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UVA
Virginia
CavaliersBalancedAtlantic Coast Conference9-5#38 (+7.14)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
72· BOverall
Offense
74· BRating
55· CPer play
48· CConsistency
49· CBig plays
Defense
54· CRating
50· CPer play
74· BConsistency
Situational
51· CRed-zone O
29· DRed-zone D
69· C3rd down O
43· C3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
+0.029
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.008
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.020
Defensive EPA/play
+0.002
lower = better
Off Success Rate
46.5%
Def Success Rate
42.6%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.8%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
26.0%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.018
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.056
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.51
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
+1.36
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.19
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.99
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.30
own return game
Return Defense
-0.11
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#38
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#64
model 26 spots higher
1 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Virginia ranks among all FBS teams in 2019 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense63th
Opp-adjusted defense54th
Offensive EPA/play55th
Defensive EPA/play50th
Offensive success rate52th
Explosiveness49th
Defensive havoc86th
Points per drive71th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Texas A&M2017OA -0.004 / +0.039similar: defensive EPA, rushing offense, passing offense3672LSU2021OA -0.022 / +0.029similar: takeaway rate, defensive EPA, passing offense3583Sam Houston2026OA +0.018 / +0.019similar: pass defense, offensive success rate, run defense3534Fresno State2023OA +0.055 / -0.018similar: TD drive rate, pass defense, passing offense3525Texas A&M2023OA +0.003 / +0.073similar: passing offense, offensive EPA, TD drive rate348
2019 Schedule & Results
14 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @ Pittsburgh | 30-14 | W | +16.0 | W | 55.5 | O |
| 2 | vs William & Mary | 52-17 | W | -32.5 | W | 52.5 | O |
| 3 | vs Florida State | 31-24 | W | -7.0 | P | 54.5 | O |
| 4 | vs Old Dominion | 28-17 | W | -27.0 | L | 47.5 | U |
| 5 | @ Notre Dame | 20-35 | L | +10.5 | L | 46.5 | O |
| 7 | @ Miami | 9-17 | L | +2.5 | L | 44.5 | U |
| 8 | vs Duke | 48-14 | W | -3.5 | W | 45 | O |
| 9 | @ Louisville | 21-28 | L | -4.5 | L | 51 | U |
| 10 | @ North Carolina | 38-31 | W | +1.0 | W | 48 | O |
| 11 | vs Georgia Tech | 33-28 | W | -15.5 | L | 46.5 | O |
| 13 | vs Liberty | 55-27 | W | -16.0 | W | 58 | O |
| 14 | vs Virginia Tech | 39-30 | W | +3.0 | W | 48 | O |
| 15 | @ Clemson | 17-62 | L | +29.0 | L | 57.5 | O |
| 18 | vs Florida | 28-36 | L | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
6-6-1
50.0%
O/U Record
10-3
76.9%
Straight Up
8-5
61.5%
Home ATS5-2
Away ATS1-4
Favorite ATS3-3
Underdog ATS3-3
Last 5 ATS
WLWWL
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | +0.003 | 48th | +0.014 | 43th |
| Red Zone | -0.023 | 51th | +0.066 | 29th |
| Third Down | +0.129 | 70th | +0.054 | 43th |
| No Garbage Time | +0.016 | 54th | +0.004 | 49th |
| First Half | +0.003 | 48th | +0.019 | 44th |
| Second Half | +0.004 | 48th | +0.008 | 51th |
| Early Downs | -0.003 | 46th | +0.063 | 19th |
| Passing Downs | -0.061 | 31th | -0.088 | 78th |
| Standard Downs | +0.035 | 66th | +0.075 | 18th |
| Goal to Go | +0.169 | 78th | -0.013 | 49th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 54.1%Rush 45.9%
Havoc/Game
14.9
Havoc Rate
22.1%
TO Margin
-0.2
Explosive/G
14.7
Yards/Game
388.9
Pts/Drive
2.51
3rd Down%
45.3%
3&Out%
19.3%
Team Statistics
2019 season totals across 14 games — Virginia vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Virginia | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 449 | 380 |
| Points / Game | 32.1 | 27.1 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 296 | 266 |
| Rushing | 89 | 117 |
| Passing | 180 | 125 |
| Penalty | 27 | 24 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 442 | 497 |
| Yards | 1,697 | 1,934 |
| Yards / Carry | 3.8 | 3.9 |
| Yards / Game | 121.2 | 138.1 |
| Touchdowns | 28 | 23 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 520 | 409 |
| Completions | 337 | 231 |
| Completion % | 64.8% | 56.5% |
| Yards | 3,748 | 3,272 |
| Yards / Attempt | 7.2 | 8.0 |
| Touchdowns | 23 | 23 |
| Interceptions | 15 | 12 |
| Passer Rating | 134.18 | 136.37 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 962 | 906 |
| Yards | 5,445 | 5,206 |
| Yards / Play | 5.7 | 5.7 |
| Yards / Game | 388.9 | 371.9 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 26 | 10 |
| Yards | 158 | 129 |
| Average | 6.1 | 12.9 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 42 | 20 |
| Yards | 1,204 | 498 |
| Average | 28.7 | 24.9 |
| Touchdowns | 2 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 57 | 63 |
| Yards | 2,390 | 2,516 |
| Average | 41.9 | 39.9 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 12 | 15 |
| Yards | 279 | 115 |
| Touchdowns | 2 | 1 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 16 | 8 |
| Lost | 6 | 6 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 66 | 83 |
| Yards | 612 | 659 |
| Yards / Game | 43.7 | 47.1 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 33:03 | 26:57 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 203 | 186 |
| Conversions | 92 | 67 |
| Conversion % | 45.3% | 36.0% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 16 | 25 |
| Conversions | 9 | 13 |
| Conversion % | 56.3% | 52.0% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 69 | 44 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 60 | 37 |
| Score % | 87.0% | 84.1% |
| Touchdowns | 43 | 27 |
| TD % | 62.3% | 61.4% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 24 | 21 |
| Made | 20 | 15 |
| Pct | 83.3% | 71.4% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 53 | 47 |
| Made | 51 | 47 |
| Pct | 96.2% | 100.0% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 3 | 1 |
| Made | 1 | 0 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.