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AUB
Auburn
TigersRun-HeavySoutheastern Conference9-4#7 (+22.33)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
95· AOverall
Offense
72· BRating
38· DPer play
35· DConsistency
16· DBig plays
Defense
98· A+Rating
89· BPer play
81· BConsistency
Situational
83· BRed-zone O
94· ARed-zone D
32· D3rd down O
97· A+3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.022
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.217
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.018
Defensive EPA/play
-0.127
lower = better
Off Success Rate
46.1%
Def Success Rate
40.9%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
21.3%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
21.7%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.108
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.032
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.25
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
+0.88
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.28
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.63
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.04
own return game
Return Defense
+0.01
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#7
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#14
model 7 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#14
model 7 spots higher
44 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Auburn ranks among all FBS teams in 2019 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense42th
Opp-adjusted defense99th
Offensive EPA/play39th
Defensive EPA/play90th
Offensive success rate49th
Explosiveness16th
Defensive havoc79th
Points per drive55th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Northwestern2017OA -0.036 / +0.113similar: pass defense, defensive success rate, takeaway rate4552Cincinnati2019OA +0.024 / +0.099similar: TD drive rate, havoc rate, pass defense4333Louisville2025OA +0.020 / +0.123similar: turnover rate, offensive success rate, defensive EPA4264Clemson2022OA +0.026 / +0.116similar: passing offense, run defense, defensive EPA4255Baylor2019OA +0.062 / +0.147similar: run defense, defensive EPA, havoc rate412
2019 Schedule & Results
13 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Oregon | 27-21 | W | -7.0 | L | 54 | O |
| 2 | vs Tulane | 24-6 | W | -15.0 | W | 51.5 | U |
| 3 | vs Kent State | 55-16 | W | -36.0 | W | 54.5 | O |
| 4 | @ Texas A&M | 28-20 | W | +4.0 | W | 48.5 | U |
| 5 | vs Mississippi State | 56-23 | W | -7.5 | W | 47 | O |
| 6 | @ Florida | 13-24 | L | -2.5 | L | 48.5 | U |
| 8 | @ Arkansas | 51-10 | W | -20.5 | W | 56 | O |
| 9 | @ LSU | 20-23 | L | +11.5 | W | 59.5 | U |
| 10 | vs Ole Miss | 20-14 | W | -18.0 | L | 53 | U |
| 12 | vs Georgia | 14-21 | L | +3.0 | L | 42.5 | U |
| 13 | vs Samford | 52-0 | W | -45.5 | W | 64 | U |
| 14 | vs Alabama | 48-45 | W | +4.0 | W | 50 | O |
| 19 | vs Minnesota | 24-31 | L | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
8-4
66.7%
O/U Record
5-7
41.7%
Straight Up
8-4
66.7%
Home ATS5-3
Away ATS3-1
Favorite ATS5-3
Underdog ATS3-1
Last 5 ATS
WLLWW
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.006 | 43th | -0.113 | 89th |
| Red Zone | +0.178 | 84th | -0.341 | 95th |
| Third Down | -0.040 | 32th | -0.296 | 98th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.034 | 34th | -0.126 | 89th |
| First Half | -0.060 | 29th | -0.159 | 93th |
| Second Half | +0.047 | 67th | -0.061 | 75th |
| Early Downs | +0.036 | 67th | -0.054 | 73th |
| Passing Downs | -0.050 | 34th | -0.106 | 82th |
| Standard Downs | +0.017 | 58th | -0.117 | 88th |
| Goal to Go | +0.273 | 86th | -0.843 | 97th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 41.9%Rush 58.1%
Havoc/Game
15.1
Havoc Rate
21.2%
TO Margin
+0.5
Explosive/G
13.6
Yards/Game
406.5
Pts/Drive
2.25
3rd Down%
40.5%
3&Out%
22.9%
Team Statistics
2019 season totals across 13 games — Auburn vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Auburn | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 432 | 254 |
| Points / Game | 33.2 | 19.5 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 279 | 249 |
| Rushing | 135 | 96 |
| Passing | 123 | 120 |
| Penalty | 21 | 33 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 550 | 452 |
| Yards | 2,588 | 1,601 |
| Yards / Carry | 4.7 | 3.5 |
| Yards / Game | 199.1 | 123.2 |
| Touchdowns | 31 | 10 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 397 | 453 |
| Completions | 229 | 264 |
| Completion % | 57.7% | 58.3% |
| Yards | 2,697 | 2,780 |
| Yards / Attempt | 6.8 | 6.1 |
| Touchdowns | 20 | 21 |
| Interceptions | 6 | 10 |
| Passer Rating | 128.35 | 120.71 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 947 | 905 |
| Yards | 5,285 | 4,381 |
| Yards / Play | 5.6 | 4.8 |
| Yards / Game | 406.5 | 337.0 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 24 | 14 |
| Yards | 308 | 242 |
| Average | 12.8 | 17.3 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 22 | 20 |
| Yards | 451 | 446 |
| Average | 20.5 | 22.3 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 1 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 64 | 85 |
| Yards | 2,786 | 3,799 |
| Average | 43.5 | 44.7 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 10 | 6 |
| Yards | 238 | 45 |
| Touchdowns | 2 | 0 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 25 | 23 |
| Lost | 11 | 13 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 92 | 92 |
| Yards | 718 | 761 |
| Yards / Game | 55.2 | 58.5 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 29:38 | 30:22 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 190 | 194 |
| Conversions | 77 | 58 |
| Conversion % | 40.5% | 29.9% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 15 | 25 |
| Conversions | 7 | 10 |
| Conversion % | 46.7% | 40.0% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 52 | 39 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 47 | 28 |
| Score % | 90.4% | 71.8% |
| Touchdowns | 37 | 21 |
| TD % | 71.2% | 53.8% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 25 | 18 |
| Made | 18 | 11 |
| Pct | 72.0% | 61.1% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 53 | 31 |
| Made | 52 | 29 |
| Pct | 98.1% | 93.5% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 1 | 1 |
| Made | 1 | 0 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.