Fourth Down Data
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VT

Virginia Tech

HokiesRun-Heavy
Atlantic Coast Conference6-7#24 (+6.09)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

82· BOverall
Offense
61· CRating
36· DPer play
29· DConsistency
19· DBig plays
Defense
86· BRating
78· BPer play
56· CConsistency
Situational
70· BRed-zone O
72· BRed-zone D
62· C3rd down O
59· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.002
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.048
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.017
Defensive EPA/play
-0.087
lower = better
Off Success Rate
43.6%
Def Success Rate
45.0%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
21.9%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
22.9%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.070
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.056
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.11

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+1.03
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.83
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.07
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.03
own return game
Return Defense
+0.09
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#24
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
model 2 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
#44
model 20 higher
Recruiting Rank
#41
model 17 spots higher
10 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Virginia Tech ranks among all FBS teams in 2024 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
51th
Opp-adjusted defense
88th
Offensive EPA/play
37th
Defensive EPA/play
78th
Offensive success rate
25th
Explosiveness
19th
Defensive havoc
73th
Points per drive
39th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Wyoming2019OA -0.056 / +0.057similar: offensive EPA, offensive success rate, TD drive rate4162Cincinnati2019OA +0.024 / +0.099similar: run defense, havoc rate, defensive EPA4063Auburn2019OA -0.022 / +0.217similar: offensive EPA, rushing offense, havoc rate4014NC State2023OA -0.033 / +0.114similar: run defense, takeaway rate, turnover rate4005Sam Houston2024OA -0.024 / +0.065similar: offensive success rate, defensive success rate, takeaway rate390

2024 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Vanderbilt27-34L-13.5L48O
2vs Marshall31-14W-17.0P47.75U
3@ Old Dominion37-17W-14.5W48O
4vs Rutgers23-26L-3.5L44.5O
5@ Miami34-38L----
6@ Stanford31-7W-8.0W49.5U
8vs Boston College42-21W----
9vs Georgia Tech21-6W-10.5W51.75U
10@ Syracuse31-38L-4.0L53.5O
11vs Clemson14-24L+6.5L52.5U
13@ Duke28-31L-3.5L47.5O
14vs Virginia37-17W-7.5W48.5O
19vs Minnesota10-24L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
6-6-1
50.0%
O/U Record
8-5
61.5%
Straight Up
6-7
46.2%
Home ATS3-3
Away ATS3-3
Favorite ATS5-4
Underdog ATS1-2
Last 5 ATS
LLLWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off38thRush Off39thRed Zone Off71th3rd Down Off63thPass Def74thRush Def71thRed Zone Def73th3rd Down Def60th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.02333th-0.07378th
Red Zone+0.09671th-0.13773th
Third Down+0.15563th+0.04560th
No Garbage Time-0.01639th-0.08479th
First Half-0.01341th-0.12688th
Second Half-0.03426th-0.02360th
Early Downs-0.02544th-0.08674th
Passing Downs-0.01338th-0.08774th
Standard Downs-0.02939th-0.06471th
Goal to Go-0.04838th-0.61499th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 40.8%Rush 59.2%
Havoc/Game
15.0
Havoc Rate
21.1%
TO Margin
+0.6
Explosive/G
13.7
Yards/Game
367.8
Pts/Drive
2.11
3rd Down%
36.5%
3&Out%
21.5%

Team Statistics

2024 season totals across 13 games — Virginia Tech vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatVirginia TechOpponents
Scoring
Points366297
Points / Game28.222.8
First Downs
Total241246
Rushing115107
Passing101120
Penalty2519
Rushing
Attempts492488
Yards2,3191,912
Yards / Carry4.73.9
Yards / Game178.4147.1
Touchdowns2817
Passing
Attempts339400
Completions200219
Completion %59.0%54.8%
Yards2,4622,807
Yards / Attempt7.37.0
Touchdowns1520
Interceptions915
Passer Rating129.29122.70
Total Offense
Plays831888
Yards4,7814,719
Yards / Play5.85.3
Yards / Game367.8363.0
Punt Returns
Returns2822
Yards282142
Average10.16.5
Touchdowns10
Kickoff Returns
Returns2220
Yards445378
Average20.218.9
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts6164
Yards2,6782,751
Average43.943.0
Interception Returns
Returns159
Yards20687
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles2223
Lost810
Penalties
Penalties7478
Yards635706
Yards / Game48.854.3
Time of Possession
Per Game29:1230:48
Third Downs
Attempts178188
Conversions6574
Conversion %36.5%39.4%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2125
Conversions811
Conversion %38.1%44.0%
Red Zone
Trips4649
Scores (TD + FG)3735
Score %80.4%71.4%
Touchdowns2827
TD %60.9%55.1%
Field Goals
Attempts1919
Made1612
Pct84.2%63.2%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4234
Made4233
Pct100.0%97.1%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts33
Made32
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →