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NIU
Northern Illinois
HuskiesBalancedMountain West Conference0-1#127 (-9.86)
Early-season ratings are provisional. Opponent adjustment relies on a thin schedule graph until teams are connected through more games; expect movement through late September.
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
8· FOverall
Offense
12· FRating
0· FPer play
0· FConsistency
0· FBig plays
Defense
17· DRating
20· DPer play
7· FConsistency
Situational
65· CRed-zone D
1· F3rd down O
46· C3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.089
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.010
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.785
Defensive EPA/play
+0.119
lower = better
Off Success Rate
23.6%
Def Success Rate
46.2%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
0.0%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.3%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.904
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
0.000
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
0.00
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-1.45
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.48
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.03
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.13
own return game
Return Defense
-0.88
vs opponent returns
Peer Context
Where Northern Illinois ranks among all FBS teams in 2026 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense4th
Opp-adjusted defense45th
Offensive EPA/play0th
Defensive EPA/play20th
Offensive success rate1th
Explosiveness0th
Defensive havoc15th
Points per drive1th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1San José State2017OA -0.187 / -0.129similar: defensive EPA, rushing offense, offensive EPA4592Missouri State2026OA -0.099 / +0.017similar: turnover rate, offensive success rate, passing offense4423Kansas2020OA -0.097 / -0.019similar: pass defense, offensive EPA, havoc rate4374UConn2021OA -0.200 / -0.127similar: offensive success rate, defensive EPA, passing offense4315Rutgers2018OA -0.171 / -0.005similar: offensive EPA, passing offense, TD drive rate412
2026 Schedule & Results
12 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @ Iowa | 0-40 | L | +31.5 | L | 44.5 | U |
| 2 | vs Illinois State | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 3 | @ Arizona | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 4 | @ Georgia State | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 6 | vs Air Force | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 7 | @ Wyoming | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 8 | vs Hawai'i | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 9 | @ UNLV | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 10 | @ San José State | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 11 | vs Nevada | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 12 | @ North Dakota State | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 13 | vs UTEP | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
0-1
0.0%
O/U Record
0-1
0.0%
Straight Up
0-1
0.0%
Home ATS0-0
Away ATS0-1
Favorite ATS0-0
Underdog ATS0-1
Last 5 ATS
L
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.487 | 1th | -0.150 | 60th |
| Red Zone | - | 0th | -0.345 | 66th |
| Third Down | -1.189 | 1th | -0.048 | 46th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.757 | 1th | +0.067 | 26th |
| First Half | -0.757 | 1th | +0.067 | 28th |
| Second Half | -0.320 | 8th | -0.537 | 96th |
| Early Downs | -0.360 | 3th | +0.051 | 25th |
| Passing Downs | -0.377 | 11th | -0.182 | 62th |
| Standard Downs | -0.571 | 0th | -0.134 | 58th |
| Goal to Go | - | 0th | -0.384 | 80th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 43.6%Rush 56.4%
Havoc/Game
9.0
Havoc Rate
10.7%
TO Margin
-1.0
Explosive/G
0.0
Yards/Game
120.0
Pts/Drive
0.00
3rd Down%
20.0%
3&Out%
83.3%
Team Statistics
2026 season totals across 1 games — Northern Illinois vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Northern Illinois | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 0 | 40 |
| Points / Game | 0.0 | 40.0 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 7 | 26 |
| Rushing | 1 | 13 |
| Passing | 5 | 11 |
| Penalty | 1 | 2 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 31 | 38 |
| Yards | 7 | 289 |
| Yards / Carry | 0.2 | 7.6 |
| Yards / Game | 7.0 | 289.0 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 2 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 24 | 40 |
| Completions | 13 | 21 |
| Completion % | 54.2% | 52.5% |
| Yards | 113 | 218 |
| Yards / Attempt | 4.7 | 5.5 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 2 |
| Interceptions | 1 | 1 |
| Passer Rating | 85.38 | 109.78 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 55 | 78 |
| Yards | 120 | 507 |
| Yards / Play | 2.2 | 6.5 |
| Yards / Game | 120.0 | 507.0 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 0 | 5 |
| Yards | 0 | 124 |
| Average | — | 24.8 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 1 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 3 | 0 |
| Yards | 35 | 0 |
| Average | 11.7 | — |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 11 | 3 |
| Yards | 460 | 131 |
| Average | 41.8 | 43.7 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 1 | 1 |
| Yards | 0 | 17 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 1 | 0 |
| Lost | 1 | 0 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 7 | 7 |
| Yards | 61 | 60 |
| Yards / Game | 61.0 | 60.0 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 26:09 | 33:51 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 15 | 14 |
| Conversions | 3 | 6 |
| Conversion % | 20.0% | 42.9% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 0 | 3 |
| Conversions | 0 | 0 |
| Conversion % | — | 0.0% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 0 | 5 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 0 | 3 |
| Score % | — | 60.0% |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 2 |
| TD % | — | 40.0% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 0 | 3 |
| Made | 0 | 2 |
| Pct | — | 66.7% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 0 | 5 |
| Made | 0 | 4 |
| Pct | — | 80.0% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 0 | 0 |
| Made | 0 | 0 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.