Fourth Down Data
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USF

South Florida

BullsBalanced
American Conference2-10#116 (-6.81)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

13· FOverall
Offense
24· DRating
33· DPer play
43· CConsistency
77· BBig plays
Defense
8· FRating
8· FPer play
3· FConsistency
Situational
48· CRed-zone O
49· CRed-zone D
15· D3rd down O
22· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.052
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.142
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.048
Defensive EPA/play
+0.149
lower = better
Off Success Rate
45.4%
Def Success Rate
51.8%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
25.7%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
27.1%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.197
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.024
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.85

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+1.50
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.15
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.83
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+1.22
own return game
Return Defense
-0.40
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#116
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#118
model 2 higher
Recruiting Rank
#72
recruiting 44 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where South Florida ranks among all FBS teams in 2021 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
29th
Opp-adjusted defense
7th
Offensive EPA/play
33th
Defensive EPA/play
8th
Offensive success rate
44th
Explosiveness
77th
Defensive havoc
2th
Points per drive
26th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Hawai'i2022OA -0.087 / -0.155similar: rushing offense, run defense, havoc rate3882Wyoming2026OA -0.017 / -0.034similar: run defense, defensive EPA, pass defense3743Texas State2021OA -0.092 / -0.137similar: offensive EPA, defensive success rate, TD drive rate3614Western Kentucky2026OA -0.011 / -0.038similar: defensive EPA, havoc rate, defensive success rate3575UCLA2018OA +0.036 / -0.086similar: offensive EPA, offensive success rate, run defense352

2021 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ NC State0-45L----
2vs Florida20-42L+29.5W55.5O
3vs Florida A&M38-17W-28.0L46.5O
4@ BYU27-35L+23.5W54O
5@ SMU17-41L+21.0L68.25U
7vs Tulsa31-32L+8.5W57.5O
8vs Temple34-14W+9.5L56.5U
9@ East Carolina14-29L----
10vs Houston42-54L+13.0W53O
11vs Cincinnati28-45L----
12@ Tulane14-45L+18.5W62U
13@ UCF13-17L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
7-5
58.3%
O/U Record
6-6
50.0%
Straight Up
2-10
16.7%
Home ATS5-1
Away ATS2-4
Favorite ATS1-1
Underdog ATS6-4
Last 5 ATS
LWWLW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off40thRush Off32thRed Zone Off48th3rd Down Off15thPass Def58thRush Def2thRed Zone Def50th3rd Down Def23th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.04335th+0.1208th
Red Zone-0.04148th-0.02350th
Third Down-0.14415th+0.22323th
No Garbage Time-0.04135th+0.1439th
First Half-0.14814th+0.1568th
Second Half+0.06780th+0.08215th
Early Downs-0.02544th+0.1602th
Passing Downs-0.04440th-0.02658th
Standard Downs-0.04232th+0.1872th
Goal to Go+0.12377th-0.20972th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 42.1%Rush 57.9%
Havoc/Game
8.4
Havoc Rate
12.1%
TO Margin
-0.3
Explosive/G
15.9
Yards/Game
350.9
Pts/Drive
1.85
3rd Down%
34.3%
3&Out%
23.1%

Team Statistics

2021 season totals across 12 games — South Florida vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatSouth FloridaOpponents
Scoring
Points278416
Points / Game23.234.7
First Downs
Total244284
Rushing120118
Passing107150
Penalty1716
Rushing
Attempts487429
Yards1,9022,487
Yards / Carry3.95.8
Yards / Game158.5207.3
Touchdowns2528
Passing
Attempts354380
Completions191250
Completion %54.0%65.8%
Yards2,3093,160
Yards / Attempt6.58.3
Touchdowns626
Interceptions1210
Passer Rating107.56152.96
Total Offense
Plays841809
Yards4,2115,647
Yards / Play5.07.0
Yards / Game350.9470.6
Punt Returns
Returns1012
Yards120132
Average12.011.0
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns3421
Yards803432
Average23.620.6
Touchdowns30
Punting
Punts5640
Yards2,1831,695
Average39.042.4
Interception Returns
Returns1012
Yards249136
Touchdowns11
Fumbles
Fumbles2013
Lost97
Penalties
Penalties6061
Yards548539
Yards / Game45.744.9
Time of Possession
Per Game30:2729:30
Third Downs
Attempts169148
Conversions5859
Conversion %34.3%39.9%
Fourth Downs
Attempts3022
Conversions1614
Conversion %53.3%63.6%
Red Zone
Trips4352
Scores (TD + FG)3343
Score %76.7%82.7%
Touchdowns2633
TD %60.5%63.5%
Field Goals
Attempts1318
Made1111
Pct84.6%61.1%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3552
Made3551
Pct100.0%98.1%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts03
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →