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NCSU
NC State
WolfpackBalancedAtlantic Coast Conference9-4#29 (+5.14)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
78· BOverall
Offense
44· CRating
15· DPer play
32· DConsistency
12· FBig plays
Defense
89· BRating
90· A-Per play
88· BConsistency
Situational
55· CRed-zone O
59· CRed-zone D
43· C3rd down O
99· A+3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.033
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.114
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.084
Defensive EPA/play
-0.115
lower = better
Off Success Rate
44.6%
Def Success Rate
43.0%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
20.9%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.2%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.032
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.174
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.92
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
+1.11
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.42
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.62
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.10
own return game
Return Defense
-0.03
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#29
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#21
AP 8 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
#48
model 19 higher
Recruiting Rank
#35
model 6 spots higher
12 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where NC State ranks among all FBS teams in 2023 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense30th
Opp-adjusted defense92th
Offensive EPA/play15th
Defensive EPA/play91th
Offensive success rate31th
Explosiveness13th
Defensive havoc84th
Points per drive37th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Auburn2019OA -0.022 / +0.217similar: defensive EPA, pass defense, havoc rate4022Virginia Tech2024OA +0.002 / +0.048similar: run defense, takeaway rate, turnover rate4003Sam Houston2024OA -0.024 / +0.065similar: turnover rate, passing offense, offensive success rate3964Clemson2021OA -0.044 / +0.202similar: TD drive rate, offensive EPA, defensive EPA3965Marshall2022OA -0.104 / +0.202similar: rushing offense, takeaway rate, offensive success rate373
2023 Schedule & Results
13 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @ UConn | 24-14 | W | - | - | - | - |
| 2 | vs Notre Dame | 24-45 | L | +8.0 | L | 50 | O |
| 3 | vs VMI | 45-7 | W | -54.5 | L | 61.5 | U |
| 4 | @ Virginia | 24-21 | W | +3.5 | W | 55.5 | U |
| 5 | vs Louisville | 10-13 | L | - | - | - | - |
| 6 | vs Marshall | 48-41 | W | -6.5 | W | 44.5 | O |
| 7 | @ Duke | 3-24 | L | +3.5 | L | 46.5 | U |
| 9 | vs Clemson | 24-17 | W | +10.0 | W | 43.75 | U |
| 10 | vs Miami | 20-6 | W | +4.0 | W | 45 | U |
| 11 | @ Wake Forest | 26-6 | W | -2.5 | W | 44 | U |
| 12 | @ Virginia Tech | 35-28 | W | +2.5 | W | 44 | O |
| 13 | vs North Carolina | 39-20 | W | +3.0 | W | 55 | O |
| 18 | @ Kansas State | 19-28 | L | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
7-6
53.8%
O/U Record
4-9
30.8%
Straight Up
9-4
69.2%
Home ATS5-2
Away ATS2-4
Favorite ATS2-3
Underdog ATS5-3
Last 5 ATS
WWWWL
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.073 | 18th | -0.071 | 84th |
| Red Zone | +0.023 | 55th | -0.055 | 60th |
| Third Down | +0.165 | 44th | -0.236 | 100th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.075 | 19th | -0.092 | 90th |
| First Half | -0.032 | 33th | -0.124 | 92th |
| Second Half | -0.118 | 13th | -0.021 | 53th |
| Early Downs | -0.105 | 21th | -0.094 | 79th |
| Passing Downs | -0.114 | 13th | -0.032 | 80th |
| Standard Downs | -0.049 | 33th | -0.094 | 81th |
| Goal to Go | -0.095 | 28th | -0.314 | 87th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 44.2%Rush 55.8%
Havoc/Game
13.7
Havoc Rate
21.6%
TO Margin
+0.7
Explosive/G
13.1
Yards/Game
350.4
Pts/Drive
1.92
3rd Down%
40.1%
3&Out%
25.2%
Team Statistics
2023 season totals across 13 games — NC State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | NC State | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 341 | 270 |
| Points / Game | 26.2 | 20.8 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 241 | 221 |
| Rushing | 103 | 78 |
| Passing | 116 | 124 |
| Penalty | 22 | 19 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 478 | 379 |
| Yards | 2,034 | 1,514 |
| Yards / Carry | 4.3 | 4.0 |
| Yards / Game | 156.5 | 116.5 |
| Touchdowns | 19 | 13 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 379 | 421 |
| Completions | 224 | 238 |
| Completion % | 59.1% | 56.5% |
| Yards | 2,521 | 2,803 |
| Yards / Attempt | 6.7 | 6.7 |
| Touchdowns | 19 | 20 |
| Interceptions | 12 | 17 |
| Passer Rating | 125.19 | 120.06 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 857 | 800 |
| Yards | 4,555 | 4,317 |
| Yards / Play | 5.3 | 5.4 |
| Yards / Game | 350.4 | 332.1 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 17 | 16 |
| Yards | 171 | 121 |
| Average | 10.1 | 7.6 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 24 | 17 |
| Yards | 537 | 415 |
| Average | 22.4 | 24.4 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 71 | 77 |
| Yards | 3,022 | 3,163 |
| Average | 42.6 | 41.1 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 17 | 12 |
| Yards | 178 | 88 |
| Touchdowns | 2 | 1 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 10 | 13 |
| Lost | 3 | 7 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 75 | 81 |
| Yards | 602 | 743 |
| Yards / Game | 46.3 | 57.2 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 32:27 | 27:22 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 187 | 169 |
| Conversions | 75 | 47 |
| Conversion % | 40.1% | 27.8% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 15 | 21 |
| Conversions | 9 | 12 |
| Conversion % | 60.0% | 57.1% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 46 | 34 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 38 | 28 |
| Score % | 82.6% | 82.4% |
| Touchdowns | 28 | 21 |
| TD % | 60.9% | 61.8% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 23 | 16 |
| Made | 18 | 11 |
| Pct | 78.3% | 68.8% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 39 | 31 |
| Made | 39 | 31 |
| Pct | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 2 | 4 |
| Made | 0 | 1 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.