Fourth Down Data
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MINN

Minnesota

Golden GophersBalanced
Big Ten Conference8-5#52 (+3.86)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

62· COverall
Offense
66· CRating
33· DPer play
26· DConsistency
10· FBig plays
Defense
57· CRating
53· CPer play
44· CConsistency
Situational
43· CRed-zone O
68· CRed-zone D
24· D3rd down O
60· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.003
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.015
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.054
Defensive EPA/play
-0.023
lower = better
Off Success Rate
44.4%
Def Success Rate
45.5%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
20.1%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.9%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.032
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.008
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.07

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.34
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.17
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.64
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.06
own return game
Return Defense
-0.07
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#52
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#85
model 33 higher
Recruiting Rank
#46
recruiting 6 spots higher
9 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Minnesota ranks among all FBS teams in 2025 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
54th
Opp-adjusted defense
59th
Offensive EPA/play
33th
Defensive EPA/play
53th
Offensive success rate
31th
Explosiveness
10th
Defensive havoc
91th
Points per drive
38th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Northwestern2023OA -0.030 / +0.013similar: rushing offense, turnover rate, takeaway rate3842Texas A&M2017OA -0.004 / +0.039similar: defensive EPA, offensive success rate, rushing offense3633Buffalo2024OA -0.016 / +0.027similar: turnover rate, offensive EPA, passing offense3524LSU2021OA -0.022 / +0.029similar: offensive EPA, TD drive rate, rushing offense3465Auburn2018OA +0.046 / +0.138similar: offensive EPA, havoc rate, turnover rate336

2025 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Buffalo23-10W----
2vs Northwestern State66-0W-43.0W50.5O
3@ California14-27L-2.5L41P
5vs Rutgers31-28W-5.0L51.5O
6@ Ohio State3-42L+23.5L43O
7vs Purdue27-20W+7.0W47.5U
8vs Nebraska24-6W----
9@ Iowa3-41L+21.5L41.5O
10vs Michigan State23-20W-3.0P29.5O
12@ Oregon13-42L----
13@ Northwestern35-38L+3.5W40O
14vs Wisconsin17-7W-3.0W33U
18vs New Mexico20-17W----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
5-7-1
41.7%
O/U Record
8-4-1
66.7%
Straight Up
8-5
61.5%
Home ATS4-3
Away ATS1-4
Favorite ATS3-4
Underdog ATS2-3
Last 5 ATS
PLWWW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off36thRush Off19thRed Zone Off44th3rd Down Off24thPass Def56thRush Def59thRed Zone Def69th3rd Down Def61th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.06830th-0.04059th
Red Zone-0.03444th-0.09669th
Third Down-0.06124th+0.02461th
No Garbage Time-0.05533th-0.04259th
First Half-0.10417th-0.06970th
Second Half-0.03239th-0.00645th
Early Downs-0.06922th-0.06571th
Passing Downs-0.06036th-0.04856th
Standard Downs-0.07219th-0.03559th
Goal to Go+0.13568th-0.09861th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 51.5%Rush 48.5%
Havoc/Game
13.7
Havoc Rate
21.8%
TO Margin
+0.5
Explosive/G
10.1
Yards/Game
293.2
Pts/Drive
2.07
3rd Down%
40.1%
3&Out%
29.4%

Team Statistics

2025 season totals across 13 games — Minnesota vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatMinnesotaOpponents
Scoring
Points299298
Points / Game23.022.9
First Downs
Total222229
Rushing8099
Passing113120
Penalty2910
Rushing
Attempts376423
Yards1,3421,574
Yards / Carry3.63.7
Yards / Game103.2121.1
Touchdowns1516
Passing
Attempts399370
Completions251248
Completion %62.9%67.0%
Yards2,4692,737
Yards / Attempt6.27.4
Touchdowns1916
Interceptions79
Passer Rating127.09138.57
Total Offense
Plays775793
Yards3,8114,311
Yards / Play4.95.4
Yards / Game293.2331.6
Punt Returns
Returns2017
Yards120181
Average6.010.6
Touchdowns01
Kickoff Returns
Returns2512
Yards570274
Average22.822.8
Touchdowns01
Punting
Punts6556
Yards2,7682,291
Average42.640.9
Interception Returns
Returns97
Yards168132
Touchdowns21
Fumbles
Fumbles914
Lost27
Penalties
Penalties4974
Yards406630
Yards / Game31.248.5
Time of Possession
Per Game29:2230:09
Third Downs
Attempts167166
Conversions6767
Conversion %40.1%40.4%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1415
Conversions69
Conversion %42.9%60.0%
Red Zone
Trips4544
Scores (TD + FG)3939
Score %86.7%88.6%
Touchdowns2724
TD %60.0%54.5%
Field Goals
Attempts2124
Made1417
Pct66.7%70.8%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3533
Made3533
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts02
Made02
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →