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TOL
Toledo
RocketsBalancedMid-American Conference8-5#65 (+1.18)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
52· COverall
Offense
23· DRating
24· DPer play
20· DConsistency
17· DBig plays
Defense
69· CRating
77· BPer play
62· CConsistency
Situational
30· DRed-zone O
51· CRed-zone D
29· D3rd down O
82· B3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.022
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.030
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.058
Defensive EPA/play
-0.085
lower = better
Off Success Rate
42.9%
Def Success Rate
44.3%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
21.7%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
21.3%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.027
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.104
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.96
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
+1.13
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.04
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.83
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.14
own return game
Return Defense
+0.12
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#65
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#32
market 33 higher
Recruiting Rank
#80
model 15 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Toledo ranks among all FBS teams in 2024 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense26th
Opp-adjusted defense77th
Offensive EPA/play25th
Defensive EPA/play78th
Offensive success rate18th
Explosiveness17th
Defensive havoc68th
Points per drive28th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Troy2025OA -0.100 / +0.021similar: takeaway rate, offensive success rate, TD drive rate4232Eastern Michigan2017OA -0.078 / +0.060similar: defensive success rate, pass defense, defensive EPA4053Penn State2021OA -0.022 / +0.125similar: rushing offense, defensive success rate, offensive success rate3964Iowa2017OA -0.004 / +0.093similar: defensive EPA, offensive EPA, offensive success rate3885Indiana2017OA -0.039 / +0.073similar: turnover rate, offensive EPA, havoc rate387
2024 Schedule & Results
13 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Duquesne | 49-10 | W | - | - | - | - |
| 2 | vs Massachusetts | 38-23 | W | -19.5 | L | 51 | O |
| 3 | @ Mississippi State | 41-17 | W | +12.0 | W | 58 | P |
| 4 | @ Western Kentucky | 21-26 | L | -2.5 | L | 60 | U |
| 6 | vs Miami (OH) | 30-20 | W | -6.5 | W | 44 | O |
| 7 | @ Buffalo | 15-30 | L | -9.5 | L | 44.5 | O |
| 8 | @ Northern Illinois | 13-6 | W | +2.5 | W | 43 | U |
| 9 | vs Bowling Green | 26-41 | L | -2.5 | L | 49.5 | O |
| 10 | @ Eastern Michigan | 29-28 | W | -8.5 | L | 53.5 | O |
| 12 | vs Central Michigan | 37-10 | W | -1.5 | L | 44.5 | U |
| 13 | vs Ohio | 7-24 | L | -9.0 | L | 49 | U |
| 14 | @ Akron | 14-21 | L | - | - | - | - |
| 18 | vs Pittsburgh | 48-46 | W | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
6-7
46.2%
O/U Record
7-5-1
58.3%
Straight Up
8-5
61.5%
Home ATS4-3
Away ATS2-4
Favorite ATS3-7
Underdog ATS3-0
Last 5 ATS
LWLLW
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.057 | 21th | -0.077 | 79th |
| Red Zone | -0.079 | 31th | -0.010 | 51th |
| Third Down | +0.004 | 29th | -0.062 | 83th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.056 | 24th | -0.091 | 81th |
| First Half | -0.005 | 45th | -0.144 | 91th |
| Second Half | -0.119 | 10th | -0.020 | 59th |
| Early Downs | -0.030 | 42th | -0.103 | 81th |
| Passing Downs | -0.154 | 17th | -0.059 | 63th |
| Standard Downs | -0.002 | 47th | -0.087 | 81th |
| Goal to Go | -0.060 | 36th | +0.203 | 13th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 51.0%Rush 49.0%
Havoc/Game
15.2
Havoc Rate
20.4%
TO Margin
+0.1
Explosive/G
13.2
Yards/Game
369.9
Pts/Drive
1.96
3rd Down%
35.3%
3&Out%
23.8%
Team Statistics
2024 season totals across 13 games — Toledo vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Toledo | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 368 | 302 |
| Points / Game | 28.3 | 23.2 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 257 | 266 |
| Rushing | 81 | 115 |
| Passing | 144 | 126 |
| Penalty | 32 | 25 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 436 | 525 |
| Yards | 1,504 | 1,959 |
| Yards / Carry | 3.4 | 3.7 |
| Yards / Game | 115.7 | 150.7 |
| Touchdowns | 13 | 16 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 453 | 426 |
| Completions | 276 | 245 |
| Completion % | 60.9% | 57.5% |
| Yards | 3,305 | 2,703 |
| Yards / Attempt | 7.3 | 6.3 |
| Touchdowns | 28 | 16 |
| Interceptions | 8 | 13 |
| Passer Rating | 139.08 | 117.10 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 889 | 951 |
| Yards | 4,809 | 4,662 |
| Yards / Play | 5.4 | 4.9 |
| Yards / Game | 369.9 | 358.6 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 22 | 18 |
| Yards | 285 | 88 |
| Average | 13.0 | 4.9 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 28 | 38 |
| Yards | 674 | 710 |
| Average | 24.1 | 18.7 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 61 | 73 |
| Yards | 2,475 | 2,990 |
| Average | 40.6 | 41.0 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 13 | 8 |
| Yards | 230 | 98 |
| Touchdowns | 3 | 1 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 24 | 24 |
| Lost | 11 | 7 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 83 | 90 |
| Yards | 739 | 829 |
| Yards / Game | 56.8 | 63.8 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 26:56 | 33:04 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 184 | 204 |
| Conversions | 65 | 78 |
| Conversion % | 35.3% | 38.2% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 35 | 25 |
| Conversions | 19 | 12 |
| Conversion % | 54.3% | 48.0% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 50 | 51 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 37 | 46 |
| Score % | 74.0% | 90.2% |
| Touchdowns | 27 | 28 |
| TD % | 54.0% | 54.9% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 21 | 23 |
| Made | 15 | 21 |
| Pct | 71.4% | 91.3% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 42 | 29 |
| Made | 41 | 29 |
| Pct | 97.6% | 100.0% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 7 | 8 |
| Made | 6 | 4 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.