Fourth Down Data
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NIU

Northern Illinois

HuskiesBalanced
Mountain West Conference8-5#87 (-3.53)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

35· DOverall
Offense
12· FRating
19· DPer play
27· DConsistency
14· FBig plays
Defense
72· BRating
95· APer play
94· AConsistency
Situational
42· CRed-zone O
89· BRed-zone D
32· D3rd down O
95· A3rd down D
How grades work →2017 is the earliest season the model grades — first-year numbers run a touch noisier than later seasons.

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.083
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.118
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.108
Defensive EPA/play
-0.201
lower = better
Off Success Rate
44.3%
Def Success Rate
40.3%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
20.9%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
19.8%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.093
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.085
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.75

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.10
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.62
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.87
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.12
own return game
Return Defense
-0.02
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#87
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#75
recruiting 12 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Northern Illinois ranks among all FBS teams in 2017 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
15th
Opp-adjusted defense
86th
Offensive EPA/play
20th
Defensive EPA/play
96th
Offensive success rate
26th
Explosiveness
14th
Defensive havoc
89th
Points per drive
23th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Texas2017OA -0.139 / +0.201similar: rushing offense, defensive EPA, passing offense4482Duke2026OA -0.051 / +0.074similar: rushing offense, offensive EPA, takeaway rate4233Duke2024OA -0.050 / +0.054similar: passing offense, turnover rate, run defense3934Marshall2022OA -0.104 / +0.202similar: offensive EPA, defensive EPA, havoc rate3845Utah2023OA -0.066 / +0.115similar: defensive success rate, rushing offense, run defense381

2017 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Boston College20-23L+5.5L49O
2vs Eastern Illinois38-10W-14.0W--
3@ Nebraska21-17W+10.5W57U
5@ San Diego State28-34L+9.0W47O
6vs Kent State24-3W-23.0L44U
7@ Buffalo14-13W-7.5L50U
8@ Bowling Green48-17W-14.0W54.5O
9vs Eastern Michigan30-27W-7.5L47.5O
10@ Toledo17-27L+7.5L56.5U
11vs Ball State63-17W-29.5W50.5O
12vs Western Michigan35-31W-8.5L49.5O
13@ Central Michigan24-31L-2.5L51.5O
18vs Duke14-36L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
5-7
41.7%
O/U Record
7-4
63.6%
Straight Up
8-4
66.7%
Home ATS2-4
Away ATS3-3
Favorite ATS3-5
Underdog ATS2-2
Last 5 ATS
LLWLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off20thRush Off14thRed Zone Off42th3rd Down Off32thPass Def94thRush Def83thRed Zone Def90th3rd Down Def95th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.12712th-0.18092th
Red Zone-0.03242th-0.23390th
Third Down-0.11432th-0.39995th
No Garbage Time-0.09824th-0.19495th
First Half-0.04842th-0.26398th
Second Half-0.2097th-0.09673th
Early Downs-0.12412th-0.16192th
Passing Downs-0.12020th-0.24494th
Standard Downs-0.13114th-0.13783th
Goal to Go+0.24984th-0.39292th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 42.1%Rush 57.9%
Havoc/Game
17.3
Havoc Rate
23.0%
TO Margin
-0.2
Explosive/G
14.0
Yards/Game
377.8
Pts/Drive
1.75
3rd Down%
39.2%
3&Out%
31.2%

Team Statistics

2017 season totals across 13 games — Northern Illinois vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatNorthern IllinoisOpponents
Scoring
Points376286
Points / Game28.922.0
First Downs
Total263221
Rushing12684
Passing113116
Penalty2421
Rushing
Attempts558526
Yards2,3121,560
Yards / Carry4.13.0
Yards / Game177.8120.0
Touchdowns1814
Passing
Attempts405427
Completions231242
Completion %57.0%56.7%
Yards2,5992,841
Yards / Attempt6.46.7
Touchdowns2516
Interceptions1115
Passer Rating125.88117.90
Total Offense
Plays963953
Yards4,9114,401
Yards / Play5.14.6
Yards / Game377.8338.5
Punt Returns
Returns3118
Yards154129
Average5.07.2
Touchdowns21
Kickoff Returns
Returns4046
Yards851904
Average21.319.7
Touchdowns01
Punting
Punts86101
Yards3,4753,918
Average40.438.8
Interception Returns
Returns1511
Yards284157
Touchdowns31
Fumbles
Fumbles2216
Lost137
Penalties
Penalties8078
Yards722807
Yards / Game55.562.1
Time of Possession
Per Game28:3531:25
Third Downs
Attempts204220
Conversions8067
Conversion %39.2%30.5%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1718
Conversions510
Conversion %29.4%55.6%
Red Zone
Trips4548
Scores (TD + FG)3639
Score %80.0%81.3%
Touchdowns2822
TD %62.2%45.8%
Field Goals
Attempts1627
Made919
Pct56.3%70.4%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4932
Made4931
Pct100.0%96.9%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts01
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →