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ISU
Iowa State
CyclonesBalancedBig 12 Conference8-5#23 (+12.26)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
83· BOverall
Offense
75· BRating
72· BPer play
70· BConsistency
74· BBig plays
Defense
84· BRating
72· BPer play
71· BConsistency
Situational
51· CRed-zone O
54· CRed-zone D
67· C3rd down O
54· C3rd down D
How grades work →2017 is the earliest season the model grades — first-year numbers run a touch noisier than later seasons.
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
+0.100
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.099
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.043
Defensive EPA/play
-0.103
lower = better
Off Success Rate
47.5%
Def Success Rate
42.6%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
25.0%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
21.2%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.146
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.060
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.24
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-0.02
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.13
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.15
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.03
own return game
Return Defense
-0.03
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#23
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
model 3 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#57
model 34 spots higher
2 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Iowa State ranks among all FBS teams in 2017 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense82th
Opp-adjusted defense84th
Offensive EPA/play73th
Defensive EPA/play73th
Offensive success rate67th
Explosiveness75th
Defensive havoc69th
Points per drive61th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1San José State2022OA +0.004 / -0.025similar: defensive EPA, passing offense, turnover rate3942Notre Dame2021OA +0.071 / +0.132similar: passing offense, defensive success rate, havoc rate3883Houston2025OA +0.036 / +0.057similar: TD drive rate, havoc rate, defensive success rate3814San José State2020OA +0.014 / +0.027similar: rushing offense, TD drive rate, defensive EPA3805James Madison2023OA +0.036 / +0.058similar: passing offense, offensive success rate, TD drive rate362
2017 Schedule & Results
13 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Northern Iowa | 42-24 | W | +3.5 | W | 67.5 | U |
| 2 | vs Iowa | 41-44 | L | +3.5 | W | 49 | O |
| 3 | @ Akron | 41-14 | W | -10.0 | W | 63 | U |
| 5 | vs Texas | 7-17 | L | +5.0 | L | 62 | U |
| 6 | @ Oklahoma | 38-31 | W | +31.0 | W | 61.5 | O |
| 7 | vs Kansas | 45-0 | W | -22.5 | W | 62.5 | U |
| 8 | @ Texas Tech | 31-13 | W | +6.5 | W | 66.5 | U |
| 9 | vs TCU | 14-7 | W | +7.5 | W | 48 | U |
| 10 | @ West Virginia | 16-20 | L | +3.5 | L | 59 | U |
| 11 | vs Oklahoma State | 42-49 | L | +7.5 | W | 60.5 | O |
| 12 | @ Baylor | 23-13 | W | -7.5 | W | 49.5 | U |
| 13 | @ Kansas State | 19-20 | L | +2.5 | W | 50.5 | U |
| 18 | @ Memphis | 21-20 | W | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
10-2
83.3%
O/U Record
3-9
25.0%
Straight Up
7-5
58.3%
Home ATS4-1
Away ATS6-1
Favorite ATS3-0
Underdog ATS7-2
Last 5 ATS
WLWWW
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | +0.037 | 71th | -0.107 | 74th |
| Red Zone | +0.003 | 51th | -0.025 | 54th |
| Third Down | +0.092 | 68th | -0.039 | 54th |
| No Garbage Time | +0.043 | 71th | -0.093 | 71th |
| First Half | -0.012 | 52th | -0.074 | 62th |
| Second Half | +0.087 | 83th | -0.140 | 81th |
| Early Downs | -0.024 | 54th | -0.098 | 76th |
| Passing Downs | +0.099 | 75th | -0.165 | 83th |
| Standard Downs | +0.003 | 62th | -0.072 | 65th |
| Goal to Go | +0.022 | 57th | -0.208 | 79th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 52.8%Rush 47.2%
Havoc/Game
13.9
Havoc Rate
20.1%
TO Margin
+0.8
Explosive/G
16.6
Yards/Game
386.0
Pts/Drive
2.24
3rd Down%
39.2%
3&Out%
23.8%
Team Statistics
2017 season totals across 13 games — Iowa State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Iowa State | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 380 | 272 |
| Points / Game | 29.2 | 20.9 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 274 | 259 |
| Rushing | 77 | 96 |
| Passing | 160 | 148 |
| Penalty | 37 | 15 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 427 | 460 |
| Yards | 1,470 | 1,664 |
| Yards / Carry | 3.4 | 3.6 |
| Yards / Game | 113.1 | 128.0 |
| Touchdowns | 16 | 10 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 477 | 422 |
| Completions | 300 | 283 |
| Completion % | 62.9% | 67.1% |
| Yards | 3,548 | 3,096 |
| Yards / Attempt | 7.4 | 7.3 |
| Touchdowns | 27 | 23 |
| Interceptions | 9 | 12 |
| Passer Rating | 140.28 | 140.99 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 904 | 882 |
| Yards | 5,018 | 4,760 |
| Yards / Play | 5.6 | 5.4 |
| Yards / Game | 386.0 | 366.2 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 20 | 16 |
| Yards | 181 | 91 |
| Average | 9.1 | 5.7 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 29 | 31 |
| Yards | 576 | 737 |
| Average | 19.9 | 23.8 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 1 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 66 | 73 |
| Yards | 2,677 | 3,011 |
| Average | 40.6 | 41.2 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 12 | 9 |
| Yards | 286 | 106 |
| Touchdowns | 3 | 0 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 8 | 16 |
| Lost | 1 | 8 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 57 | 93 |
| Yards | 516 | 877 |
| Yards / Game | 39.7 | 67.5 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 30:16 | 29:44 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 186 | 190 |
| Conversions | 73 | 77 |
| Conversion % | 39.2% | 40.5% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 19 | 17 |
| Conversions | 14 | 8 |
| Conversion % | 73.7% | 47.1% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 52 | 42 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 45 | 35 |
| Score % | 86.5% | 83.3% |
| Touchdowns | 32 | 26 |
| TD % | 61.5% | 61.9% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 22 | 17 |
| Made | 17 | 12 |
| Pct | 77.3% | 70.6% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 45 | 31 |
| Made | 45 | 30 |
| Pct | 100.0% | 96.8% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 2 | 2 |
| Made | 1 | 1 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.