Fourth Down Data
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NMSU

New Mexico State

AggiesBalanced
Conference USA2-10#128 (-19.21)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

5· FOverall
Offense
26· DRating
32· DPer play
33· DConsistency
55· CBig plays
Defense
4· FRating
18· DPer play
1· FConsistency
Situational
24· DRed-zone O
28· DRed-zone D
14· F3rd down O
34· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.052
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.096
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.043
Defensive EPA/play
+0.093
lower = better
Off Success Rate
44.4%
Def Success Rate
51.1%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.1%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
25.1%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.136
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.174
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.76

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-1.27
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.35
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.62
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.06
own return game
Return Defense
-0.24
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#128
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#75
recruiting 53 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where New Mexico State ranks among all FBS teams in 2019 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
31th
Opp-adjusted defense
16th
Offensive EPA/play
32th
Defensive EPA/play
18th
Offensive success rate
31th
Explosiveness
55th
Defensive havoc
7th
Points per drive
23th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Hawai'i2022OA -0.087 / -0.155similar: defensive EPA, havoc rate, run defense3712Nebraska2017OA +0.058 / -0.086similar: defensive EPA, TD drive rate, run defense3663Western Kentucky2026OA -0.011 / -0.038similar: pass defense, defensive success rate, run defense3534South Florida2021OA -0.052 / -0.142similar: run defense, defensive success rate, offensive EPA3515San José State2017OA -0.187 / -0.129similar: havoc rate, takeaway rate, turnover rate340

2019 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Washington State7-58L+33.0L65.5U
2@ Alabama10-62L+54.5W65O
3vs San Diego State10-31L+16.5L51.5U
4@ New Mexico52-55L+4.0W69O
5vs Fresno State17-30L+20.0W63.5U
6vs Liberty13-20L+4.5L62.5U
7@ Central Michigan28-42L+10.0L56.5O
9@ Georgia Southern7-41L+13.5L53.5U
11@ Ole Miss3-41L+28.0L64.5U
12vs Incarnate Word41-28W-7.5W60O
13vs UTEP44-35W-8.0W56O
14@ Liberty28-49L+14.5L68O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
5-7
41.7%
O/U Record
6-6
50.0%
Straight Up
2-10
16.7%
Home ATS3-2
Away ATS2-5
Favorite ATS2-0
Underdog ATS3-7
Last 5 ATS
LLWWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off14thRush Off38thRed Zone Off25th3rd Down Off14thPass Def42thRush Def11thRed Zone Def28th3rd Down Def34th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.07423th+0.06924th
Red Zone-0.14925th+0.08428th
Third Down-0.16614th+0.10634th
No Garbage Time-0.05528th+0.08819th
First Half-0.10018th+0.12113th
Second Half-0.04533th+0.01843th
Early Downs-0.06423th+0.06417th
Passing Downs-0.16614th+0.03242th
Standard Downs-0.01938th+0.08811th
Goal to Go-0.14135th+0.16720th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 53.6%Rush 46.4%
Havoc/Game
10.5
Havoc Rate
13.9%
TO Margin
-1.3
Explosive/G
14.2
Yards/Game
361.1
Pts/Drive
1.76
3rd Down%
32.2%
3&Out%
26.7%

Team Statistics

2019 season totals across 12 games — New Mexico State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatNew Mexico StateOpponents
Scoring
Points260492
Points / Game21.741.0
First Downs
Total228283
Rushing93147
Passing117120
Penalty1816
Rushing
Attempts386513
Yards1,7223,110
Yards / Carry4.56.1
Yards / Game143.5259.2
Touchdowns1635
Passing
Attempts446362
Completions278220
Completion %62.3%60.8%
Yards2,6112,649
Yards / Attempt5.97.3
Touchdowns1521
Interceptions155
Passer Rating115.88138.62
Total Offense
Plays832875
Yards4,3335,759
Yards / Play5.26.6
Yards / Game361.1479.9
Punt Returns
Returns1921
Yards196199
Average10.39.5
Touchdowns11
Kickoff Returns
Returns2816
Yards378416
Average13.526.0
Touchdowns01
Punting
Punts6647
Yards2,7732,005
Average42.042.7
Interception Returns
Returns515
Yards18271
Touchdowns03
Fumbles
Fumbles2214
Lost127
Penalties
Penalties6865
Yards556572
Yards / Game46.347.7
Time of Possession
Per Game27:1332:47
Third Downs
Attempts171164
Conversions5574
Conversion %32.2%45.1%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2611
Conversions168
Conversion %61.5%72.7%
Red Zone
Trips4054
Scores (TD + FG)2849
Score %70.0%90.7%
Touchdowns2238
TD %55.0%70.4%
Field Goals
Attempts1627
Made1023
Pct62.5%85.2%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3256
Made3255
Pct100.0%98.2%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts14
Made01
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →