6
53.8%
Straight Up
3-10
23.1%
Home ATS2-4
Away ATS2-4
Favorite ATS1-4
Underdog ATS3-4
Last 5 ATS
LWWWP
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | +0.005 | 51th | +0.109 | 11th |
| Red Zone | +0.369 | 99th | +0.047 | 39th |
| Third Down | +0.131 | 69th | +0.332 | 8th |
| No Garbage Time | +0.019 | 54th | +0.127 | 11th |
| First Half | -0.029 | 37th | +0.151 | 11th |
| Second Half | +0.036 | 63th | +0.065 | 29th |
| Early Downs | -0.018 | 45th | +0.062 | 21th |
| Passing Downs | -0.032 | 37th | +0.129 | 17th |
| Standard Downs | +0.024 | 61th | +0.099 | 14th |
| Goal to Go | +0.103 | 55th | +0.099 | 47th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 14.9%Rush 85.1%
Havoc/Game
7.7
Havoc Rate
11.5%
TO Margin
+0.3
Explosive/G
13.5
Yards/Game
349.3
Pts/Drive
2.19
3rd Down%
38.0%
3&Out%
23.3%
Team Statistics
2018 season totals across 13 games — Navy vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Navy | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 325 | 436 |
| Points / Game | 25.0 | 33.5 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 233 | 270 |
| Rushing | 181 | 123 |
| Passing | 38 | 138 |
| Penalty | 14 | 9 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 731 | 490 |
| Yards | 3,594 | 2,490 |
| Yards / Carry | 4.9 | 5.1 |
| Yards / Game | 276.5 | 191.5 |
| Touchdowns | 37 | 33 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 128 | 360 |
| Completions | 54 | 245 |
| Completion % | 42.2% | 68.1% |
| Yards | 947 | 3,053 |
| Yards / Attempt | 7.4 | 8.5 |
| Touchdowns | 5 | 24 |
| Interceptions | 5 | 9 |
| Passer Rating | 109.41 | 156.29 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 859 | 850 |
| Yards | 4,541 | 5,543 |
| Yards / Play | 5.3 | 6.5 |
| Yards / Game | 349.3 | 426.4 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 14 | 25 |
| Yards | 106 | 235 |
| Average | 7.6 | 9.4 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 1 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 21 | 34 |
| Yards | 339 | 728 |
| Average | 16.1 | 21.4 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 1 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 54 | 41 |
| Yards | 2,207 | 1,660 |
| Average | 40.9 | 40.5 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 9 | 5 |
| Yards | 139 | 95 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 1 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 24 | 20 |
| Lost | 12 | 12 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 48 | 46 |
| Yards | 390 | 396 |
| Yards / Game | 30.0 | 30.5 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 33:22 | 26:38 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 184 | 159 |
| Conversions | 70 | 74 |
| Conversion % | 38.0% | 46.5% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 36 | 29 |
| Conversions | 22 | 21 |
| Conversion % | 61.1% | 72.4% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 38 | 52 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 36 | 42 |
| Score % | 94.7% | 80.8% |
| Touchdowns | 29 | 37 |
| TD % | 76.3% | 71.2% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 13 | 10 |
| Made | 11 | 5 |
| Pct | 84.6% | 50.0% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 35 | 58 |
| Made | 34 | 55 |
| Pct | 97.1% | 94.8% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 7 | 2 |
| Made | 2 | 2 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.