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NU
Northwestern
WildcatsBalancedBig Ten Conference8-5#79 (-1.70)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
42· COverall
Offense
23· DRating
22· DPer play
19· DConsistency
7· FBig plays
Defense
54· CRating
67· CPer play
38· DConsistency
Situational
62· CRed-zone O
50· CRed-zone D
48· C3rd down O
89· B3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.030
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.013
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.069
Defensive EPA/play
-0.038
lower = better
Off Success Rate
43.5%
Def Success Rate
46.7%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
20.6%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
22.3%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.031
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.005
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.73
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-0.13
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.53
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.12
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.02
own return game
Return Defense
+0.31
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#79
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#118
model 39 higher
Recruiting Rank
#49
recruiting 30 spots higher
7 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Northwestern ranks among all FBS teams in 2023 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense33th
Opp-adjusted defense59th
Offensive EPA/play22th
Defensive EPA/play67th
Offensive success rate19th
Explosiveness7th
Defensive havoc34th
Points per drive21th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Virginia2017OA -0.067 / +0.061similar: rushing offense, offensive success rate, defensive EPA4042Baylor2020OA -0.052 / +0.028similar: passing offense, pass defense, run defense3953Minnesota2025OA +0.003 / +0.015similar: rushing offense, turnover rate, takeaway rate3844Northern Illinois2019OA -0.044 / -0.008similar: passing offense, offensive EPA, offensive success rate3815Penn State2021OA -0.022 / +0.125similar: run defense, offensive success rate, TD drive rate374
2023 Schedule & Results
13 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @ Rutgers | 7-24 | L | +6.0 | L | 39.5 | U |
| 2 | vs UTEP | 38-7 | W | -1.0 | W | 40 | O |
| 3 | @ Duke | 14-38 | L | +18.5 | L | 48.5 | O |
| 4 | vs Minnesota | 37-34 | W | +11.5 | W | 39 | O |
| 5 | vs Penn State | 13-41 | L | +26.5 | L | 46 | O |
| 6 | vs Howard | 23-20 | W | -23.0 | L | 52.25 | U |
| 8 | @ Nebraska | 9-17 | L | +11.5 | W | 41 | U |
| 9 | vs Maryland | 33-27 | W | +13.5 | W | 48.5 | O |
| 10 | vs Iowa | 7-10 | L | +5.0 | W | 31 | U |
| 11 | @ Wisconsin | 24-10 | W | +11.0 | W | 42.5 | U |
| 12 | vs Purdue | 23-15 | W | +3.0 | W | 46.5 | U |
| 13 | @ Illinois | 45-43 | W | +5.8 | W | 47 | O |
| 17 | vs Utah | 14-7 | W | +6.5 | W | 41.5 | U |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
9-4
69.2%
O/U Record
6-7
46.2%
Straight Up
8-5
61.5%
Home ATS6-2
Away ATS3-2
Favorite ATS1-1
Underdog ATS8-3
Last 5 ATS
WWWWW
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.070 | 19th | -0.048 | 73th |
| Red Zone | +0.060 | 63th | -0.007 | 50th |
| Third Down | +0.194 | 49th | -0.041 | 90th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.069 | 23th | -0.039 | 70th |
| First Half | -0.079 | 21th | -0.104 | 88th |
| Second Half | -0.063 | 27th | +0.008 | 49th |
| Early Downs | -0.122 | 15th | -0.041 | 50th |
| Passing Downs | +0.023 | 39th | +0.007 | 59th |
| Standard Downs | -0.123 | 11th | -0.073 | 73th |
| Goal to Go | -0.143 | 20th | -0.019 | 54th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 45.9%Rush 54.1%
Havoc/Game
12.1
Havoc Rate
17.2%
TO Margin
+1.0
Explosive/G
12.5
Yards/Game
303.9
Pts/Drive
1.73
3rd Down%
40.8%
3&Out%
28.9%
Team Statistics
2023 season totals across 13 games — Northwestern vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Northwestern | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 287 | 293 |
| Points / Game | 22.1 | 22.5 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 220 | 239 |
| Rushing | 84 | 118 |
| Passing | 116 | 107 |
| Penalty | 20 | 14 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 458 | 504 |
| Yards | 1,325 | 2,052 |
| Yards / Carry | 2.9 | 4.1 |
| Yards / Game | 101.9 | 157.8 |
| Touchdowns | 14 | 20 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 389 | 358 |
| Completions | 241 | 232 |
| Completion % | 62.0% | 64.8% |
| Yards | 2,626 | 2,378 |
| Yards / Attempt | 6.8 | 6.6 |
| Touchdowns | 20 | 15 |
| Interceptions | 8 | 13 |
| Passer Rating | 131.51 | 127.17 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 847 | 862 |
| Yards | 3,951 | 4,430 |
| Yards / Play | 4.7 | 5.1 |
| Yards / Game | 303.9 | 340.8 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 11 | 14 |
| Yards | 70 | 22 |
| Average | 6.4 | 1.6 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 27 | 39 |
| Yards | 584 | 660 |
| Average | 21.6 | 16.9 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 74 | 57 |
| Yards | 2,829 | 2,345 |
| Average | 38.2 | 41.1 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 13 | 8 |
| Yards | 101 | 94 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 1 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 13 | 21 |
| Lost | 1 | 9 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 69 | 54 |
| Yards | 554 | 491 |
| Yards / Game | 42.6 | 37.8 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 28:37 | 31:23 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 191 | 184 |
| Conversions | 78 | 73 |
| Conversion % | 40.8% | 39.7% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 14 | 26 |
| Conversions | 3 | 13 |
| Conversion % | 21.4% | 50.0% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 41 | 45 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 36 | 36 |
| Score % | 87.8% | 80.0% |
| Touchdowns | 25 | 28 |
| TD % | 61.0% | 62.2% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 19 | 19 |
| Made | 14 | 14 |
| Pct | 73.7% | 73.7% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 33 | 31 |
| Made | 33 | 31 |
| Pct | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 1 | 5 |
| Made | 0 | 2 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.