Fourth Down Data
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MIA

Miami

HurricanesBalanced
Atlantic Coast Conference6-7#42 (+5.98)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

69· COverall
Offense
54· CRating
24· DPer play
20· DConsistency
41· CBig plays
Defense
79· BRating
85· BPer play
94· AConsistency
Situational
52· CRed-zone O
89· BRed-zone D
4· F3rd down O
55· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.046
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.076
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.072
Defensive EPA/play
-0.115
lower = better
Off Success Rate
43.5%
Def Success Rate
40.4%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.4%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.9%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.044
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.152
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.90

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.00
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.28
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.29
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.08
own return game
Return Defense
-0.09
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#42
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#16
recruiting 26 spots higher
37 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Miami ranks among all FBS teams in 2019 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
32th
Opp-adjusted defense
78th
Offensive EPA/play
24th
Defensive EPA/play
86th
Offensive success rate
24th
Explosiveness
42th
Defensive havoc
95th
Points per drive
34th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Duke2024OA -0.050 / +0.054similar: havoc rate, defensive EPA, run defense3952Temple2019OA -0.103 / +0.056similar: TD drive rate, rushing offense, offensive EPA3753Toledo2024OA -0.022 / +0.030similar: offensive EPA, turnover rate, offensive success rate3734Pittsburgh2022OA -0.021 / +0.091similar: defensive EPA, havoc rate, defensive success rate3625Texas2017OA -0.139 / +0.201similar: rushing offense, takeaway rate, defensive EPA358

2019 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
0@ Florida20-24L----
2@ North Carolina25-28L-5.0L46O
3vs Bethune-Cookman63-0W-41.5W56O
4vs Central Michigan17-12W-30.5L48U
6vs Virginia Tech35-42L-14.0L46O
7vs Virginia17-9W-2.5W44.5U
8vs Georgia Tech21-28L-18.0L46O
9@ Pittsburgh16-12W+4.5W43U
10@ Florida State27-10W+3.0W49.5U
11vs Louisville52-27W-7.0W49.5O
13@ Florida International24-30L-21.5L51O
14@ Duke17-27L-9.0L44.5U
18vs Louisiana Tech0-14L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
5-7
41.7%
O/U Record
6-6
50.0%
Straight Up
6-6
50.0%
Home ATS3-4
Away ATS2-3
Favorite ATS3-7
Underdog ATS2-0
Last 5 ATS
WWWLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off13thRush Off54thRed Zone Off53th3rd Down Off4thPass Def81thRush Def86thRed Zone Def90th3rd Down Def56th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.05626th-0.10586th
Red Zone-0.01553th-0.26790th
Third Down-0.2994th-0.00556th
No Garbage Time-0.08023th-0.11585th
First Half-0.07220th-0.11181th
Second Half-0.04134th-0.09986th
Early Downs+0.07078th-0.13993th
Passing Downs-0.17013th-0.09981th
Standard Downs+0.00954th-0.11086th
Goal to Go-0.08042th-0.21172th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 51.8%Rush 48.2%
Havoc/Game
16.8
Havoc Rate
24.3%
TO Margin
+0.2
Explosive/G
14.2
Yards/Game
367.2
Pts/Drive
1.90
3rd Down%
27.2%
3&Out%
21.8%

Team Statistics

2019 season totals across 13 games — Miami vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatMiamiOpponents
Scoring
Points334263
Points / Game25.720.2
First Downs
Total253219
Rushing8183
Passing145106
Penalty2730
Rushing
Attempts407470
Yards1,5351,490
Yards / Carry3.83.2
Yards / Game118.1114.6
Touchdowns1613
Passing
Attempts437379
Completions255208
Completion %58.4%54.9%
Yards3,2392,538
Yards / Attempt7.46.7
Touchdowns2716
Interceptions1010
Passer Rating136.42119.79
Total Offense
Plays844849
Yards4,7744,028
Yards / Play5.74.7
Yards / Game367.2309.8
Punt Returns
Returns2124
Yards299132
Average14.25.5
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns2528
Yards511670
Average20.423.9
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts6580
Yards2,8243,244
Average43.440.5
Interception Returns
Returns1010
Yards13694
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles1918
Lost710
Penalties
Penalties9198
Yards782866
Yards / Game60.266.6
Time of Possession
Per Game30:1429:46
Third Downs
Attempts162202
Conversions4475
Conversion %27.2%37.1%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2517
Conversions1312
Conversion %52.0%70.6%
Red Zone
Trips5437
Scores (TD + FG)3930
Score %72.2%81.1%
Touchdowns2918
TD %53.7%48.6%
Field Goals
Attempts2021
Made1217
Pct60.0%81.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4029
Made3828
Pct95.0%96.6%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts31
Made11
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →