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LSU
LSU
TigersBalancedSoutheastern Conference6-7#73 (-0.27)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
45· COverall
Offense
42· CRating
30· DPer play
39· DConsistency
23· DBig plays
Defense
57· CRating
42· CPer play
61· CConsistency
Situational
38· DRed-zone O
5· FRed-zone D
19· D3rd down O
48· C3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.022
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.029
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.056
Defensive EPA/play
-0.001
lower = better
Off Success Rate
45.0%
Def Success Rate
44.5%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
22.4%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.7%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.055
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.034
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.07
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-0.39
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.47
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.11
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.81
own return game
Return Defense
+0.06
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#73
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#55
market 18 higher
Recruiting Rank
#5
recruiting 68 spots higher
58 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where LSU ranks among all FBS teams in 2021 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense41th
Opp-adjusted defense66th
Offensive EPA/play30th
Defensive EPA/play43th
Offensive success rate40th
Explosiveness23th
Defensive havoc73th
Points per drive47th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Texas A&M2017OA -0.004 / +0.039similar: TD drive rate, pass defense, run defense4702Sam Houston2026OA +0.018 / +0.019similar: turnover rate, takeaway rate, defensive success rate3813Florida State2017OA -0.027 / +0.090similar: takeaway rate, offensive success rate, offensive EPA3754USC2018OA -0.060 / +0.011similar: defensive EPA, offensive EPA, havoc rate3625Virginia2019OA +0.029 / +0.008similar: takeaway rate, defensive EPA, passing offense358
2021 Schedule & Results
13 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @ UCLA | 27-38 | L | -3.0 | L | 65.5 | U |
| 2 | vs McNeese State | 34-7 | W | -38.5 | L | 66.5 | U |
| 3 | vs Central Michigan | 49-21 | W | -34.0 | L | 66.5 | O |
| 4 | @ Mississippi State | 28-25 | W | -1.5 | W | 55.5 | U |
| 5 | vs Auburn | 19-24 | L | -3.5 | L | 55.5 | U |
| 6 | @ Kentucky | 21-42 | L | +3.0 | L | 50.5 | O |
| 7 | vs Florida | 49-42 | W | +10.5 | W | 59 | O |
| 8 | @ Ole Miss | 17-31 | L | +9.0 | L | 76 | U |
| 10 | @ Alabama | 14-20 | L | +28.5 | W | 66 | U |
| 11 | vs Arkansas | 13-16 | L | +2.5 | L | 59 | U |
| 12 | vs UL Monroe | 27-14 | W | -29.0 | L | 57.5 | U |
| 13 | vs Texas A&M | 27-24 | W | +6.5 | W | 45.5 | O |
| 19 | @ Kansas State | 20-42 | L | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
4-9
30.8%
O/U Record
5-8
38.5%
Straight Up
6-7
46.2%
Home ATS2-5
Away ATS2-4
Favorite ATS1-5
Underdog ATS3-4
Last 5 ATS
WLLWL
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.047 | 33th | +0.004 | 42th |
| Red Zone | -0.084 | 38th | +0.214 | 5th |
| Third Down | -0.090 | 20th | +0.075 | 49th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.073 | 23th | +0.003 | 41th |
| First Half | -0.093 | 22th | -0.112 | 84th |
| Second Half | -0.003 | 46th | +0.122 | 10th |
| Early Downs | -0.061 | 29th | -0.012 | 46th |
| Passing Downs | -0.057 | 35th | +0.047 | 35th |
| Standard Downs | -0.042 | 32th | -0.021 | 56th |
| Goal to Go | -0.032 | 50th | +0.117 | 32th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 49.9%Rush 50.1%
Havoc/Game
14.5
Havoc Rate
20.2%
TO Margin
-0.2
Explosive/G
14.0
Yards/Game
368.5
Pts/Drive
2.07
3rd Down%
37.0%
3&Out%
21.8%
Team Statistics
2021 season totals across 13 games — LSU vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | LSU | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 345 | 346 |
| Points / Game | 26.5 | 26.6 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 252 | 257 |
| Rushing | 91 | 102 |
| Passing | 140 | 142 |
| Penalty | 21 | 13 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 445 | 469 |
| Yards | 1,483 | 1,830 |
| Yards / Carry | 3.3 | 3.9 |
| Yards / Game | 114.1 | 140.8 |
| Touchdowns | 9 | 16 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 443 | 422 |
| Completions | 262 | 271 |
| Completion % | 59.1% | 64.2% |
| Yards | 3,307 | 3,078 |
| Yards / Attempt | 7.5 | 7.3 |
| Touchdowns | 32 | 29 |
| Interceptions | 11 | 8 |
| Passer Rating | 140.72 | 144.37 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 888 | 891 |
| Yards | 4,790 | 4,908 |
| Yards / Play | 5.4 | 5.5 |
| Yards / Game | 368.5 | 377.5 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 22 | 17 |
| Yards | 117 | 157 |
| Average | 5.3 | 9.2 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 12 | 11 |
| Yards | 216 | 232 |
| Average | 18.0 | 21.1 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 63 | 68 |
| Yards | 2,655 | 2,791 |
| Average | 42.1 | 41.0 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 8 | 11 |
| Yards | 142 | 105 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 1 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 16 | 11 |
| Lost | 5 | 5 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 56 | 71 |
| Yards | 445 | 585 |
| Yards / Game | 34.2 | 45.0 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 29:37 | 30:23 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 192 | 185 |
| Conversions | 71 | 74 |
| Conversion % | 37.0% | 40.0% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 32 | 21 |
| Conversions | 20 | 14 |
| Conversion % | 62.5% | 66.7% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 35 | 41 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 29 | 35 |
| Score % | 82.9% | 85.4% |
| Touchdowns | 21 | 30 |
| TD % | 60.0% | 73.2% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 18 | 13 |
| Made | 15 | 8 |
| Pct | 83.3% | 61.5% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 42 | 44 |
| Made | 42 | 42 |
| Pct | 100.0% | 95.5% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 0 | 2 |
| Made | 0 | 2 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.