Fourth Down Data
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NDSU

North Dakota State

BisonRun-Heavy
Mountain West Conference2-0#22 (+6.85)
Early-season ratings are provisional. Opponent adjustment relies on a thin schedule graph until teams are connected through more games; expect movement through late September.

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

84· BOverall
Offense
53· CRating
57· CPer play
67· CConsistency
28· DBig plays
Defense
98· A+Rating
88· BPer play
65· CConsistency
Situational
31· DRed-zone O
92· A-Red-zone D
39· D3rd down O
87· B3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.006
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.141
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.108
Defensive EPA/play
-0.495
lower = better
Off Success Rate
50.7%
Def Success Rate
38.2%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
20.2%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
26.2%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.603
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.001
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
3.62

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.18
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.20
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.26
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.20
own return game
Return Defense
+0.08
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#22
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
model 4 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
—
no recruiting profile

Peer Context

Where North Dakota State ranks among all FBS teams in 2026 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
40th
Opp-adjusted defense
100th
Offensive EPA/play
58th
Defensive EPA/play
89th
Offensive success rate
61th
Explosiveness
28th
Defensive havoc
61th
Points per drive
64th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Baylor2019OA +0.062 / +0.147similar: offensive EPA, defensive success rate, defensive EPA3442Middle Tennessee2018OA +0.025 / +0.049similar: run defense, passing offense, offensive EPA3403Indiana2020OA -0.011 / +0.044similar: TD drive rate, takeaway rate, defensive EPA3344Troy2022OA +0.038 / +0.141similar: havoc rate, pass defense, defensive success rate3325Buffalo2022OA -0.062 / +0.019similar: rushing offense, takeaway rate, run defense328

2026 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
0vs Jacksonville State33-7W-6.5W46.5U
1vs Fordham38-0W-41.5L54.5U
2@ Air Force------
3@ Sacramento State------
5vs Wyoming------
6@ UNLV------
7vs Nevada------
8@ New Mexico------
9vs UTEP------
11@ Hawai'i------
12vs Northern Illinois------
13@ San José State------

Betting Profile

ATS Record
1-1
50.0%
O/U Record
0-2
0.0%
Straight Up
2-0
100.0%
Home ATS1-1
Away ATS0-0
Favorite ATS1-1
Underdog ATS0-0
Last 5 ATS
WL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off61thRush Off43thRed Zone Off32th3rd Down Off39thPass Def99thRush Def53thRed Zone Def93th3rd Down Def88th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.05850th-0.40694th
Red Zone-0.14832th-0.99293th
Third Down-0.03639th-0.73588th
No Garbage Time+0.10861th-0.49591th
First Half+0.12859th-0.28777th
Second Half-0.04342th-0.50195th
Early Downs+0.03150th-0.12858th
Passing Downs+0.21561th-0.88399th
Standard Downs-0.00143th-0.11153th
Goal to Go+0.54471th+2.0364th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 36.0%Rush 64.0%
Havoc/Game
12.0
Havoc Rate
22.4%
TO Margin
+2.5
Explosive/G
10.0
Yards/Game
373.0
Pts/Drive
3.62
3rd Down%
42.9%
3&Out%
15.4%

Team Statistics

2026 season totals across 2 games — North Dakota State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatNorth Dakota StateOpponents
Scoring
Points717
Points / Game35.53.5
First Downs
Total4223
Rushing1711
Passing208
Penalty54
Rushing
Attempts8757
Yards337104
Yards / Carry3.91.8
Yards / Game168.552.0
Touchdowns21
Passing
Attempts4945
Completions3624
Completion %73.5%53.3%
Yards409201
Yards / Attempt8.34.5
Touchdowns40
Interceptions14
Passer Rating166.4473.08
Total Offense
Plays136102
Yards746305
Yards / Play5.53.0
Yards / Game373.0152.5
Punt Returns
Returns41
Yards262
Average6.52.0
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns24
Yards5863
Average29.015.8
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts310
Yards106446
Average35.344.6
Interception Returns
Returns41
Yards850
Touchdowns10
Fumbles
Fumbles06
Lost02
Penalties
Penalties1715
Yards139118
Yards / Game69.559.0
Time of Possession
Per Game34:4725:13
Third Downs
Attempts2822
Conversions126
Conversion %42.9%27.3%
Fourth Downs
Attempts63
Conversions52
Conversion %83.3%66.7%
Red Zone
Trips83
Scores (TD + FG)71
Score %87.5%33.3%
Touchdowns51
TD %62.5%33.3%
Field Goals
Attempts61
Made50
Pct83.3%0.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts81
Made81
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts00
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →