Fourth Down Data
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DUKE

Duke

Blue DevilsBalanced
Atlantic Coast Conference9-4#49 (+2.47)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

64· COverall
Offense
25· DRating
12· FPer play
23· DConsistency
2· FBig plays
Defense
82· BRating
89· BPer play
98· A+Consistency
Situational
85· BRed-zone O
90· A-Red-zone D
3· F3rd down O
98· A+3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.050
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.054
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.124
Defensive EPA/play
-0.124
lower = better
Off Success Rate
43.0%
Def Success Rate
40.1%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
19.7%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
22.5%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.000
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.111
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.90

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.31
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.17
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.13
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.03
own return game
Return Defense
-0.02
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#49
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#82
model 33 higher
Recruiting Rank
#70
model 21 spots higher
1 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Duke ranks among all FBS teams in 2024 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
9th
Opp-adjusted defense
91th
Offensive EPA/play
12th
Defensive EPA/play
90th
Offensive success rate
19th
Explosiveness
2th
Defensive havoc
98th
Points per drive
24th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Miami2019OA -0.046 / +0.076similar: havoc rate, defensive EPA, run defense3952Northern Illinois2017OA -0.083 / +0.118similar: passing offense, turnover rate, run defense3933Texas2017OA -0.139 / +0.201similar: defensive EPA, offensive EPA, offensive success rate3924Texas State2022OA -0.153 / +0.039similar: offensive EPA, passing offense, run defense3585NC State2023OA -0.033 / +0.114similar: TD drive rate, passing offense, defensive EPA353

2024 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Elon26-3W+3.0W39.75O
2@ Northwestern26-20W----
3vs UConn26-21W-16.5L47.5U
4@ Middle Tennessee45-17W-14.5W51O
5vs North Carolina21-20W-2.5L56U
6@ Georgia Tech14-24L+9.0L53U
8vs Florida State23-16W----
9vs SMU27-28L+12.0W48.5O
10@ Miami31-53L+21.0L54.5O
11@ NC State29-19W+3.0W53U
13vs Virginia Tech31-28W+3.5W47.5O
14@ Wake Forest23-17W-4.0W53.5U
19@ Ole Miss20-52L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
7-6
53.8%
O/U Record
6-7
46.2%
Straight Up
9-4
69.2%
Home ATS3-3
Away ATS4-3
Favorite ATS3-3
Underdog ATS4-3
Last 5 ATS
LWWWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off10thRush Off10thRed Zone Off86th3rd Down Off3thPass Def56thRush Def98thRed Zone Def91th3rd Down Def99th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.1299th-0.10988th
Red Zone+0.20886th-0.22791th
Third Down-0.2713th-0.25999th
No Garbage Time-0.12110th-0.12090th
First Half-0.13813th-0.12487th
Second Half-0.1209th-0.09185th
Early Downs-0.07719th-0.14693th
Passing Downs-0.18210th-0.01656th
Standard Downs-0.09810th-0.16198th
Goal to Go+0.23984th-0.30589th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 55.1%Rush 44.9%
Havoc/Game
18.8
Havoc Rate
25.5%
TO Margin
+0.6
Explosive/G
12.1
Yards/Game
336.8
Pts/Drive
1.90
3rd Down%
29.5%
3&Out%
28.3%

Team Statistics

2024 season totals across 13 games — Duke vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatDukeOpponents
Scoring
Points342318
Points / Game26.324.5
First Downs
Total229264
Rushing60113
Passing141122
Penalty2829
Rushing
Attempts381519
Yards1,2021,945
Yards / Carry3.23.7
Yards / Game92.5149.6
Touchdowns1315
Passing
Attempts467424
Completions280246
Completion %60.0%58.0%
Yards3,1762,775
Yards / Attempt6.86.5
Touchdowns2819
Interceptions1313
Passer Rating131.30121.65
Total Offense
Plays848943
Yards4,3784,720
Yards / Play5.25.0
Yards / Game336.8363.1
Punt Returns
Returns2721
Yards24194
Average8.94.5
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns2235
Yards532781
Average24.222.3
Touchdowns11
Punting
Punts7770
Yards3,3313,025
Average43.343.2
Interception Returns
Returns1313
Yards211174
Touchdowns12
Fumbles
Fumbles1124
Lost614
Penalties
Penalties6787
Yards651755
Yards / Game50.158.1
Time of Possession
Per Game27:2432:21
Third Downs
Attempts176201
Conversions5268
Conversion %29.5%33.8%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1923
Conversions714
Conversion %36.8%60.9%
Red Zone
Trips4144
Scores (TD + FG)3536
Score %85.4%81.8%
Touchdowns2822
TD %68.3%50.0%
Field Goals
Attempts2026
Made1519
Pct75.0%73.1%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3735
Made3535
Pct94.6%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts52
Made12
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →