Fourth Down Data
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TA&M

Texas A&M

AggiesBalanced
Southeastern Conference7-6#25 (+5.79)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

81· BOverall
Offense
74· BRating
56· CPer play
55· CConsistency
44· CBig plays
Defense
81· BRating
79· BPer play
80· BConsistency
Situational
47· CRed-zone O
34· DRed-zone D
65· C3rd down O
50· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.003
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.073
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.029
Defensive EPA/play
-0.055
lower = better
Off Success Rate
47.2%
Def Success Rate
43.1%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.3%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
22.7%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.084
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.051
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.58

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.30
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.29
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.74
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.05
own return game
Return Defense
-0.20
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#25
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
model 1 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
#24
market 1 higher
Recruiting Rank
#4
recruiting 21 spots higher
66 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Texas A&M ranks among all FBS teams in 2023 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
53th
Opp-adjusted defense
84th
Offensive EPA/play
57th
Defensive EPA/play
80th
Offensive success rate
60th
Explosiveness
44th
Defensive havoc
97th
Points per drive
77th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Michigan2019OA +0.070 / +0.125similar: TD drive rate, rushing offense, defensive EPA3692Purdue2026OA +0.017 / +0.004similar: defensive EPA, TD drive rate, defensive success rate3633NC State2018OA +0.065 / -0.007similar: turnover rate, pass defense, rushing offense3634Iowa State2017OA +0.100 / +0.099similar: run defense, rushing offense, offensive success rate3555Houston2025OA +0.036 / +0.057similar: defensive success rate, defensive EPA, offensive EPA351

2023 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs New Mexico52-10W-38.5W49O
2@ Miami33-48L-7.0L--
3vs UL Monroe47-3W-36.5W53.5U
4vs Auburn27-10W-8.5W51.5U
5@ Arkansas34-22W-6.5W53.5O
6vs Alabama20-26L+2.0L46.5U
7@ Tennessee13-20L+3.5L55.5U
9vs South Carolina30-17W-14.0L54.25U
10@ Ole Miss35-38L+3.0P53.5O
11vs Mississippi State51-10W-19.0W43O
12vs Abilene Christian38-10W----
13@ LSU30-42L+11.3L66O
18@ Oklahoma State23-31L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
5-6-1
45.5%
O/U Record
6-5
54.5%
Straight Up
7-6
53.8%
Home ATS4-2
Away ATS1-4
Favorite ATS5-3
Underdog ATS0-3
Last 5 ATS
PWLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off72thRush Off44thRed Zone Off48th3rd Down Off66thPass Def67thRush Def76thRed Zone Def35th3rd Down Def50th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.02659th-0.05377th
Red Zone-0.01048th+0.04335th
Third Down+0.27166th+0.17050th
No Garbage Time+0.02857th-0.05781th
First Half+0.09973th-0.02767th
Second Half-0.04436th-0.07979th
Early Downs-0.06337th-0.07167th
Passing Downs+0.12572th-0.00767th
Standard Downs-0.03044th-0.08376th
Goal to Go-0.12422th-0.01453th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 48.3%Rush 51.7%
Havoc/Game
16.4
Havoc Rate
26.1%
TO Margin
-0.2
Explosive/G
14.3
Yards/Game
406.9
Pts/Drive
2.58
3rd Down%
43.4%
3&Out%
15.7%

Team Statistics

2023 season totals across 13 games — Texas A&M vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatTexas A&MOpponents
Scoring
Points433287
Points / Game33.322.1
First Downs
Total289214
Rushing11173
Passing150123
Penalty2818
Rushing
Attempts456421
Yards1,7701,414
Yards / Carry3.93.4
Yards / Game136.2108.8
Touchdowns239
Passing
Attempts426365
Completions274217
Completion %64.3%59.5%
Yards3,5202,696
Yards / Attempt8.37.4
Touchdowns2419
Interceptions109
Passer Rating147.62133.74
Total Offense
Plays882786
Yards5,2904,110
Yards / Play6.05.2
Yards / Game406.9316.2
Punt Returns
Returns2711
Yards32468
Average12.06.2
Touchdowns11
Kickoff Returns
Returns2237
Yards399851
Average18.123.0
Touchdowns02
Punting
Punts4269
Yards1,7262,825
Average41.140.9
Interception Returns
Returns910
Yards53143
Touchdowns12
Fumbles
Fumbles1921
Lost54
Penalties
Penalties77108
Yards591957
Yards / Game45.573.6
Time of Possession
Per Game31:2428:36
Third Downs
Attempts175171
Conversions7655
Conversion %43.4%32.2%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1917
Conversions117
Conversion %57.9%41.2%
Red Zone
Trips6136
Scores (TD + FG)5330
Score %86.9%83.3%
Touchdowns3620
TD %59.0%55.6%
Field Goals
Attempts3522
Made2616
Pct74.3%72.7%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4931
Made4931
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts23
Made01
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →