Fourth Down Data
← All Teams
SHSU

Sam Houston

BearkatsRun-Heavy
Conference USA10-3#79 (-1.27)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

41· COverall
Offense
18· DRating
26· DPer play
27· DConsistency
23· DBig plays
Defense
81· BRating
98· A+Per play
78· BConsistency
Situational
41· CRed-zone O
61· CRed-zone D
54· C3rd down O
74· B3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.024
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.065
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.054
Defensive EPA/play
-0.166
lower = better
Off Success Rate
43.7%
Def Success Rate
44.5%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
22.3%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
19.6%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.112
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.058
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.80

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-2.19
expected pts/game
Kicking
-1.38
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.82
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.06
own return game
Return Defense
+0.06
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#79
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#73
market 6 higher
Recruiting Rank
#80
model 1 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Sam Houston ranks among all FBS teams in 2024 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
25th
Opp-adjusted defense
97th
Offensive EPA/play
26th
Defensive EPA/play
99th
Offensive success rate
28th
Explosiveness
23th
Defensive havoc
55th
Points per drive
19th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1NC State2023OA -0.033 / +0.114similar: turnover rate, passing offense, offensive success rate3962Virginia Tech2024OA +0.002 / +0.048similar: offensive success rate, defensive success rate, takeaway rate3903Iowa2024OA -0.019 / +0.053similar: offensive EPA, takeaway rate, pass defense3814Northwestern2020OA -0.022 / +0.067similar: pass defense, offensive EPA, offensive success rate3775Western Michigan2026OA -0.027 / +0.056similar: offensive success rate, passing offense, takeaway rate375

2024 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Rice34-14W+10.0W49.5U
2@ UCF14-45L+23.5L58O
3vs Hawai'i31-13W-4.5W50U
4vs New Mexico State31-11W-16.5W44.5U
5vs Texas State40-39W-10.5W50O
6@ UTEP41-21W----
8vs Western Kentucky14-31L-5.0L46.5U
9@ Florida International10-7W-10.0L45.5U
10vs Louisiana Tech9-3W----
12@ Kennesaw State23-17W-14.5L42.5U
13@ Jacksonville State11-21L+6.0L56U
14vs Liberty20-18W----
17vs Georgia Southern31-26W----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
7-6
53.8%
O/U Record
4-9
30.8%
Straight Up
10-3
76.9%
Home ATS5-2
Away ATS2-4
Favorite ATS3-4
Underdog ATS4-2
Last 5 ATS
LLWLW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off20thRush Off36thRed Zone Off41th3rd Down Off54thPass Def90thRush Def90thRed Zone Def61th3rd Down Def75th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.05522th-0.13696th
Red Zone-0.04141th-0.06061th
Third Down+0.12454th-0.00675th
No Garbage Time-0.05425th-0.16699th
First Half-0.08923th-0.20297th
Second Half-0.02135th-0.05975th
Early Downs-0.07620th-0.14794th
Passing Downs-0.10120th-0.17390th
Standard Downs-0.03136th-0.11790th
Goal to Go-0.05837th+0.15619th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 38.6%Rush 61.4%
Havoc/Game
13.1
Havoc Rate
18.8%
TO Margin
+0.9
Explosive/G
15.0
Yards/Game
347.9
Pts/Drive
1.80
3rd Down%
38.8%
3&Out%
22.2%

Team Statistics

2024 season totals across 13 games — Sam Houston vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatSam HoustonOpponents
Scoring
Points309266
Points / Game23.820.5
First Downs
Total245238
Rushing123111
Passing104112
Penalty1815
Rushing
Attempts557475
Yards2,3371,879
Yards / Carry4.24.0
Yards / Game179.8144.5
Touchdowns2117
Passing
Attempts350399
Completions217229
Completion %62.0%57.4%
Yards2,1862,301
Yards / Attempt6.25.8
Touchdowns1514
Interceptions916
Passer Rating123.46109.39
Total Offense
Plays907874
Yards4,5234,180
Yards / Play5.04.8
Yards / Game347.9321.5
Punt Returns
Returns1734
Yards69279
Average4.18.2
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns2232
Yards439728
Average20.022.8
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts6663
Yards2,7162,681
Average41.242.6
Interception Returns
Returns169
Yards18291
Touchdowns20
Fumbles
Fumbles1622
Lost611
Penalties
Penalties6087
Yards493727
Yards / Game37.955.9
Time of Possession
Per Game32:1227:50
Third Downs
Attempts196189
Conversions7672
Conversion %38.8%38.1%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2131
Conversions1412
Conversion %66.7%38.7%
Red Zone
Trips3940
Scores (TD + FG)2930
Score %74.4%75.0%
Touchdowns2024
TD %51.3%60.0%
Field Goals
Attempts2415
Made1411
Pct58.3%73.3%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3529
Made3529
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts24
Made12
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →