Fourth Down Data
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PSU

Penn State

Nittany LionsBalanced
Big Ten Conference7-6#29 (+5.63)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

78· BOverall
Offense
32· DRating
29· DPer play
24· DConsistency
24· DBig plays
Defense
96· ARating
90· A-Per play
68· CConsistency
Situational
11· FRed-zone O
96· ARed-zone D
51· C3rd down O
91· A-3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.022
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.125
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.059
Defensive EPA/play
-0.127
lower = better
Off Success Rate
43.4%
Def Success Rate
44.1%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
22.5%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
21.0%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.068
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.033
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.86

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.79
expected pts/game
Kicking
+1.34
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.40
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.60
own return game
Return Defense
+0.46
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#29
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#35
model 6 higher
Recruiting Rank
#11
recruiting 18 spots higher
50 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Penn State ranks among all FBS teams in 2021 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
41th
Opp-adjusted defense
93th
Offensive EPA/play
29th
Defensive EPA/play
91th
Offensive success rate
23th
Explosiveness
24th
Defensive havoc
47th
Points per drive
28th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Toledo2024OA -0.022 / +0.030similar: rushing offense, defensive success rate, offensive success rate3962Michigan State2017OA +0.020 / +0.139similar: passing offense, takeaway rate, defensive EPA3913Northwestern2023OA -0.030 / +0.013similar: offensive success rate, TD drive rate, run defense3764Baylor2020OA -0.052 / +0.028similar: rushing offense, defensive success rate, run defense3705Miami (OH)2024OA -0.003 / +0.041similar: TD drive rate, passing offense, pass defense368

2021 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Wisconsin16-10W+5.5W50U
2vs Ball State44-13W-22.5W54.5O
3vs Auburn28-20W-4.5W49.25U
4vs Villanova38-17W-29.5L--
5vs Indiana24-0W-12.5W53.5U
6@ Iowa20-23L+1.5L40.75O
8vs Illinois18-20L-23.8L46.5U
9@ Ohio State24-33L+18.5W61U
10@ Maryland31-14W-10.5W55.5U
11vs Michigan17-21L-0.8L48.5U
12vs Rutgers28-0W-17.5W46U
13@ Michigan State27-30L-1.0L51.5O
18@ Arkansas10-24L+3.0L50.5U

Betting Profile

ATS Record
7-6
53.8%
O/U Record
3-9
25.0%
Straight Up
7-6
53.8%
Home ATS4-3
Away ATS3-3
Favorite ATS5-4
Underdog ATS2-2
Last 5 ATS
WLWLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off32thRush Off26thRed Zone Off11th3rd Down Off51thPass Def78thRush Def86thRed Zone Def97th3rd Down Def92th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.05829th-0.11489th
Red Zone-0.24011th-0.37797th
Third Down+0.09051th-0.20792th
No Garbage Time-0.06229th-0.12792th
First Half-0.09621th-0.14991th
Second Half-0.02038th-0.07977th
Early Downs-0.03536th-0.09079th
Passing Downs-0.06232th-0.12678th
Standard Downs-0.05626th-0.10686th
Goal to Go-0.10240th-0.52994th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 52.7%Rush 47.3%
Havoc/Game
14.1
Havoc Rate
18.3%
TO Margin
+0.5
Explosive/G
14.9
Yards/Game
376.5
Pts/Drive
1.86
3rd Down%
39.0%
3&Out%
22.4%

Team Statistics

2021 season totals across 13 games — Penn State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatPenn StateOpponents
Scoring
Points325225
Points / Game25.017.3
First Downs
Total264274
Rushing91124
Passing158121
Penalty1529
Rushing
Attempts437525
Yards1,4041,999
Yards / Carry3.23.8
Yards / Game108.0153.8
Touchdowns1112
Passing
Attempts486440
Completions291262
Completion %59.9%59.5%
Yards3,4912,598
Yards / Attempt7.25.9
Touchdowns2511
Interceptions1014
Passer Rating133.07111.03
Total Offense
Plays923965
Yards4,8954,597
Yards / Play5.34.8
Yards / Game376.5353.6
Punt Returns
Returns1715
Yards12839
Average7.52.6
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns192
Yards35228
Average18.514.0
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts6779
Yards3,0833,418
Average46.043.3
Interception Returns
Returns1410
Yards18650
Touchdowns30
Fumbles
Fumbles1215
Lost57
Penalties
Penalties7072
Yards604565
Yards / Game46.543.5
Time of Possession
Per Game27:5732:03
Third Downs
Attempts195211
Conversions7676
Conversion %39.0%36.0%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2624
Conversions1215
Conversion %46.2%62.5%
Red Zone
Trips4248
Scores (TD + FG)3332
Score %78.6%66.7%
Touchdowns2018
TD %47.6%37.5%
Field Goals
Attempts2521
Made1718
Pct68.0%85.7%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3823
Made3621
Pct94.7%91.3%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts88
Made23
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →